Gearing up for October

Predictably, Saddam had much to say about the "dilemma of the sanctions... threats and conspiracies... ill-intentioned schemes" by Iraq's enemies. He also vowed that Iraqis would remain steadfast in the face of the sanctions whatever the sacrifices and would never bow to pressure.

Iraq's relentless campaign to get the sanctions lifted has to date failed. It was only natural then that Saddam took the offensive, saying that if the sanctions were not lifted soon Iraq would have second thoughts about cooperating with United Nations weapons inspectors. He did not spell out what Iraq would do if the sanctions were maintained but the threats were a reminder of several previous crises that erupted between Iraq, the United Nations and the United States over the past eight years.

In his remarks, Saddam mentioned a letter that Iraq's Revolutionary Command Council sent to the UN Security Council on 1 May. The message said Iraq would reconsider allowing UN weapons monitors to oversee the destruction of its weapons of mass destruction if the sanctions were not lifted soon. "We tell them in the name of the great Iraqi people that they are deluding themselves and should draw lessons from the past...," Saddam said. "The letter was not only an outcry of protest but an alternative strategy if other options fail to bring life back to normal," he added.

The address, which inaugurated Iraq's first satellite television broadcast, seemed to set a deadline for the Security Council to lift the sanctions by the end of this year when the issue comes up for review in October. Will Saddam take the United States, the strongest opponent to lifting the embargo, to the brink once again?

Indeed, the past few weeks have shown disturbing signs that the problem, defused earlier this year by a last-gasp accord brokered by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, is far from resolved. Earlier this month, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wrote an article in the New York Times in which she made it crystal clear that the US will veto any attempt to lift the sanctions until it is satisfied that the Iraqi government has complied with relevant Security Council resolutions. She went as far as to say sanctions would remain in place as long as Saddam remains in power.

On the same day of Saddam's speech, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Clinton administration was seeking broad authority from Congress to plan and mount covert operations against the Iraqi president. The paper, quoting US officials, said the administration had sent a classified notice to Congress to allocate secret contingency funds within the defense and intelligence budgets for the operation. The officials said talks between administration and House and Senate intelligence committee members were being held to determine the type of operation being envisioned. The move followed Congressional approval earlier this year to spend $5 million to set up "Radio Free Iraq" modelled on Radio Free Europe. Another $5 million was reportedly allocated to help any democratic opposition within Iraq.

While Saddam was delivering his address to the nation in Baghdad, Albright's Deputy Assistant David Welsh was holding talks with leaders of the two main Kurdish groups which control northern Iraq, trying to persuade them to bury the hatchet and forge a united front against Saddam. It was the first time a high-level US diplomat had visited the region since Saddam's troops stormed the Kurdish city of Irbil in August 1996 and wiped out bases belonging to US-backed Iraqi opposition groups in the north. Although no details were given, the talks were the strongest sign yet that the Kurds have no desire to make life easier for Saddam.

Then came another surprise. The US administration had reportedly invited Ayatollah Mohamed Baqir Al-Hakim, the leader of the main opposition Iraqi Shi'ite group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Such a visit would certainly mark a major shift in US policy towards Iraq and would probably culminate in US recognition of the Iranian-based Al-Hakim group as a key player in any plans to oust Saddam.

Saddam's real test will be in October when the Security Council must decide if Iraq is to be given a clean bill of health, a precondition for the sanctions to be lifted. Saddam has little alternative but to trigger the kind of crisis that almost led to war with the US and Britain in March. And despite his vow to break the embargo this year, Iraqis seem resigned to the fact that Saddam might have miscalculated yet again.