Alternatives to acquiescence?

By Dina Ezzat

Al-Assad and Moussa: Syrian-Egyptian collaboration aimed at striking a balance for just peace

However, an informed source told Al-Ahram Weekly that Egypt and Syria were once again discussing the possibility of organising a full-scale Arab summit. "This subject was on the table a few weeks ago, but consultations showed greater problems than expected. Now, what Cairo and Damascus are trying to do is to build up the required consensus [for a summit]. It remains to be seen whether they will succeed," the source said.

For the past few years, Egyptian-Syrian relations have been viewed as a cornerstone of inter-Arab coordination. But collaboration between the two countries chilled three months ago as a result of diplomatic moves made by Cairo without prior consultation with the Syrians. These were a joint Egyptian-French initiative for an international summit on Middle East peace and a tripartite conference with Jordan and the Palestinians -- whom Damascus holds responsible for Israel's super-intransigence. But now Cairo and Damascus are warming up to each other again.

"Syria felt that by estranging itself from Egypt, it was isolating itself from wider plans for the region," a source suggested. He explained that Syria is aware that the Palestinians are pursuing declared and undeclared talks with Israel irrespective of results, and that Jordan is pushing for these talks. "Accordingly, as far as Syria is concerned, it is Egypt that is trying to strike a balance and ensure that peace is pursued in a way that does not undermine Arab rights," the source said.

Moussa's Damascus visit coincided with reports of a possible meeting between Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and either Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or his Defence Minister Yitzhak Mordechai. According to Abdel-Wahab El-Darawsha, an Arab-Israeli member of the Knesset who visited Cairo, "The US has been mediating to arrange this meeting and it looks like it will be successful." He added: "I think it would be very embarrassing for Arafat to meet Netanyahu but it is quite possible that some time [next week] Arafat will be meeting Mordechai."

Like Syria, Egypt is unenthusiastic about the meeting because it would help Netanyahu appear as if he were negotiating in good faith while, in fact, he is wasting time. According to sources, the Egyptian view was conveyed to Arafat during his latest visit to Cairo.

"But Arafat feels there is very little else he can do," said one source. Indeed, the US has repeatedly requested Arafat to "listen to what the Israelis have to say." Washington even went as far as to tell Arafat that if it went public with the outcome of its initiative, it would do so in a way suggesting that while the Israelis have not shown a positive response to the American ideas, the Palestinians have refused to engage in a dialogue with the Israelis to make these ideas workable.

Moreover, Jordan is pushing the Palestinians to be flexible. The reason, according to one source, is that Jordan has a tacit strategic agreement with Israel to keep the peace negotiations going in return for an Israeli promise of military support for Amman in case of military action taken by Iraq or Syria against Jordan.

Within the same context, Arafat's repeated request for an Arab summit has not been met. "This is not to say that if the Arabs turned around and told Arafat they are having the summit tomorrow he would cancel plans to meet, or make deals with, the Israelis," commented one source. Arafat would, if he could, like to have both, because this would boost his image among frustrated Palestinians.

The question is which is more likely to take place: an Israeli-Palestinian deal on a watered-down version of the US proposal for a 13 per cent withdrawal from West Bank territory, or an Arab summit aimed at forging a unified stand on scaling down relations with Israel?

Some sources suggest that a deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis appears more likely. On Tuesday, asked if Cairo was expecting the Palestinians and Israelis to cut a deal in the near future, Moussa did not exclude all possibilities. He said, "We don't know the details of the negotiations that took place in Oslo. We are not sure about the offer made by the Israelis in terms of [the nature of withdrawal] and other [accompanying] conditions. But it all depends on what the Palestinian leadership would decide."

According to Moussa, "What really counts is that unreasonable demands [made by Israel] should not be accepted," because any deal that is concluded through exercising pressure on the Palestinians is not going to be credible.

Knowing that the maximum that could emerge from an Arab summit is an agreement to slow down normalisation with Israel and close the few Arab trade bureaus operating in Tel Aviv, the Palestinians might opt for an agreement with Israel. But a source cautioned that this did not mean that an Arab summit would not be convened eventually.

In the view of informed sources, the only regional powers that could keep Netanyahu on his toes are Egypt and Iran. An Egyptian decision to scale down its diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv could leave Netanyahu in the lurch. Also potentially damaging to Netanyahu are warmer relations between the three pivotal Arab countries -- Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia -- and Iran, which is viewed by Israel as an arch enemy. Israeli officials, sources say, are invariably alarmed by news of Arab-Iranian meetings.

Only last month in Morocco, the Iranian foreign minister met with his Egyptian, Syrian and Saudi Arabian counterparts on the fringe of the meeting of the Jerusalem Committee of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC). The meeting dealt with a wide range of issues, including the balance of force and nuclear armament in the region. One source suggested that Tehran is very keen on making such meetings as regular as possible. The Israelis were obviously not amused.

And yet, neither warmer Arab-Iranian relations nor a strong show of Egyptian anger can apparently be used as a successful bargaining chip that could influence the course of negotiations. For their part, Palestinian officials say they have been paying a heavy political price, to the benefit of Hamas, as a result of the continuing deadlock. They add that they need things to somehow move -- as soon as possible.