The Iraqi syndrome

The US-British military presence in the Gulf could well lead to another round of bombardment after Ramadan, when "Muslim sensitivities" will not have to be taken into account -- as they were, of course, by the US soldiers who found it amusing to scrawl "Here's a Ramadan present" on the missiles that battered Baghdad and Basra. The US's plans are becoming clearer, as evidenced by Assistant Undersecretary of State Martin Indyk's statement that his country sees nothing wrong with Iraq's being transformed into a "federation".

The Arab world is particularly vulnerable at this time. Libya has expressed worry that the US will turn on Gaddafi's regime next. Clinton's February ultimatum constituted a strong hint that Libya will be the next testing ground for cutting-edge Western military technology.

Arafat, too, is facing increased opposition, as Israel tramples on the remains of the Wye Memorandum, and the May 1999 deadline vanishes into thin air. The future can only be bleak: the alternatives to Netanyahu do not bear contemplation, and Netanyahu, if reelected, can only prove more intolerable than he is now. Everywhere in the Arab world, unity is giving way to Balkanisation. In a long and brutal process of fragmentation, Sudan, too, runs the risk of being divided along north-south lines.

Arab officials continue to employ the rhetoric of Arab unity, although unity is not being contemplated as a serious policy option. An Arab summit allowing for some measure of coordination has been blocked repeatedly by numerous disagreements. Only this week, Yemen's call for a meeting to discuss the Iraqi crisis received a lukewarm response.