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Al-Ahram Weekly 11 - 17 March 1999 Issue No. 420 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 11 - 17 March 1999 Issue No. 420
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Focus Special Features Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Nice to believe you
By Salama Ahmed Salama
A wave of anxiety is currently sweeping the world over the consequences of a total computer system breakdown as we approach the year 2000. This is a problem which has frequently been discussed, even in Egypt. Unless the world finds a solution before that date, it will face an unmitigated disaster: all work will cease and international communications centres, power stations, financial establishments and defence systems will shut down. The media is dealing with the whole issue as if doomsday were nigh.
But what is truly amazing is that while the whole world -- including advanced countries like the US -- sounds the alarm bells, we in Egypt are convincing ourselves that we have solved the problem. The success rates cited have been 78 per cent in all sectors, 100 per cent in certain ministries and 60 per cent in the banking system. This confident estimate is based on a ministerial committee report. So while the world succumbs to an attack of the jitters, we lean back and relax.
It would be nice to be able to believe what officials are saying, and to have confidence in their reports, but the sharp contradiction between the statements being issued in Egypt and the predictions being made in irrefutable international reports does not inspire confidence. This policy of lulling us to sleep without any justification, in fact, could lead to an unprecedented catastrophe. One World Bank report has stated that Egypt needs 500,000 work months and 50,000 experts to find a solution to the problem in the remaining months of the current year; if that is not sufficient, a report has also been put out by a congressional special committee on the disasters which will ensue all over the world if this problem is not solved. The report warns of possible disturbances in several countries, which could result in dangerous terrorist operations, not to mention severe economic problems, particularly in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
According to this report, in countries like France, Brazil and South Korea the breakdown could affect 33 per cent of all establishments, while in Asian and African countries including China, Pakistan, India and Indonesia, breakdown rates could reach 66 per cent. In the US and countries like Switzerland, Britain, Germany and Canada, the rate could reach 15 per cent. The areas most likely to be affected are medical establishments as well as millions of small industries. Because of this, the US authorities are considering the possibility of offering easy loans to these institutions and companies to help them overcome the problem.
It is clear that the inherent dangers posed by this problem depend on the extent to which industries, banks and businesses rely on computers. It seems that what has encouraged Egypt's apparent indifference to the problem is that computers are not in widespread use in Egypt's production sectors. Our dependence on outdated handwritten procedures has freed us from the anxiety club and landed us squarely in another group -- that of undeveloped nations. Perhaps it would have been wiser to honestly explain to the nation that the problem does not concern us very much because we have not entered the computer age! This would have been better than trying to fool people into thinking that we had dealt with a problem the advanced nations have so far failed to solve! At least this would inspire confidence in future official statements.
