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Al-Ahram Weekly 21 - 28 January 1999 Issue No. 413 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 21 - 28 January 1999 Issue No. 413
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Focus Economy Opinion Culture Features Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The limits of reconciliation
By Dina Ezzat and Rasha SaadWhile the Arab states desperately need to establish a unified stance on Iraq at their foreign ministers' meeting scheduled for Sunday, there are still too many constraints for there to be serious hope for anything more concrete than a communiqué.
Indeed, many key foreign ministers, including those from certain Gulf states, may not even attend the meeting, which is to be held at Arab League headquarters in Cairo.
The meeting is likely to concentrate on how to manage the wide-ranging impacts of the present Iraqi crisis, instead of providing possible solutions to it. A plan of action is not likely to result. "Things are very far from that level of work," said one Arab diplomatic source. "There is not enough consensus [yet]."
Diplomatic sources agree in describing the meeting as a forum for consultation, and an opportunity for all Arab countries to find out more about each other's stance on this matter. Iraq would thus realise how far the Arab states are prepared to go to help it out of a crisis which they regard as being essentially of its own making.
Participants are likely to clarify their position on UN-Iraq economic relations. But it is far from certain that any communiqué would have much to say about the thorniest of the issues involved -- arms inspection and Iraqi disarmament.
The differences between those countries which will come to the table are substantial: Iraq wants the recent US-British air strike unambiguously condemned and all existing sanctions lifted; Kuwait wants an official Iraqi apology for the invasion, and a clear recognition of its internationally-accepted borders, on which Iraq has recently been casting doubt in public once again; Yemen wants an all-out Arab summit on regional reconciliation; and Egypt wants an answer to the grievances of the Iraqi people that will not bring Cairo into serious political confrontation with Washington.
This may not sound like much of a basis for agreement, and the discussions will certainly test the diplomatic skills of Secretary-General Esmat Abdel-Meguid as he seeks to overcome the lack of mutual trust.
"But when all is said and done, nobody wants to leave the crisis unattended," said one source, "because it could simply escalate in a way that is harmful to the national interests of all the Arab countries, including the Gulf states."
Sunday's meeting was originally to have taken place only a few days after Iraq suffered a wave of US-British air strikes in December, which caused an uproar in cities throughout the Arab world, as well as raising many unanswered questions about the nature of UNSCOM's inspections, which it seems may have involved collecting military intelligence for the US. However, at the request of the Gulf states, and with the consent of some others, the meeting was postponed, and a new date proposed by Saudi Arabia.
Political commentator Fahmi Howeidi believes that Arab leaders were forced to agree to a postponement, rather than pure and simple cancellation, in order to save face before the mass of their people.
The pressure exerted on Arab governments, including the Gulf states, by their people should not be underestimated, observers say. "Even those regimes that have the tightest grip on their countries do not want to get into a confrontation with their people over the well-being of another Arab people," said one diplomatic source.
As a matter of fact, several Arab capitals, including Cairo, have been urging Washington to make a humanitarian gesture towards the Iraqi people, in order to save US-friendly Arab regimes the embarrassment of being accused of compromising Arab national interests for the sake of American support, diplomatic sources say.
The past four weeks have witnessed a number of partial Arab deliberations in an attempt to ensure the success of Sunday's meeting. The foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Oman have had two rounds of talks to define guidelines for a gradual and calculated dissociation of the Arab stance from that of the US. The Americans are seeking to continue with hardline arms inspections, even though they know that 95 per cent of Iraq's banned armaments have been dismantled or otherwise decommissioned.
There have also been several Gulf Cooperation Council meetings to establish a consensus position on how great a threat Iraq really constitutes, how much money they wish to continue to spend on maintaining the Western military presence in the Gulf, and how far they are prepared to contest American policy in the region.
Other Arab countries were also involved in telephone consultations and exchange of messages.
Yet the outcome of all this activity does not hold out much promise that Iraq will get even half of what it has been asking for. Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems to have hardened its stance in the course of these preparatory discussions, and Kuwait has reduced its involvement in the process to a minumum.
Nor has the Iraqi regime itself done much to help, launching a vitriolic verbal campaign against key Arab states, as Saddam Hussein called on their peoples to rise up and overthrow their ruling regimes.
"Iraq is not at all making it easy for those who want to help," said one informed official.
For his part, Foreign Minister Amr Moussa has been encouraging Iraq to try and smooth the way to greater collaboration: "The brothers in Iraq should try and cooperate with their Arab brothers." He added, "The situation is very sensitive."
As the cameras of the international news organisations converge upon Cairo, and Esmat Abdel-Meguid stands at the airport welcoming his fellow Arab dignitaries, expectations will doubtless mount once again. But, all those present are well aware that at this date any meaningful form of Arab reconciliation is not really on the agenda.
In the words of one political analyst, "The start has to be Iraqi recognition of the mistake they made when they invaded Kuwait -- a kind of public self-criticism that can eventually lead to Arab reconciliation." But, sadly, there is not yet the slightest sign that Iraq is prepared to make such a gesture.
