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By Zeina KhodrThe tone in Israel always becomes hysterical when military operations go wrong -- and this week was no exception. The Hizbullah resistance movement in occupied southern Lebanon delivered three blows to the Israeli army. Seven Israeli officers and soldiers were killed, including an army general and the commander of an elite paratrooper unit. The losses could not have come at a worse time -- less than three months before the general elections scheduled for 17 May.
Israel immediately declared an all-out war. "Israel will wage a ground, sea and air assault on Lebanon," army chief Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz said, hours after a well-planned operation in occupied Kawkaba in which a powerful roadside bomb on Sunday killed the chief of Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, two soldiers and an Israeli military reporter. Brig. Gen. Erez Gerstein was the highest-ranking officer to be killed in Lebanon since the 1982 invasion. The operation was not in violation of the cease-fire understanding that implicitly legitimises operations against Israeli military targets in the occupation zone, but bans attacks against civilians.
Mofaz spoke minutes after Israeli warplanes went into action, bombing targets in the city of Baalbek, valleys in southern Lebanon and hills in Neemeh, some 15km south of Beirut. There were no casualties.
News flashes interrupted radio and television programmes in an atmosphere reminiscent of Israel's last major offensive in April 1996. "The army has begun responding to the attacks," Defence Minister Moshe Arens said. "We will continue striking with much force," Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said.
Even though the regular targets were hit, Lebanese citizens, particularly in the south, were braced for the worst. Hospitals went on the alert. Schools were closed. "We are taking precautions but we are not easily fazed," Mohamed Ramadan, a resident of the southern front-line village of Barasheet told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We will remain steadfast. This is our land."
Israel released graphic evidence of Sunday's air attacks and spent most of Monday flexing military muscle in southern Lebanon, moving heavy weaponry to the border. But its guns have fallen silent, for now.
"This is just a show," a security source told the Weekly. The Israeli threats were dismissed by politicians and analysts, who ruled out a massive offensive in view of the upcoming Israeli elections.
"Israel is just beating the war drums," Mohamed Mashmoushi, deputy editor-in-chief of the As-safir daily, said. "The Israeli government does not have many options because it does not want to risk anything before the ballot. Officials want to show the Israeli public that they are strong. It is all talk."
Threats of harsh reprisals continued. "Israel will continue the battle against Hizbullah," Netanyahu said following a meeting of his security cabinet on Monday. No concrete decisions were announced but, according to reports, the military were authorised to respond to attacks in a "controlled and effective manner, when and as they see fit".
Israeli analysts agreed that their government does not have a viable military option. However, "if Hizbullah responded to the air raids by firing rockets on Israeli civilians, the government would have an excuse to launch a major operation," military expert Amir Oren was quoted as saying.
Israel had accused Hizbullah of violating the cease-fire by launching Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. The resistance fighters categorically denied the claim and referred to Israeli military reports that missiles aimed at Israeli positions inside southern Lebanon had overshot their targets.
"Attacking occupation troops is our right," Hizbullah's deputy secretary-general, Sheikh Naem Kassem, said. "We have abided by the cease-fire so far."
There were fears that Israel might use the Katyusha claim as a justification for launching an all-out offensive. "Israel is trying to find an excuse to scrap the cease-fire," Mashmoushi said.
The crisis in southern Lebanon, at any rate, was used by Israeli election candidates to score political points. Both Netanyahu and his main rival, Labour Party chief Ehud Barak, said they hoped to bring about an Israeli withdrawal within the year.
"It is clear that the issue has become part of the election campaign," Mashmoushi explained. "Netanyahu is blaming the losses in Lebanon on the cease-fire understanding, which was agreed upon by the former Labour government. They are trying to hold Labour responsible for what is happening in the south. If the agreement did not exist, Israel would have been free to strike anywhere in Lebanon."
The understanding -- brokered by the United States and France -- was reached after Israel launched a 17-day offensive against Lebanon in April 1996.
has even called on Israel to consider a renunciation of the truce, saying it was "bad for the Israeli army".
Tension was defused for the time being due to US and French diplomatic efforts. But the right-wing government in Israel is faced with a dilemma: for the dogs of war, inaction is a sign of weakness. Observers are not ruling out "surgical" strikes against Hizbullah targets, or possible assassination attempts against resistance leaders.
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