Al-Ahram Weekly 28 Jan. - 3 Feb. 1999 Issue No. 414
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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An Iraqi Bay of Pigs?

By Khaled Dawoud

After months of attempting to convince the fragmented Iraqi opposition groups in exile to forge a unified movement, the United States named a senior diplomat last week to coordinate efforts by the dissidents to remove President Saddam Hussein from power.

Announcing the move last week, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said that Frank Ricciardone, an Arabic-speaking expert on Middle Eastern and Iraqi affairs, has been assigned the post. Ricciardone, who will be assisted by political and military advisers, was the deputy head of the US mission in Turkey before his appointment.

A day before the announcement, US President Bill Clinton said seven opposition groups will receive some $97 million in military aid and other support which Congress allocated in October under the Iraq Liberation Act. The act, which was signed by Clinton, commits his administration to topple Saddam through aid to opposition groups which Washington believes are ready to work for a democratic government.

But why did the United States explicitly pledge to help in the Iraqi opposition efforts to oust Saddam? In a letter Clinton sent to Congress informing the lawmakers about measures taken to implement the plan, he said a new government in Baghdad was needed to "meet the challenge posed by Iraq and its threats to its people and its neighbours."

Spelling out such an objective can only mean that Washington's efforts to contain Saddam's regime through disarmament, United Nations economic sanctions and political isolation have reached a dead-end. The United States, as a result, is now demanding Saddam's head. But will this policy work?

There are doubts as to how some dissidents living in Europe, the United States and Iran can bring down Saddam's well-entrenched regime. The trouble with this policy is that it seems to lack clever innovations. Nor is it clear on how disorganised opposition groups will implement the plan when they cannot even agree on a unified strategy for change in Iraq.

In addition to lack of the proper mechanism, some opposition groups selected to receive aid from the US have voiced objections and seem reluctant to be viewed as American stooges when they see themselves as freedom fighters.

The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which is the current regime's main opposition group, has said it will not participate in the plan and has called instead for international protection from Saddam. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) also scoffed at the plan, calling it "adventurous." The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has half-heartedly accepted the offer while the Islamic Movement of Iraqi Kurdistan has not made up its mind.

The only groups that have actually welcomed the offer enthusiastically are the Iraqi National Congress and the Iraqi National Accord, two small London-based factions which have been linked to the CIA.

It remains to be seen if backing the Iraqi rebels will be similar in its outcome to the disastrous Bay of Pigs operation against Cuban President Fidel Castro in 1961 or more productive like the help Washington rendered to the Mujahidin in Afghanistan in their war against the former Soviet Union.

Following is a brief background on each of the seven Iraqi opposition groups which the US named as recipients of nearly $100 million to topple President Saddam Hussein.

THE SUPREME COUNCIL FOR THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IN IRAQ: The Iran-based council is an umbrella organisation for several independent and Shi'ite groups which have been trying to topple Saddam's regime for years. The council was established in 1982 with help from Iran which was then engaged in a bloody war with Iraq.

Its main objective at that time was to establish an Islamic state based on the model built by Ayatollah Khomeini. But with the death of Khomeini and his successors being unenthusiastic about exporting an Islamic revolution to neighbouring countries, the council relinquished its quest for an Islamic type of government and agreed with other opposition groups on setting up an elected secular government after the fall of Saddam's regime.

Last month the council's leader, Mohamed Baqir Al-Hakim, said the group is committed to supporting a democratically-elected regime that will represent Iraq's diverse religious, sectional and ethnic groups.

THE KURDISTAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (KDP): Launched in 1947 by a group of Kurdish activists led by veteran leader Mustafa Barzani, it is the oldest Kurdish party. Barzani demanded broad autonomous rule for the Kurdish region within Iraq. The party, which has fought successive Iraqi governments since its inception, succeeded in controlling most of northern Iraq after the Gulf War with the help of Western allies who established a safe haven for the Kurds to protect them against Saddam's forces.

THE PATRIOTIC UNION OF KURDISTAN (PUK): The group was founded by Jalal Talabani in 1975 after he and other leftist members parted ways with the KDP following the Iraqi army's humiliating defeat of the Kurdish revolt.

Today the group controls nearly one-third of the Kurdish enclave while being involved with the KDP in efforts to form a unified government for the northern region.

THE IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS: The congress was established after the 1991 Gulf War by several Shi'ite, Kurdish and Sunni groups and prominent dissidents to coordinate their efforts to topple Saddam. Soon, most of its members quit, claiming the congress's executive leader, Ahmed Chalabi, used a heavy hand in running the organisation and because of his close links to the Americans. Nevertheless, with a small army of dissidents Chalabi managed to launch a guerrilla war against Saddam's forces in northern Iraq. The rebellion was severely crushed when Saddam's Republican Guards stormed their camps in the Kurdish region on 31 August 1996 and killed scores of INC members.

THE IRAQI NATIONAL ACCORD: The group was set up by Ayad Allawi, a former Saddam associate who defected to the West in the 1970s. Its membership comprises former government and Baath Party officials who left Iraq after the Gulf War. The small group, which also claims support inside Iraq, has offices in London and in the Jordanian capital Amman. It is believed to be closely associated with the CIA which finances a radio station and other media activities.

THE ISLAMIC MOVEMENT FOR IRAQI KURDISTAN: A small Islamic-oriented but moderate group founded after the Gulf War. It advocates democracy and human rights.

THE ROYAL CONSTITUTIONAL MOVEMENT: A small group which calls for the restoration of the monarchy which was toppled in the 1958 army coup. Its leader, Sherif Ali Bin Al-Hussein, pledges to establish a democratic government if he is chosen king in a national referendum.

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