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Al-Ahram Weekly 4 -10 February 1999 Issue No. 415 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 4 -10 February 1999 Issue No. 415
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Book Fair Economy Opinion Culture Features Living Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Three nations, four days
By Ibrahim Nafie
President Mubarak's lightning four-day tour of three nations covered an impressive range of economic and political topics. Yet in spite of the diversity of the issues discussed with world leaders, this diplomatic drive was intended to promote two main interrelated objectives: the fulfilment of Egyptian aspirations for progress and welfare, and the realisation of peace and stability in the Middle East -- an indispensable condition for economic development.
If these objectives have been the consistent framework of Egyptian domestic and foreign policy throughout the '80s and '90s, current regional and global changes have imposed their own agenda on President Mubarak's tour. The global recession precipitated by the Asian financial crisis and its implications with respect to globalisation naturally dominated the economic meetings in which the president participated, while the stagnating peace process and the questions of Iraq and Kosovo were the obvious candidates for concern in his political discussions.
We turn first to Davos, the site for the meetings of the World Economic Forum, an organisation of no small consequence as it is financed by some 1,000 international companies with a combined capital of over $3,000 billion -- equivalent to one fifth of the GDP of China, or one sixth of the GDP of the Arab world in 1998. Davos was the natural forum for Egyptian diplomacy to voice its concerns over the inherent contradictions, discrepancies and pitfalls of globalisation.
Egypt, as a leading nation of the Third World with an emerging market economy, while intent upon integrating its market into the world economy, has certain legitimate reservations, which the Egyptian delegation accompanying President Mubarak delineated clearly on behalf of other Third World nations. The experience of globalisation in the past two years has highlighted sharply the fragility of a system in which the sudden flight of capital precipitates ripples extending from the centres of financial investment to countries dependent on the market demand in these centres. The recent drop in oil prices in oil-producing nations engendered by the economic crisis in Southeast Asia epitomises the dangerous domino effect capital flight from one area of the world can have on the economic stability and living standards in another.
In his meetings in Davos, therefore, President Mubarak was keen to urge for certain buffers against the drastic economic fluctuations to which Egypt and other Third World nations are inherently vulnerable. The first was some guarantee of a reasonable share in the international market for locally produced products. President Mubarak emphasised the need to protect domestic production against unfair competition and arbitrary protectionist measures.
Secondly, the president called for the formulation of a mechanism to protect emerging investment markets in Third World countries against the detrimental effects of the unrestricted financial investment flows. No sooner does such investment sense some problem, no matter how fleeting, than it recoils, precipitating a sudden cycle of increased demand for foreign currency, a drop in the rate of local currency, loss of confidence in the local economy and a further decline in investment.
Finally, the president voiced the Egyptian conviction that, if Third World nations are to respond positively to the demands of globalisation and integrate effectively into the international economic order, governments and international agencies must offer them practical encouragement. The systematic exchange of expertise intended to allow Third World governments to assume a strong and effective role alongside the private sector in making the necessary transitions should be one of several mechanisms enabling Third World countries to overcome the difficulties ahead. Beyond these concerns, however, the Egyptian presence at the international forum at Davos ensured that the voice of the Third World would have a stake in formulating an equitable global economic order.
In political discussions, the stagnating peace process, now held hostage to the Israeli elections, occupied centre stage. Paris was the scene of the most intensive talks President Mubarak held on this subject, given the special relations between Egypt and France as well as France's position in Europe. Specifically, these talks focused on the joint French-Egyptian initiative to hold an international conference in the event that the US peace initiative fails to achieve the objectives outlined in the Wye River Memorandum. Certainly, as 4 May approaches, the Franco-Egyptian initiative will assume greater urgency and could require discussion at the broader European level.
The thorny Iraqi question has engendered a spate of international initiatives, from the French suggestion to reformulate the Security Council international inspection team to the Russian initiative to lift the embargo on Iraqi oil exports. There is also a Canadian initiative to assess all questions related to Iraq as well as a proposal before the UN Security Council in which various international agencies will be charged, according to their specific areas of expertise, with inspection tasks in Iraq. The common denominator in all these initiatives is the universal conviction that it is impossible for UNSCOM to resume its former functions. The only two dissenting voices are those of the US and the UK which, in addition to advocating the return of UNSCOM, have been waging a war of attrition against the Iraqi regime intended to isolate it internationally and to create a domestic opposition that will ultimately bring it down.
The Egyptian position on this is very clear, and was voiced again in Ankara. Egypt is thoroughly committed to the resolutions adopted almost unanimously by the Arab League at the meeting of Arab foreign ministers held on 24 January, with only Iraq objecting. The most pertinent of these resolutions here is that calling for the creation of an Arab follow-up committee on Iraq, responsible for consulting with the Security Council. This committee would advocate the rejection of recourse to military force, and of intervention in Iraq's domestic affairs. The Arab countries, as their resolutions make clear, are keen to ensure a constructive relationship between Iraq and the Security Council. In order to help bring this about, the Council should supervise directly the implementation of all its resolutions. The Arab follow-up committee has already met in New York, at the level of the permanent representatives of Arab UN members, in preparation for beginning its work with the Security Council.
Finally, the crisis in Kosovo imposed itself on the talks and consultations the president and his aides held during the tour. The deterioration of the situation in that region following the Racak massacre that claimed the lives of 45 Kosovars has prompted an intensification of military and diplomatic drives to address the tragedy at the level of NATO and the EU. In addition, the Contact Group on Yugoslavia is to hold a decisive meeting on Saturday, to determine the diplomatic and military fate of the region. The Egyptian position on this is explicit. The situation in Kosovo cannot be allowed to continue; the massacres there must be brought to an immediate halt.
The Egyptian stance on Kosovo is entirely consistent with President Mubarak's drive to advocate the interests of the underprivileged and the oppressed, be they Egyptians, Palestinians, Iraqis or the defenceless civilians suffering in Kosovo.
