An Israeli bulldozer razes the home of the Shkirat Palestinian family from the Arab East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Jabal Mukaber on Monday. On the same day Israeli police and troops demolished three Palestinian houses in East Jerusalem, claiming that their construction was carried out without the necessary building permits
(photo: AFP)

Waiting for Yassin

By Graham Usher

Ten days on, he remains there, and speculation is rife as to who or what is stopping the sheikh coming home.

The Israeli press believes the answer is obvious. According to the Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot on 12 June, Egypt has refused to grant Yassin a transit visa, allegedly to cut Hamas down to size and "belittle Yassin's success abroad". This explanation is roundly rejected by the PLO. "We want Yassin to come back and no party should put obstacles in his way," said Fatah Central Committee member, Hani Al-Hassan.

It is a view shared by several Hamas leaders, especially in Gaza. They believe the delay in Yassin's return is less to do with a "joint Israel-Arafat conspiracy" than with the arctic distrust that currently runs through relations between Israel and Egypt. Although Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has said he has guarantees from Israel that Yassin will be allowed to return, Egypt reportedly wants these guarantees in writing. Without these, the fear is that Israel will block Yassin's entry into Gaza at the Rafah border, causing a political scandal that will serve as a magnet for the Islamist opposition forces.

Egypt's hunches may be right. While various Israeli figures (such as President Ezer Weizman) have said that it is better for Israel to have Yassin in Gaza "rather than roaming freely around the world causing more damage", as of Monday Israel had taken no official decision over his return. Unless permission is granted, Yassin will not be going home.

Beyond such shenanigans, however, the main question is what will be the political impact of Yassin's trip on Hamas-Palestinian Authority (PA) relations, still smouldering in the wake of the killing of Hamas military leader Muhiedin Al-Sharif in Ramallah last March.

Neither Arafat nor the PA has been especially enamoured of the regal treatment Yassin received in such "anti-PA" capitals as Damascus, Tehran and Khartoum. This could mean relations might be tense if and when Yassin returns. But, says Islamist intellectual, Ghazi Hamad, it could also mean the reverse. "The success of Yassin's trip at both the official and popular levels should signal to the PA that is not merely an opposition, but a real movement with deep roots in the Arab and Islamic world," he says. "The message therefore is that the PA should rethink its policy towards Hamas."

There are some signs that such a rethink is in the offing. Last Thursday, at a special subsidiary session of the PLO executive, Arafat announced that he would start "consultations" with all Palestinian factions in readiness to form a new PA government by 25 June. Arafat had been given a deadline by the elected Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) to respond to its demands for a government reshuffle or else face a no-confidence vote in his existing cabinet.

Speaking on Voice of Palestine Radio on 1 June, PA presidential secretary, Tayeb Abdel-Rahim, made it clear that Hamas would be included in the "consultations". Other PLO executive members went further. "Nothing would make me happier than for Hamas to join the government," said head of the PLO's Refugees Department Assad Abdel-Rahman. "Given the current state of the peace process, we need all the Palestinian forces, including Hamas."

Hamas has already made it clear that it will not join any PA government "as long as the current situation is constrained and controlled by the restrictions of Oslo." But, says Hamas leader Ismail Abu Shanab, this would not preclude "consulting" with Arafat about the government reshuffle. Nor, believes Ghazi Hamad, would it rule out the prospect of reaching some kind of "understanding" with the PA on the vexed issue of Hamas's advocacy of the armed struggle against Israel.

"It would be difficult, if not impossible, for Hamas to reach an official agreement with the PA on the question of military actions," he says. "But I believe Hamas is ready to reach a compromise. It won't be an official declaration, but rather an understanding in which Hamas will refrain from military actions for a year or more so as to not give Israel any pretext for not proceeding with the peace process."

According to both Hamas and Fatah sources, a "compromise" along these lines has the support of Yassin and, flushed with the success of his recent tour, would carry considerable influence within all streams of Hamas were he to advocate it. But the "understanding" would come with a price, says Hamad.

"Yassin will demand in return that the PA release all prisoners, reopen all the closed Islamic institutions in Gaza and not pursue Hamas members wanted by Israel."

Should the PA respond positively to these demands -- and so resist Israeli and US pressure for a crackdown on Hamas as part of any deal in connection with Israel's second West Bank redeployment -- then Yassin's return will augur not renewed confrontation but, as Hamad hopes, "a new era in PA-Hamas relations".