Lahoud gets green light

By Zeina Khodr

Following eight hours of talks, a much-anticipated summit between Lebanese President Elias Al-Hrawi and Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad on Monday saw Damascus give its backing to army commander Gen. Emile Lahoud as Lebanon's next president. "Al-Assad and Hrawi accepted Lahoud as the future president of Lebanon," officials said. But a Lahoud presidency would require parliament to amend the constitution's third clause of article 49, which currently stipulates that first-rank state employees who want to run for president should resign from their post at least two years before an incumbent president's term expires. Hrawi's mandate ends on 23 November.

Hrawi is expected to suggest amending the article when cabinet meets on Thursday. Parliament is expected to ratify the bill before the end of the constitutional deadline for presidential elections. The mainly pro-Syrian parliament is expected to approve the amendment and confirm Lahoud as the country's 10th head of state. The official period for electing a president runs from 23 September to 23 October.

Before the summit, many officials said Lahoud stood the greatest chance of winning because he had the support of the public, deputies and the leaders in Lebanon and Syria. Although Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri and House Speaker Nabih Berri appear to support Lahoud, political sources say they both had other preferences.

Lahoud, a Maronite, is known to be firm and some suggest his military background might carry over into his dealings with Al-Hariri and Berri. Lahoud gained the respect of Syria, as well as the US and France, during his term as commander, which saw the military restructured into a disciplined institution after being divided during the war.

The constitution does not stipulate the head of state should be a Maronite, but that has been the practice since the 1943 National Pact.

In addition, there is a tradition in Lebanese politics whereby candidates do not publicly declare their intention to run nor do they put forward their programmes. Chibli Malat, an expert on legal affairs, said "the lack of formal candidates prevents the country from knowing who will be president up until the last days of the vote. So far the contest is all rumours," Malat said.

Observers say the decision on who will be president will be made elsewhere -- a clear reference to Syria -- which has monopolised much of Lebanon's political life since Hrawi's election in November 1989. "Why kid ourselves. A consensus is required, but the Lebanese have a big say in who should be elected president. No one is imposing one on us," Al-Hariri said, hinting at a Syrian role.

Hrawi's six-year term, which ended in 1995, was extended for another three years in light of "dangerous regional circumstances." Observers say regional challenges have not changed, thus opening the way for a possible extension of Hrawi's mandate. "Although Hrawi said he does not want his mandate renewed, the possibility that he remains in office exists," Minister of Agriculture Shawki Fakhouri said. But if Hrawi is to stand another chance, the third clause of article 49, which bans the re-election of a serving president unless he has been out of office for at least six years, will have to be amended.

The election of the president was expected to be used as a way to appease Maronites, who feel their role has been marginalised since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

"The public has virtually no say in the outcome of the ballot," Michael Young, a political analyst, said. "The US and France have expressed their desire to see the election held on schedule and as far as both are concerned, an election is necessary."