Acting regionally

By Nevine Khalil

Mubarak and Turkey's Suleiman Demirel embrace during the former's visit to Ankara in early December

On 10 July Egypt and the US launched a strategic dialogue to lay down a framework for coordination and cooperation between the two countries on bilateral, regional and international issues. The dialogue, which Cairo proposed in 1995, aims to establish speedy means of contact between Cairo and Washington when the need arises in order to avoid misunderstandings.

The dialogue's agenda contains numerous issues on which the two countries do not see eye to eye, including Washington's backing of an intransigent Israel, Cairo's support for the Palestinians, sanctions on Libya and Iran, military strikes against Iraq and Sudan, nuclear disarmament in the Middle East and US economic aid to Egypt.

Although divergent views are expected between Egypt, a regional power, and the US, a world superpower, both Cairo and Washington agree that "differences do not mean a crisis," as Foreign Minister Amr Moussa put it. Moussa, who along with his American counterpart Madeleine Albright, presided over the dialogue in Washington, said it will give Egypt and the US "the opportunity to adopt a more holistic approach in discussing all issues of mutual interest".

Although President Hosni Mubarak and US President Bill Clinton did not meet in person this year -- despite Clinton's visit to the region in December -- the two were in regular contact, especially at times of crisis.

The US continued its "cowboy" diplomacy in the Middle East, as one Egyptian diplomat put it, and Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan bore the brunt of Clinton's desperate attempts to assert himself as a competent leader in the face of a consuming sex scandal.

The Arab world was caught off guard when the US and Britain attacked Iraq on 16 December, a few days before Ramadan began. The attack was met by overwhelming anger from the Arab masses, which far outweighed the response of their governments.

Egypt, which in the past repeatedly warned Iraq's Saddam Hussein to comply with UN resolutions, expressed "regret" over the deterioration of the situation after the withdrawal of UNSCOM inspectors from Baghdad. As the strikes continued, Cairo's official tone gradually grew stronger in condemning the attacks. Hours before the strikes came to a halt on 19 December, Mubarak sent Clinton a message asking him to "immediately halt all actions against Iraq", while Moussa remarked that UNSCOM head Richard Butler's only mission appears to be "to go to Iraq to make new problems".

Egypt believes that the Iraqi question should be solved diplomatically and that the use of force against Baghdad only undermines the Arab position and serves Israeli aims in the region.

Although staying in close contact with the Palestinians and Arab leaders on the peace process throughout the year, Egypt's role in the process seemed low-key, at least in public. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's anti-peace policies and intransigence destroyed Israel's credibility with many Arab countries, including Egypt, the first country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.

Netanyahu alienated the Egyptian leadership by "not keeping one promise he made" according to Mubarak, but keen interest in achieving peace in the region led Egypt to seek a partnership with France to save the process. An Egyptian-French initiative to hold an international conference to put the peace process back on track made headlines last May. Mubarak and Chirac proposed to gather world leaders concerned with the faltering peace process in order to push negotiations forward in case the US failed.

The conference would exclude the immediate negotiating parties, namely the Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese and Israelis, and would only materialise when US efforts failed to relaunch negotiations on the Palestinian-Israeli track. October's Wye Accords naturally rendered the Egyptian-French proposal unnecessary for the time being.

Although physically absent at Wye, Egypt was in close contact with the Palestinians at the resort talks which emulated the Camp David atmosphere of the peace talks between Egypt and Israel in 1978. Egyptian officials were briefed by the Palestinian negotiators on a daily basis, and were given "advice and help to overcome obstacles," according to Mubarak.

While insisting it was not for Egypt to intervene with or judge Palestinian decisions, Cairo received the Wye agreement coolly, putting emphasis on honest implementation. Mubarak said that Cairo does not "object to the agreement as long as the Palestinians agreed to it. It's their business." In its continued show of support for Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, however, Cairo said it will recognise a Palestinian state if it is declared on 4 May 1999, the date the Oslo Accords expire.

Although Egypt was only involved in the peace process by proxy during 1998, it took centre stage in defusing the Syrian-Turkish stand-off in October. During the week Egypt was celebrating the 25th anniversary of its military victory over Israel, Mubarak had his hands full trying to avert a possible war between Syria and Turkey.

Traditionally strained relations between neighbours Damascus and Ankara deteriorated sharply when Turkey began massing some 10,000 troops on the Turkish-Syrian border in protest against alleged Syrian support of separatist Kurdish guerrillas. Syria, along with most of the Arab world, is suspicious about expanding military cooperation between Ankara and Tel Aviv which began in 1996. Damascus also feels threatened by Turkey's large-scale dam projects on the Euphrates River, which could reduce or block water supplies downstream in Syria.

Mubarak's sudden shuttle diplomacy reflected the seriousness of the situation on the Turkish-Syrian border where any fighting was likely to further disrupt an already volatile Middle East. Cairo, with a full mandate from Damascus, contained the crisis and the two sides signed an agreement on 20 October whereby Damascus promised to cease all support for rebels of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and expelled their leader Abdullah Ocalan.

Bringing the two sides to the negotiating table was as far as Egypt's "confidence building" efforts went. "We are not interfering in the details of the negotiations because they are the responsibility of the two sides," Mubarak said soon after the breakthrough.

Syrian officials had accused Israel of engineering the crisis, but their Egyptian counterparts begged to disagree. "Let us keep separate files separate," Moussa said at the time. Recent reports, however, revealed that Tel Aviv may in fact have passed on intelligence to Ankara detailing the presence of Kurdish rebel leaders on Syrian soil. Although not embracing the idea wholeheartedly, Egyptian officials now say that Israel may have had a hand in fueling the crisis.

Ankara's decision to settle its dispute with Damascus through negotiations and a security agreement was heralded as a step towards improved Turkish-Arab relations in the near future. Moussa recently said that the coming period should witness "concrete and positive progress" in Arab-Turkish ties.

In the regional arena, Egypt not only improved its relations with Turkey but continued its dialogue with another non-Arab member of the region, Iran. A major breakthrough in Egyptian-Iranian relations took place in December 1997 at the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) summit in Tehran, but the exchange of diplomatic missions is not expected any time soon.

Cairo believes that Egypt and Iran "have more to bring them together than to draw them apart," as Moussa put it, but Egypt wants guarantees that the theocratic state will stop exporting its Islamic ideology to states in the region. Already, Tehran is working towards this end through the moderate policies of President Mohammad Khatami, but a more concrete step for Cairo would be for Iran to change the name of Khaled El-Islambouli Street in Tehran. The main street is named after a member of the Islamist Jihad group who assassinated President Anwar El-Sadat in 1981. El-Islambouli was executed.

Tehran's only demand is that Egypt distance itself from Israel, a move which it says will guarantee closer ties with Iran. Both capitals agree that building political bridges between them will take time, and for the time being they have focused on strengthening cultural and economic ties.

The missile attacks on targets in Sudan and Afghanistan in August in retaliation for the twin bombing of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam on 7 August were met with reserve in Cairo. Mubarak had received a telephone call from his American counterpart immediately after the strikes and Cairo chose to navigate a cautious course in reacting. A statement issued the day after the bombing did not refer to the strikes but instead called for a summit-level international anti-terrorism conference, under the auspices of the UN.

As a result of the strikes, tensions temporarily flared between Egypt and its southern neighbour Sudan, which claimed that US warplanes targeting it might have taken off from bases in Egypt. Mubarak rejected the claim as "inaccurate, irresponsible and ignorant". He also took the opportunity to snub Khartoum for its support of terrorism, saying that his warnings against the presence of Egyptian and African terrorists in Sudan had for years fallen on deaf ears.

Except for this one incident, disputes between Egypt and Sudan cooled off during the year, although normal diplomatic ties were not restored. Egypt's hostility towards the Khartoum regime stems from the latter's support of Egyptian Islamist militants, a number of whom made an abortive attempt on Mubarak's life in Addis Ababa in 1995. Khartoum on the other hand, complains that Cairo is giving refuge to expatriate Sudanese opposition leaders working to overthrow Sudan's government.

For Egypt, resolving differences with Sudan in order to secure a steady relationship is a priority. Cairo in fact attempted to mediate the conflict between Khartoum and south Sudan rebels led by John Garang, but has not made much headway.

Other African conflicts and civil wars also figured on Egypt's diplomatic agenda. Egypt's Africa policies were highlighted by Mubarak's participation in the 20th African-French summit in Paris at the end of November. By making an appearance for the first time at such a gathering, Mubarak aimed to underscore Egypt's interests in its home continent, perhaps to offset growing Israeli ties in Africa.

At the summit, Egypt offered to host the first summit of African and European nations in the year 2000, and secured itself a peacekeeping role in ongoing Africans conflicts through bilateral meetings with warring parties in the Great Lakes region and the Horn of Africa.

A positive development for Egypt on the continent was its acceptance as a full partner last fall in the regional grouping of the Economic Community for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), hailed by Moussa as "the most successful common African market".

Again, asserting itself as an active leader among developing countries, Cairo chaired this year's G-15 summit in May in an attempt to steer the developing world towards solidarity in this age of globalisation. Egypt wants to revitalise the group in order that developing countries have a bigger say in the new world order.

The summit scrutinised the Asian financial crisis, sought ways to give emerging economies a louder voice in world trade arrangements, and discussed the means to improve South-South and South-North dialogue. Cairo is also scheduled to host the 10th G-15 summit in the year 2000.

Closer to home, the possibility of convening an Arab summit continued to be cause for speculation throughout the year, but a follow up gathering to the 1996 Cairo summit is still not on the books. Egypt said an Arab summit to discuss the peace process will only be convened when the Palestinians declare that they need it because the process has reached a dead end.

In December, there were again calls for an Arab summit to deal with the military strike on Iraq and the freeze in the peace process, but divisions within Arab ranks prevent a quick convening of a summit. Iraq remains too sensitive an issue, especially for Gulf states such as Kuwait, to achieve a consensus. An Arab dialogue on the peace process might also be held up until the results of early Israeli elections next spring are announced.