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Al-Ahram Weekly 28 Jan. - 3 Feb. 1999 Issue No. 414 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 28 Jan. - 3 Feb. 1999 Issue No. 414
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Focus Economy Opinion Culture Features Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Bleak and challenging
By Dina EzzatThe 1998 Al-Ahram Arab Strategic Report paints an uncomfortable picture for anyone familiar with the events of last year in the Middle East. A divided Arab world which has little chance of seeing its unity resurrected, a less than peaceful -- and unfortunately nuclear -- Israel, and a biased, confused and powerful US imposing its own calculations and miscalculations on the Middle East: this is not an optimistic vision of the region's future.
However, these are nevertheless the facts which define the context within which Egypt had and has to deal with regional and international political irregularities, military imbalances, unequal economic development opportunities and, from time to time, its own self-imposed disappointments.
"The Arabs wait and stagnate" is the title given by editor Wahid Abdel-Meguid to his introduction, the greater part of which is dedicated to dissecting the current status quo and mechanisms of Arab/Middle Eastern politics. The gist of his argument is that, despite a few isolated attempts here and there, the Arab countries, faced with a number of serious regional and international developments, have by and large adopted a disastrously passive attitude.
Indeed, according to the findings of the researchers and analysts who produced the report, while America's power in the Middle East has been growing even as its strategic objectives for the region have become less and less clear, and while Israel has been advancing in both technological and human development by leaps and bounds, the Arab world is still punishing itself through mistrust, hesitation and often imprudent reactions.
Consequently, the report suggests, the Arabs have failed to manage their relations with the US as well as they could have, and have been forced to pay the price for this failure: the Arab-Israeli peace settlement is trapped in a vicious circle, despite the Palestinians' heroic attempts to compromise their rights yet further and give away the last of their bargaining chips; Libya and Sudan are still bowed down under the weight of crippling sanctions; and Iraq is being given a textbook demonstration in the techniques of political and military containment.
Throughout all this, the US -- whose strategic mindset is still locked within the parameters of the Cold War -- insists on giving Israel highly privileged treatment, by supporting Tel Aviv's nuclear arsenal and political intransigence. As a result, Washington has increasingly found itself exposed to the great, if still largely ineffective, wrath of the Arabs.
The Wye Plantation agreement is cited by the report as a clear example of poor US management of the peace process, as well as of the constant Palestinian readiness to pay up, no matter what the price. "[In this deal] the Palestinian side succumbed to the Israeli concept of security which labels all operations of armed struggle against occupation as terrorism. Consequently, the Palestinian negotiator dropped the resistance card, even though it is legitimate according to the articles of the UN Charter itself. Moreover, the Palestinian negotiator committed himself to taking all the necessary measures to counter this line [of resistance] on behalf of Israel," the report said.
The 1998 Al-Ahram Arab Strategic Report
It is now time to recognise that the parameters of land-for-peace, as established in the Madrid peace conference, belong to the past. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the report says, will now be settled, if it is settled at all, by the Israeli rule of land-for-security. And it is the failure of Israel to impose this rule on Syria -- the extent of Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights will be determined by the scope of the peace that Israel can secure -- that has kept the inseparable Syrian and Lebanese tracks on hold for yet another year.
It was also another year in which the combination of US political dizziness and Arab political incompetence effectively prevented any solution of the crisis in Iraq. The US persists with economic sanctions, takes military action, ponders over the wisdom of removing Saddam, attempts to remove him, and then starts looking round for new pretexts that would allow it to maintain its military presence in the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Arabs swing between moving closer to Baghdad and giving Saddam the cold shoulder. The result, the report concludes, is that "the Arabs left Iraq with no [political] cover".
Apart from the two chronic problems of the peace process and Iraq, the report also spotlights some other issues, both old and new, on which the Arabs have also shown only a limited ability to act. At the top of the list, comes the Arabs persistent inability to decide once and for all whether or not they are prepared to contemplate the nuclear option in order to redress the balance of power that at present is largely tipped in favour of the Israeli nuclear arsenal. "[In 1998] Egypt made an unusual move when it suggested that it might ultimately adopt the nuclear option if it had to," the report says. This indecision that characterises manoeuvering around the nuclear issue also characterises relations with Iran.
The same would have been true of relations with Turkey, had it not been for the Syrian-Turkish crisis that was finally contained by Egypt's diplomatic and political efforts, leading to a reconciliation that the editors of the report describe as "the most important achievement of Egyptian diplomacy in the past few years".
Is it impossible to overcome these drawbacks in the short term? Not really. The report has a formula to propose in this respect: Let the Arab countries work on those matters that will bring them together, not push them apart. For example, an Arab summit does not have to focus solely on that most controversial issue, Arab-Israeli peacemaking. Instead, it could also consider the common economic interests of the Arab world. Moreover, the Arabs should try to overcome their habitual hesitation in dealing with both Iran and Turkey. The report notes that in addition to the current warmth of Turkish-Israeli relations, there are also "certain signs of a metamorphosis in Iranian-Israeli relations that, if it persists, could lead to an unpredictable shift in regional relations in the next few years."
It is Egypt, the report suggests, that should be the country which takes the lead on these fronts, if Cairo is still keen on maintaining its leading role in the region.
Moreover, as far as the report is concerned, whatever the Arabs do, they should not forget that it is the US which is, and will be for at least the next two decades, the world's sole super-power. The way to more fruitful Arab-American relations, in the opinion of the editors, is through improving relations with the Congress, rather than simply piling on more intensive dialogue with the administration.
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