Since they will be held under the cloud of the continuing preoccupation with the Monica Lewinsky scandal, November's congressional elections will be both unique and unpredictable. At present, Republicans hold a 228-207 advantage (including one Independent who votes with the Democrats) in the 435-member body. In a normal election year, about one-quarter of the contested seats, over 100, would be close-fought.
This year, however, less than 60 races are considered to be up for grabs. Thus, even under the best of circumstances, it would have been difficult for any major shift to take place. Nevertheless, just two months ago, Democrats were optimistic of their chances of regaining control of the Congress. They had recruited a good field of challengers and erased much of their 1996 debt, leaving the party with enough money to run their November campaign.
Despite the fact that each of the 435 congressional seats are contested individually in separate districts across the United States, Democrats had worked to develop a number of national themes -- protection of social security, health care reform, campaign finance reform, anti-tobacco legislation -- they felt would give their candidates a competitive edge against the Republicans.
Further boosting Democratic hopes that they could win the seats they needed were national polls that showed that voters were favouring them over the Republicans. Armed with these advantages Democrats set out confidently for November. But with the elections now only one month away, they are having difficulty getting their voices heard because both national and local media are focusing such exhaustive attention on the Lewinsky affair. Republicans are aware of this situation and are, therefore, determined to prolong the crisis, at least until after November.
The battle lines for November are thus drawn. Republicans are seeking to nationalise the president's problems and focus the election on issues like "character" and "morality". This has caused some Democrats to express public anger not only at the Republicans, but also at the president himself, whom they have accused of hurting the party's chances in November. Most analysts predict that the 1998 elections will feature the lowest voter turnout in decades. This is also a factor in both parties' political strategies.
Since 1974, the non-presidential year, voter turnout has been less than 40 percent. This year the numbers may be as low as 33 percent. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand, many voters are somewhat complacent. The economy is good, crime is low and the national mood is at a three-decade high. Complacent voters don't vote.
At the same time, other voters are so disillusioned and disgusted by the political mess in Washington that they have "tuned out" of politics. As a result, both parties have directed their attention at activating their hard-core support groups hoping to entice them to the polls in November. Republicans do not anticipate winning Democratic voters over to their side, nor do Democrats hope to convert Republican voters. Republicans are, therefore, directing their message to the Christian fundamentalists, the ideological right-wing and the business community. Democrats, on the other hand, are focusing on African-Americans, labour unions, women's organisations and senior citizens.
This again explains why the political climate has become so partisan and why Republicans are so determined to drag the president's scandal out as long as they possibly can. Their intention is not only to drown out the Democratic message, but also to outrage and activate their conservative Republican base, using ads attacking the president's character and linking their Democratic opponents to him. Some Democrats, especially those in close races, have felt the pinch of this line of attack. With the media hounding them to state their positions on the president's scandal, they have distanced themselves from Clinton and indicated that they would not want him to come to their districts to campaign for them.
Since they are unable to break through the media blackout on issues, Democrats have resorted to old-fashioned direct voter contact to reach their key constituencies. Democrats are urging them to turn out and vote for the policies that will affect them in order to regain control of the Congress. In the past week there have been signs that there may be some danger to Republicans in pursuing their anti-Clinton strategy. Democrats, who initially felt shame and anger at Clinton's behaviour, are now increasingly fed up with the Republicans for continuing to prolong this crisis. And Republicans, in some areas, have become defensive about their party's tactics.
The embarrassing and sordid details of the Starr Report, the released video tapes and other evidence against Clinton are now causing a bit of a public backlash. As a result, public opinion polls are once again showing that the president's approval ratings are going up and congressional approval ratings are going down. And most importantly, for the first time in over a month, the public's approval of Democrats is once again higher than the Republicans' rating. Despite this shift, and despite the fact that there is only one month until the elections, it is still too early to predict the outcome of these most unusual elections. As I have noted, at this point the results of almost 370 of the 435 races are virtually decided with the incumbent Democrats and Republicans certain of victory.
The real election will be for a handful of hotly-contested seats. Between now and November anything can happen. Republicans can over-play their hand, the president and Democrats can be hurt by new disclosures, local or national media can decide to focus on issues and create a debate on the direction of the country, or any number of things might blow up on the local level to influence the outcome of individual races. The final direction of this election will not be clear until the weekend before 3 November and the result will have to wait, once again, until election day.
*The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute.
