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Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 February 1999 Issue No. 417 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 February 1999 Issue No. 417
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Special Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A brotherly war
By Mohamed KhaledThe recent renewal of hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which began again on 6 February following an eight-month break, has generated deep concern in both regional and international circles for the stability of the Horn of Africa. This round of fighting, unlike that which was seen last May, has already expanded to include three fronts -- in the west, the centre and, now, to the east as well.
This new front marks an escalation in the conflict, which last week was confined to Badme and the central Tsorona area, where the Ethiopian army says it has captured key Eritrean strongholds, killing over 7,000 enemy soldiers. Such claims have been firmly denied by Eritrea, which in turn claims that its forces have won the upper hand, killing thousands of Ethiopian troops.
Each side accuses the other of re-igniting the war after a string of mediation efforts by foreign diplomats failed to secure a peaceful resolution. Recent fighting around Assab has also raised the spectre of Ethiopian making a play for the strategic Red Sea port.
Assab was a key outlet for Ethiopian goods until May, when war between the two countries forced Ethiopian companies to reroute their trade through ports in nearby Djibouti. Experts say there is no indication that the Ethiopians have massed a force capable of punching through and on to Assab. But the Eritreans have deployed 65,000 troops on the eastern front, which is the most distant from Asmara, as well as being the most difficult region for them to defend. However, an Ethiopian official contacted by Al-Ahram Weekly denied his government intended to occupy Assab: "That would mean an attack on Eritrea's independence, which is something we are not running after."
Since the last round of fighting, there have been various initiatives to bring about a peaceful solution, but they have all failed. Early efforts by the United States and Rwanda to broker peace came to nothing. In November, the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) presented an 11-point peace plan, which provides notably for Eritrea to withdraw from disputed positions, the deployment of peace keepers and neutral delineation of the border, but Asmara still reserves its position on it. "The OAU proposal was put forward for discussion," Mohamed Omer, the Eritrean ambassador to Cairo, told the Weekly. "We agreed on some points, while we reserved our position on others, which we think need further discussion and clarification." Yet the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi, stressed that the only guarantee of avoiding further hostilities and reaching a peaceful solution was the full and rapid implementation of the OAU proposal. This would have meant, in particular, the withdrawal of Eritrean troops to the positions they held on 6 May 1998 and the return of Ethiopian administration to the areas thus liberated. "The proposal has received wide international endorsement, including the support of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union," said Zenawi.
The cause of all this fighting is officially some 2,000 square kilometres of land along the ill-defined borders between the two countries. However, some analysts say its roots lie deeper, in political and economic differences between the former brothers-in-arms who united to topple Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. Eritrea went on to win de facto independence from Ethiopia, unopposed by the new regime in Addis Ababa, after a 30-year war of liberation.
It is widely believed that the coalition between the two groups involved in bringing about the change of regime in both countries, the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), did not manage to resolve the ideological differences between them. It is also believed that those Ethiopian interests which pushed former Emperor Haile Selassi and his successors to occupy Eritrea, still prevail. The bitterness that accumulated over the 30 years of war between the two countries remains a significant ingredient in present-day relations, even though it was largely masked by the six years of good relations which ensued following the official independence of Eritrea from Ethiopia.
Some analysts claim that Zenawi, when he was leader of the TPLF, planned to merge the Ethiopian region of Afar with the Eritrean region of Dankalia which is inhabited by Eritrean Afars. The resulting single region would then have been granted self-rule. As both provinces face onto the Red Sea, their union would have secured a maritime outlet for Ethiopia dominated by Ethiopian Afars. However, according to analysts, EPLF leader Issiaas Afeworki saw through Zenawi's intentions and acted to abort his plan. It is this reversal, they say, which laid the seeds for the present atmosphere of mistrust between the two allies, and which ultimately lies behind the current fighting.
Last May's hostilities were not the first: there was a limited confrontation in 1997, which, according to Omer, was "contained".
For some observers, Eritrea's independence is itself the main bone of contention between the two countries, because it deprived Ethiopia and its 55 million people of access to the Red Sea ports. But according to Omer, "Ethiopia continued to enjoy a free-of-charge service in all Eritrean ports." Another factor often cited to explain the war is that, in 1997, Eritrea abandoned the Ethiopian birr and created its own currency, the nakfa, thus creating turmoil in cross-border trade. Yet this reason too is rejected by the Eritrean ambassador: "The decision to create our own currency was not a surprise. It was decided since 1994, but was effective only in 1997. Moreover," he added, "as an independent country, we have the right to our own currency."
It would appear that neither side is prepared for a long-term war. Much good will has been expressed by both, though a peaceful settlement still seems a long way off. Ethiopia has indicated that all it wants is to win back territory occupied last year by Eritrea, and claims it has no interest in gaining land. "We are still open for more discussions to bring about a peaceful settlement of the dispute," said Omer. "And we believe that any settlement should not be at the expense of the other side."
