Many observers believe that Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ibrahim Anwar is facing charges of corruption and sodomy because he could no longer be trusted to protect Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed's interests.
It is clear that Mahathir was none too pleased with many of Anwar's policies carried out from the middle of 1997 onwards. Since the end of last year, Anwar appeared to take over economic policy, cutting government spending, raising interest rates and tightening liquidity, which arguably exacerbated the crisis and took the economy into recession in 1998.
The straw that broke the camel's back came in early summer, with developments in Indonesia, the subsequent adoption of the reformist slogan and the anti-KKN (corruption, cronyism, nepotism) campaign by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) Youth Leadership, which was seen as being close to Anwar. Although Mahathir appeared to approve of attacking corruption and cronyism, nepotism was too close to the bone.
Several months earlier, the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) was asked to investigate how Mahathir's three sons had managed to gain stock in more than 200 companies by late 1994.
Furthermore, Indonesian strongman Suharto's resignation on 21 May and the continued attacks on the ex-president, who had only recently joined the ranks of Forbes magazine's richest men in the world -- after the sultan of Brunei and Bill Gates -- must have upset Mahathir.
By last year, some of Anwar's enemies had already hatched a "plot" to finish him off politically. At the time, however, Mahathir still felt Anwar was the least problematic option and was not willing to go along with them.
Mahathir could be forced out of office as a result of public pressure in the wake of the Anwar sex scandal. But Mahathir is no Suharto. Many political analysts don't believe he is ready to quit to make way for Anwar. Mahathir firmly believes he is the best person to lead Malaysia -- and many would agree with him.
As for Anwar, he kept his cards close to his chest and didn't take kindly to dissidents who called on him to "lead [Malaysia] out of this darkness". He even went out of his way to explain Mahathir's political concerns. In other words, there is little evidence of any serious effort by Anwar's camp to mobilise public support to try to oust Mahathir.
However, Anwar's qualified criticism was enough to convince Mahathir he was out to replace him.
Anwar's only real strength lies in his popularity, which is based on his charisma and moral standing. This goes a long way to explaining why Mahathir has chosen to try to destroy Anwar's reputation by prosecuting him on charges of sodomy. Given the reputations of many ministers in Malaysia, straightforward charges of adultery would not be enough to damage Anwar's reputation irreparably. But the government is relying on the allegations of sodomy to get the job done.
Nevertheless, the charges are so patently fabricated that it is unlikely they can be made to stick. Furthermore, the government's flagrant disregard for the accepted legal procedure has shocked even those who tend to be blissfully insensitive to such matters.
Popular support for Anwar is increasing quickly as the significance of what has happened sinks in. The arrests of those closest to him in UMNO and related leaders, under the Internal Security Act, have reminded people that Anwar's dismissal is about power, not sex.
As a result, the sea change that is taking place within the country's political culture appears to be irreversible. Even before Anwar was ousted, there was an emergence of a quiet, but widespread, sympathy for jailed Member of Parliament Lim Guan Eng.
Anwar's dismissal and its aftermath have further undermined public confidence in the leader and his regime and swelled the ranks of those willing to say no to the government, thus opening up a new conjuncture in Malaysian politics.
Anwar's forces now have no choice but to build a broad coalition, in which they hope to play a leading role, with existing opposition groups. Given the limited and deteriorating public confidence in the judicial system, most people believe only an electoral victory can reverse Anwar's expected fate. However, this will still be an uphill task.
But the unexpected developments are also forcing the public to consider alternatives, such as reform and the creation of new institutions to ensure a more just society: the legitimacy of many official institutions and the public's faith in them, has been shaken as never before.
Contrary to some pronouncements, this is unlikely to descend into anarchy, but rather, is leading to greater demands for democracy and accountability. While the reform movement may fail, Malaysian politics and political culture will never be the same again.
* The writer is a Malaysian professor of political economy.
