A triumphant Schroeder left, and a dejected Kohl bows out gracefully Photos: AFP

Euro-socialism triumphs again

By Mohamed Eissa El-Sharkawi

Observers expect a complete break with the past. There is talk that Schroeder will take quarters in Berlin, instead of Bonn, as early as next April -- which is ironic given that it was Kohl who reunited Berlin and longed to govern Germany from its pre-war capital. "It is a complete change and not just a minor change," said an editorial in the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung.

Born in 1944, Schroeder represents the post-war generation. This cigar-smoking, colourful leader, widely regarded as a business-friendly politician who has restored the left to power in Germany, will take the helm and steer the European Union's most populous nation and biggest economy into the 21st century. The SDP is expecting the inaugural session of the new Bundestag to be held on 19-20 October.

This was the worst performance at a general election for Germany's Christian Democrats since 1949 when the German Federal Republic was established. Schroeder represents a break with the past. The new chancellor will be the first of his generation, rooted in the 1960s leftist movement, to lead Europe's economic powerhouse.

Kohl, 68, will be best remembered as the chancellor who united the former Communist East Germany with the West in 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall. But Schroeder, too, is destined to oversee monumental change in Germany, including the government's return to Berlin. He will also have his shot at history as Germany switches from the German mark to the European common currency next year.

Schroeder, the popular governor of Lower Saxony state, has tried to move his traditionally leftist party toward the middle to appeal to the widest possible audience.

He immediately announced plans to form a coalition government. His Social Democrats won 41 per cent of the vote, while Kohl's Christian Democrats won 35 per cent. Schroeder stated firmly that he had absolutely no intention of involving the ex-Communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) in his new government. The former communists won enough votes to stay in parliament but many in western Germany see the PDS as a dangerous relic of the past. Schroeder instead said he hopes to govern with the environmentalist Green Party, which took 6.7 per cent of the vote.

Together the two parties would have 334 seats in the 656-seat German parliament -- a shaky six-vote majority that might not survive differences between the sometimes radical Greens and the more pragmatic Social Democrats. "There is nothing more to say. The voters have clearly decided for a Red-Green coalition," a dejected Helmut Kohl conceded on Monday.

Schroeder has made it crystal clear that the Social Democrats, as the dominant partner in a coalition government, will not tolerate radical pacifist and environmental causes pushed by the Greens.

Political lobbying was already intense on Tuesday for what is widely seen as not just a change in government dictated by an election, but a new era in German politics. Green leader Joschka Fischer is tipped to become vice chancellor and foreign minister. But certain things remain the same.

Schroeder stressed that Germany will remain a "reliable partner" in Europe and would continue to be a pillar of NATO. There will be continuity in the cornerstones of Germany's foreign policy.

The Liberal Free Democrats won some seats in parliament with 6.2 per cent of the vote, but the precise role they will play in Schroeder's Germany remains unclear. Also uncertain is the fate of the country's nuclear industry. Germany's power industry bosses warned the Social Democrats and Greens against making good their campaign promise of scrapping nuclear energy. Nuclear power currently accounts for about a third of the nation's energy needs.

Most observers agree that reducing unemployment is the most important task facing the new government. With record post-war unemployment of more than four million, the German electorate appears to have grown weary of Kohl and his Christian Democrats. East German voters who supported Kohl in the 1990 and 1994 general elections deserted him this time around. To add insult to injury, Kohl was beaten by the SDP candidate in his home district of Ludwigschafen. However, Kohl is expected to sit in the new Bundestag since he was elected as part of the regional CDU list that he headed.

There is little doubt that some parts of the Kohl legacy will survive him. Schroeder inherits a stagnant economy and a country deeply entrenched in Europe. Kohl was instrumental in starting European monetary union.

Meanwhile, Germany's extreme right-wing and neo-Nazi parties failed to win a single seat in the German parliament. The main extreme right-wing parties, the Republicans, the National Democratic Party (NDP), and the German People's Union (DVU), each won less than the required five per cent of the vote, despite pollsters' predictions.

Even in neo-Nazi strongholds such as the former East German region of Mecklenburg-Pomerania -- a region with record unemployment -- the DVU won only three per cent of the vote.

Much of the support of the neo-Nazis is in the economically desolate former communist eastern regions of Germany, where unemployment is double the national average and the job security formerly guaranteed by the communists has given way to the harsher realities of the free market. Stiff competition between the three neo-Nazi parties explained the poor performance of the far right parties.

Schroeder's call for a "New Centre" in the German political arena echoes the "New Labour" politics of Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair. He thus joins a long list of centrist-leaning leaders in power in major Western democracies, including Britain's Blair, France's Prime Minister Lionel Jospin and, some would argue, the US's President Bill Clinton.