Al-Ahram Weekly 25 February - 3 March 1999 Issue No. 418
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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Dealing with the deadline

By Dina Ezzat

Following the death of Jordan's King Hussein, Egypt is likely to play an increasingly central role in regional peace-making. Hussein was a pivotal figure in the forging of last October's Wye River agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It is an achievement his son and successor, Abdullah, is unlikely to emulate.

Jordan's new monarch will be reluctant to anger the Arabs by continuing his father's controversial policy of close relations with Israel. He will also be unwilling to anger the United States, his principal political and economic supporter, by promoting greater Arab involvement in Jordanian political discourse.

Consequently, it will fall to Egypt to be both a better listener, and a more forthright spokesman, in discussions with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, the Israelis, the US and other concerned members of the international community on issues such as the declaration of a Palestinian state, and that declaration's timing.

Egypt therefore has some delicate calculations to make. There are only three months to go before the 4 May deadline for the end of talks on the final status of the occupied territories -- and yet the talks have not even begun. If Egypt insists on the 4 May deadline, it risks angering the US, while if it encourages the Palestinians to be more conciliatory, it is likely to antagonise further an already disappointed Syria. The issue is particularly sensitive due to divisions between the Arab nations resulting from the Iraq crisis. As a result, the Arabs are hardly in a position to provide Arafat with any serious support if he should choose to go ahead with declaring his state despite American objections.

The situation is further exacerbated by Israel's May parliamentary elections, in light of which its future peace commitments must remain an open question. When King Hussein passed away last month, the deadline for implementing the Wye Accord -- which he had persuaded Arafat to sign at the cost of considerable concessions to the Israelis -- had also passed. As the focus of Israeli public attention shifted to the upcoming elections, progress with the Wye commitments simply ground to a halt.

Following a visit to Cairo by Arafat on Saturday, Foreign Minister Amr Moussa had some strong things to say about the projected Palestinian state.

"We believe, like the vast majority of the international [concerned] parties, that peace cannot be complete without a Palestinian state, that is, an expression of the Palestinians' right to self-determination," he told reporters after attending talks between President Hosni Mubarak and Arafat.

Moussa also chose to be overtly critical of Israel's position -- which the Americans support -- that a Palestinian declaration of an independent state on 4 May would be a unilateral move violating the text and spirit of the Oslo accords.

"The right of self-determination is, by definition, a unilateral fact, and one for which the people concerned are the sole decision-maker," stated Moussa. Therefore, he added, "it is wrong, and it is against international law, to argue that the establishment of the Palestinian state would be a unilateral act that could be vetoed."

Moussa explained that the Palestinians and the Arabs had previously been prepared to discuss dates with the Israelis because of the commitment to the peace process shown by the governments of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres. "But now things are different. As a result of current Israeli policy, we are pretty much convinced that the Israeli politicians [now in power] will veto the establishment of the state if they are offered a context in which both the Palestinians and Israelis have to agree on a date. This is unacceptable. What is acceptable is for the parties to work with a sense of fairness and credibility, so that the Palestinians can have their rights."

This was perhaps Cairo's most strongly-worded statement yet on the issue of a Palestinian state, although Egyptian officials are in no way opposed to the proposed delay. Indeed, over the past few days Moussa has said several times that Cairo is involved in lengthy discussions and consultations to weigh the pros and cons of the suggested delay, "without, in any way, advising or pressuring the Palestinian president to take or alter any decision on the issue of timing."

In forging a position, Cairo has of course to take into consideration Arafat's real intentions and calculations. Unfortunately, these are far from clear to anyone, even Egypt. What is clear from the experience of the past few years is that Arafat is exactly the kind of man who would enter a meeting with US officials with a hardline position and emerge with a very conciliatory deal. The Wye Memorandum is often cited as one of many examples of this dubious "bargaining technique".

As far as the state declaration is concerned, sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that, to date, Cairo does not believe that a "limited one-time delay" would be "a bad choice, either from a tactical or strategic perspective".

In addition to the US-Israeli veto on the 4 May date, and the lack of forceful Arab support, the European Union has also made clear that it does not see much point in the Palestinians' insisting on this deadline -- a view which has been repeatedly conveyed to Cairo, as well as to the Palestinians.

During a recent visit to Egypt, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer suggested that with regards to the 4 May deadline, "It is important to find a way of preventing this from having a negative impact on the peace process, especially in view of the upcoming Israeli elections." According to Fischer, whose country currently holds the presidency of the EU, "the decisive role is that of the US. There is no competition with the US. It is impossible." Instead, Fischer recommended pursuing the implementation of the Wye agreement while continuing closed-door discussions.

The focus of these discussions is to find a formula which would allow the Palestinians to declare their intention of extending the deadline until 31 December and, in return, receive guarantees of some form of support for the delayed declaration of their state.

According to one diplomatic source: "We [in Egypt] have to be realistic about our options. We never want to be more royalist than the king."

Egyptian officials, speaking both on and off record, agree that the decision ultimately rests with the Palestinians. They are also adamant that Cairo will not hesitate to support them, whatever decision they finally take.

Related articles: Bilateral momentum Crucial dates

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