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Al-Ahram Weekly 25 February - 3 March 1999 Issue No. 418 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 25 February - 3 March 1999 Issue No. 418
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Honeymoon from hell
By Holger EhlingHow long does a honeymoon last? In politics, 100 days are normally granted to a newly-elected government -- time to sort itself out and embark on the task of enacting its election promises.
When the new German government was elected last October, expectations were high. The incumbent conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their emblematic chancellor Helmut Kohl seemed tired. Every single programme that had been touted to reform a creaking economy had come to a standstill. The country yearned for a breath of fresh air. It was in this context that the energetic Gerhard Schröder, former prime minister of the federal state of Lower Saxony, was not so much voted into power, as Herr Kohl was voted out.
Four months later, it is clear that the new government has had a honeymoon from hell. The period has been described as a protracted sequence of failures -- and those are the well-meaning comments. Germany's leading news magazine Der Spiegel labelled the coalition a "chaos", while the British Economist desperately asked, "Will the real German government please stand up?" The match of Schröder's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the environmentalist Green Party has clearly not been forged in heaven.
For the opposition, the quarrels, cock-ups and embarrassments of the new coalition have bought precious time to regroup and restructure. And with 18 regional and local elections coming up over the next 12 months, they will have ample testing ground on which to try out new strategies.
It was therefore seen as more than a freak regional accident when, at the beginning of February, the incumbent SPD-Green coalition was ousted from power in elections in the federal state of Hesse. This Bundesland, which is home to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, is the economic powerhouse of Germany, and its reigning SPD-Green coalition, in power for eight years, was perceived as a model for the cooperation of the two parties on the national level.
Is the SPD-Green coalition now a losing ticket? The analysts were quick to point out that responsibility for the spectacular fall from grace in Hesse had to be shouldered in Bonn, and especially by the Green minister for the environment, Jürgen Trittin, who embodies the problems that have beset the government since taking office.
Trittin, aged 44, is certainly one of the most powerful members of Schröder's cabinet. But his brashness and intellectual arrogance, paired with a unique talent for uncoordinated decision-making, have landed him in more trouble than any other cabinet member. The most notable of his gaffes to date was his plan to force the end of nuclear power-generation in Germany by terminating the reprocessing of used nuclear fuel by the end of next year. What seemed like a straightforward effort to stick to his party's election pledges and the SPD-Green coalition platform provoked vociferous protests by both managers and workers in Germany's nuclear industry.
This in itself was hardly a surprise. What caught Trittin off-guard was the reactions of the governments of France and the United Kingdom. Both were alienated by the threat this move posed to lucrative long-term contracts for the nuclear power plants at Sellafield and La Hague (Normandy), and they lost no time in reminding Trittin of get-out clauses which prescribe damage payments in the billions of dollars. Moreover, Britain's Tony Blair and France's Lionel Jospin, Schröder's key allies in his attempt to create a European network of modernised centre-left parties, were reportedly amazed by their German counterpart's failure to control his cabinet.
Even more spectacular than Trittin's gaffes has been the faux pas of Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine, the most powerful member of Schröder's cabinet, in talking publicly about measures for tax harmonisation in the European Union which his government would like to see established during Germany's tenure of the EU presidency. Britain's arch-eurosceptic tabloid The Sun leapt at the opportunity to demonise him, asking whether Lafontaine was not "the most dangerous man in Europe" -- a headline which caused an unprecedented outcry in the German media.
But Lafontaine has not only managed to antagonise Germany's international partners. He has also become embroiled in a series of vicious rows with the federal bank over his remarks on monetary policy, and with the business associations over his suggestion that overtime work be outlawed.
Lafontaine has also, so far, failed to deliver what had chiefly been expected of him: the reform of Germany's tax system, which is riddled with inefficiencies, absurd complications and gaping loopholes. It is a long-standing joke that 90 per cent of all texts on taxation published worldwide are produced in Germany. The average worker sees over 40 per cent of his pay-packet deducted for tax and social security, and for higher-tax payers the amount can exceed 70 per cent. At the same time, various loopholes make it possible for certain companies and the super-rich to pay virtually no taxes at all. But although the SPD was violently critical of the system while in opposition, the clean sweep that was anticipated when Lafontaine took office is nowhere to be seen. Even marginal efforts to plug certain tax loopholes have had to be retracted. A planned reform that would have shifted the emphasis towards taxing energy and natural resource use emerged only in embarrassingly flawed form, after much wrangling within the coalition. And a decision by the German constitutional court which obliges the government to give preferential tax treatment to families with children has saddled Lafontaine with additional unplanned expenditure of some DM20 billion.
Yet despite his failures, Lafontaine is sure to retain his place in the cabinet. As president of the SPD, he wields even more influence and power than Schröder, who was adopted as front-runner for the elections with only grudging consent from the party machine. Surprisingly enough, the chancellor has emerged from his honeymoon from hell blatantly unscathed. A recent poll for Der Spiegel showed that his popularity amongst voters remains at record level: 75 per cent think that he is doing a good job.
Schröder, for his part, is seen as a clear-headed moderator between the warring factions in his coalition. He also openly accepts that the running so far has been far from smooth for his government. By insisting that politics is a continuing process of negotiations, compromises and small improvements, he seems to appeal to most Germans, who do not generally appreciate ideological squabbling and loquacious grandeur. All of which should help him achieve his ultimate goal: to be re-elected.
