Zeroual's surprise

By Amira Howeidy

But the abruptness of his announcement prompted speculation about the real reasons behind the decision. The most popular scenario so far explains his decision as being a by-product of the power struggle between the army generals who propelled him into power before he was elected in 1995. Analysts point to the war of words that took place in the press between Zeroual's personal advisor, former General Mohamed Betchine, and supporters of Chief of Staff Mohamed Lamari.

"Zeroual's decision should not be a surprise to anyone who watches the Algerian scene closely," said Mohieddin Amimour, a member of parliament. "Pressure was brought to bear on him, but we shouldn't believe that the power struggle is solely responsible for this," he told Al-Ahram Weekly.

According to Amimour, "there are still those who want a share of the ruling cake, even after the [1995 presidential and '98 parliamentary] elections." But Zeroual's policies on violence and Algeria's Islamic groups, especially the outlawed Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), has been a major bone of contention with the military elite.

"During his era, acts of violence and massacres were not attributed to 'fundamentalist Islamic groups' as some wanted, but Zeroual himself referred to them as 'armed terrorist mercenaries,'" explained Amimour. "This significant distinction in itself marks a policy not too many were pleased with," he added.

Zeroual, a 56-year-old army general, was Algeria's former defence minister before his election in 1995 as president with 61 per cent of the votes. The candidates who ran for the presidency in 1995 are now the Algerian press's nominees for the elections scheduled for next February. These are Mahfouz Nehnah, leader of the Islamic-oriented Movement for a Peaceful Society (MPS), formerly Hamas; Said Saadi, leader of the Berber Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD) Party; and Reda Malek, head of the National Republican Rally (NRR). Ahmed Taleb Al-Ibrahimi, foreign affairs minister during the Houari Boumedien era, remains another strong nominee.

However, none of Algeria's political parties, which have been engaged in emergency meetings since Zeroual's speech, have announced their candidates for the upcoming elections. The pro-government National Democratic Rally (RND), which constitutes a parliamentary majority, will announce the date of its annual conference. A party president will be elected at the conference. An RND source who spoke to the Weekly said that the party's president would then run for the presidency of the nation.

But Amimour believes that none of these names are "realistic" enough, adding that Zeroual's popularity "grew immensely" in the Algerian street after his speech. A well informed source who requested anonymity told the Weekly that there are attempts to convince Zeroual to run for re-election. "The other options are too weak for Algerians and for the country itself, which is still in a state of chaos."

The crisis in Algeria was triggered by the army's decision to scrap the 1992 elections that the FIS was poised to win. The violence which was unleashed by this action has resulted in approximately 85,000 deaths according to independent human rights groups. Officially, the violence is blamed on the radical Armed Islamic Group (GIA). But the rise in the death toll and the increasing frequency of massacres provoked several international organisations, including the United Nations, to demand independent investigations into the violence. The first UN delegation, which visited Algeria recently, presented its 32-page report to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan last Thursday. The report urged the Algerian government to adopt more measures to "enhance democracy, respect for human rights and control the performance of the security forces and army within the frameworks of legitimacy and law."

Although Zeroual was criticised for failing to contain the violence, some argue that he did succeed in establishing a constitutional framework. During his four years as president, Zeroual held parliamentary elections, modified the constitution and released FIS leader Abbasi Madani -- a move which was preceded by a FIS cease-fire.

"It is unfair to view Zeroual, alone, as being responsible for the continuing political crisis," argued Amimour. But NRR leader Reda Malek viewed the early resignation as a "confession of Zeroual's failure" to restore peace in the country. "He was satisfied with establishing institutions without ensuring they pursue their goals" he said.