Can the centre hold?

By Gavin Bowd

The result last Saturday was a triumph for the "yes" campaign. In Northern Ireland, 71 per cent said yes on the highest electoral turnout ever seen. In the Republic, a staggering 94 per cent voted for the abandonment of the south's constitutional claim on the territory of Northern Ireland. At the King's Hall in Belfast, where the count took place, there were bizarre scenes. Constitutional politicians mingled with -- but did not directly acknowledge -- the representatives of Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries. "I've never seen so many terrorists," remarked one Republican, who declined to give his name. At the announcement of the result, there was euphoria on all sides. The recalcitrant "no" campaigner, Reverend Ian Paisley, was chased out of the building by a crowd who called him a "dinosaur" and worse.

There are certainly grounds for optimism in Northern Ireland. Territorial claims have been abandoned; the principles of democratic consent and non-violence have been, it seems, accepted. A centre-ground has emerged, spanning the Official Unionists, the predominantly Catholic SDLP and the non-sectarian Alliance Party. Sinn Fein and the small parties representing Loyalist terrorists have declared that the "war" is over. To add to what Bill Clinton has called the "springtime of peace", the Northern Irish economy is outperforming the rest of Britain and stands to gain from a "peace dividend".

But there is never a simple majority in a province as divided and warped by violence as Northern Ireland. It is doubtful whether the centre can really hold. If David Trimble, leader of the Official Unionists, was able to carry a slim majority of Ulster Protestants, he faces vigorous opposition from Paisley's Democratic Unionists as well as from rebels in his own party, including the young and hopeful Jeffrey Donaldson. Trimble managed to swing the Protestant community because of assurances given by Tony Blair that Sinn Fein would not be able to take seats in the new assembly or have ministerial posts unless the IRA began decommissioning weapons. However, the IRA has adamantly refused to decommission, and this weekend Sinn Fein leaders reiterated this refusal, asserting disingenuously that the British Army should give up its weapons before any progress could be made. If there is, as seems likely, a fudge on the weapons issue, then the majority of Protestants may well turn against the new peace settlement.

On the nationalist side, the moderate SDLP, which was a key mover in the peace process, looks likely to be eclipsed by Sinn Fein at the elections to the Northern Irish Assembly in a month's time. The SDLP's ageing and ailing leadership will be the cruelly ironic victims of their negotiating success. Sinn Fein now has a cloak of respectability because of its commitment to the peace process, as well as the IRA cease-fire and Gerry Adams' meetings with Bill Clinton. Adams and his comrades, who only a few years ago could be seen carrying the coffins of IRA terrorists, seem to be "amnestied" by the Good Friday agreement: any reminder of their violent associations is denounced as "counter-productive". Sinn Fein can imagine itself waiting serenely for the realisation of its aim of a United Ireland as Catholic population growth takes its effect at the ballot box.

However, the emergence of Sinn Fein as the principal representative of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland will be too much for the Unionists to swallow. In the meantime, other obstacles to a lasting peace will appear. The annual sectarian parades this summer will provide flash points that will put to the test any power-sharing. Republican splinter groups will seek to disrupt the agreement: already, this weekend, a car carrying explosives was intercepted by police in the Republic.

Many platitudes have greeted Saturday's referendum result: the people of Ireland have chosen "the future" over "the past", "hope" over "despair", as if, indeed, the Ulster people had previously been a ragbag of masochists and psychopaths. However, the agreement could be seen to work against any "normalisation" of Northern Irish politics. According to the settlement, any legislation must be approved by a majority of "Loyalist" and "Nationalist" communities. This rule automatically marginalises those categorised as "Other". This unfortunate constitutional category includes the Alliance Party -- the oldest supporters of power-sharing -- and people such as ecologists and socialists, who campaign on a non-sectarian basis.

The much-lauded mutual recognition of the "two traditions" cannot signal the end of history as it necessarily nurtures a version of the past. It will be a long time before we see Protestants and Catholics as "United Irishmen" again.