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Al-Ahram Weekly 28 Jan. - 3 Feb. 1999 Issue No. 414 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 28 Jan. - 3 Feb. 1999 Issue No. 414
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Focus Economy Opinion Culture Features Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters To declare or not to declare
By Khaled AmayrehYasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, has been weighing up his options for the next few months, during which the Oslo peace agreements will expire and the Israeli elections will be held.
Although Arafat has not made a decision whether or not to declare a Palestinian state on 4 May, he has indicated on several occasions that he may postpone the declaration if he receives certain guarantees from Israel and the international community, particularly the United States, supporting the Palestinians' right to statehood.
Political analysts have noted that in his recent speeches, Arafat has referred to 4 May as merely "an important date" or "a date that can't be ignored", which, they say, suggests he might be willing to let it pass without making an announcement.
Palestinian sources close to Arafat suggested on 24 January that he would be willing to postpone the declaration of a state if Israel agrees to two essential demands: a complete freeze on the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and the implementation of the Wye River Agreement, frozen by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Arafat reportedly made his demands to EU officials who told him it was unlikely the Israeli government would agree to the demands while it was in the middle of a turbulent election campaign.
Palestinian sources said European officials told Arafat that the declaration of a state on 4 May would be disastrous for the peace process and force Netanyahu to take drastic action, including the possible annexation of a large part of the West Bank.
Arafat is most likely aware that he has little chance of getting Europe or the US to pressure Netanyahu to agree to demands that even the former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin had never fully accepted, such as the freezing of Jewish settlements. If this is the case, then why would Arafat make demands that have little chance of succeeding? One possibility is that he wants to be compensated for delaying statehood, and this can only be obtained through the US or the European Union. This is most likely what the Palestinian leader will be hoping for during a visit to the US and Europe, scheduled for early February.
Arafat is expected to argue that 4 May was not a date the Palestinians decided on unilaterally, but one that was stipulated by the Oslo Accords, marking the end of a five-year interim agreement. However, it is thought that Europe and the US will tell him to "swallow his pride" and delay the announcement until after the Israeli elections on 17 May. The EU and the US are aware that Arafat's options are limited and he is, therefore, unlikely to put up a strong resistance.
However, from Arafat's point of view, he cannot come away empty-handed and must have "something" to offer if he wants to maintain his credibility and convince Palestinians to back his decision.
Observers say that "something" could take the form of "a promise" from the US administration to support a Palestinian state at a later, unspecified, date.
According to the latest opinion polls in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, almost 50 per cent of the Palestinians believe it is necessary to postpone the declaration of a state to deprive Netanyahu of the chance to use it as part of his campaign for re-election.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority has criticised Netanyahu's sacking of Israeli Defence Minister Yitzhak Mordechai on 23 January, suggesting that this was one more evidence of the prime ministers' hostility towards the peace process. Yasser Abed Rabbu, the PA's information minister, said Mordechai was the only channel of communication the Palestinians had with the Israeli government. PA officials viewed the former defence minister as one of the few voices of "peace and reason" in the government.
Political analysts are speculating that with Mordechai out of the way, Netanyahu may embark on a military adventure, probably in Lebanon or Iraq (there were rumours last week in the Western media of an Israeli plan to eliminate Saddam Hussein), to boost his electoral chances.
On 25 January, Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, former Israeli chief of staff and founder of the new "Centre Party", revealed that on a number of occasions, he and Mordechai had to rein in Netanyahu, who wanted to launch military operations. For his part, Mordechai warned that Netanyahu might order Mossad to carry out "dirty missions" in order to increase the prime minister's popularity and help his re-election.
