Changing the chancellor

By Salama Ahmed Salama

No one outside Germany ever thought they would see the day when the burly chancellor was ushered out of office. The strong hand which Kohl used to managed affairs in Germany gave him influence throughout Europe. And the United States was delighted to find in him an obedient European ally to offset the troublesome French.

Kohl's influence and the respect with which he was regarded increased due to the important role he played in convincing Moscow to withdraw from eastern Europe, and in regaining East Germany, which had remained under Soviet domination for more than 40 years. He then devoted his energies to strengthening European unity and set up an economic and financial system which would allow Europe to exert influence in world affairs alongside the United States. He was also enthusiastic about bolstering the military strength of NATO, despite strong opposition on this count.

But Kohl's victories in Europe and on the international scene cost him the domestic front. The economic policy he adopted to prop up East Germany and the big loans he extended to Russia as compensation imposed a heavy tax burden on the middle classes, and diverted finances from social assistance schemes. His policies, however, did not succeed in lowering unemployment rates in East Germany, nor in the vital industrial sectors in the West. Kohl thus lost much of the support he had won from the East Germans as well as the support of the liberal and educated classes and the moderate wing of the Christian Democratic Party.

Many observers believe that Kohl failed to take stock of the full scope of the changes which have swept Germany in recent years. As he was announcing his decision to run for office once more, a new and powerful trend, unanticipated either in his party or outside it, began to call for his removal from power on the grounds that he had had his chance. His remaining in power would also have represented an obstacle to the modernisation Germany desperately needed in light of new developments in Europe and the world.

When he proved unable to push through the tax and financial reform bill meant for 1998, criticism soared. But Kohl persisted in his belief that the German people hate taking risks. Nor did he take into consideration the length of his tenure as chancellor. He also failed to gauge the strength of his opponents in the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communists, who forged a silent alliance against him and the Christian Democrats. All these factors contributed to his defeat. And in this way, a phase in the history of a Germany divided since World War II came to an end -- only to spark off a new phase, which will involve new political configurations. More surprises await us.