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Al-Ahram Weekly 11 - 17 March 1999 Issue No. 420 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 11 - 17 March 1999 Issue No. 420
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Focus Special Features Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Missiles, anyone?
By Sherine BahaaOn a gruelling nine-nation tour of the Middle East, US Defence Secretary William Cohen visited Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt and is scheduled to fly to Israel tomorrow (Friday) before returning to Washington.
The death of the emir of Bahrain, Sheikh Eissa bin Salman Al-Khalifa, five minutes after meeting Cohen on Saturday was an unfortunate start to the tour. Cohen said he was "stunned and saddened" by the death. "We met for about a half hour and I could tell as I was meeting with him that there was something that wasn't quite well," he said. Perhaps in an attempt to refute Iraqi claims that "the harsh words of Cohen killed the late Bahraini ruler," American newspapers carried reports that Sheikh Eissa had suffered from heart problems and felt unwell on Friday night.
During visits to the six Gulf countries, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Cohen sought to shore up support for the almost daily engagements between US and British aircraft and Iraqi air defense batteries in the no-fly zones of northern and southern Iraq.
Washington and London established no-fly zones after the 1991 Gulf War, ostensibly to protect Iraqi Shi'ites in the south and the Kurdish enclave in the north. Iraq does not recognise the zones, saying they are not part of the Security Council resolutions brought against it following its 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Iraq has stepped up its challenge to Western warplanes patrolling the no-fly zones since the end of the latest major US offensive, Desert Fox, carried out in late December.
Cohen said that air strikes would continue "as long as Saddam continues to violate the no-fly zones and tries to break the containment strategy."
Since December's military action, Cohen and top US military officials have intensified visits to the Gulf for discussions with GCC leaders about increased military cooperation, future plans for Iraq and possible Iranian threats.
Ghassan Tahboub, managing editor of the United Arab Emirates' daily newspaper, Al-Khaleej, agrees that there has been a notable increase in visits by US military officials to the Gulf. "There is something cooking in the US administration," says Tahboub. "We know that Cohen is promoting a federal scenario in the north of Iraq. The plan calls for the establishment of a Kurdish entity in the north. However, this entity will neither be independent nor separated from Iraq." The plan does not include the establishment of a Shi'ite enclave, adds Tahboub, so as to avoid the creation of "a hotbed for Iranian influence."
Mustafa El-Ani, a fellow of the London-based Royal Institute for Strategic Studies, regards the regular visits by officials as a reflection of the US dilemma. "The Americans have reached a point where their policy towards Iraq and Iran has collapsed. The dual containment policy is no longer working and certainly there is no clear vision of how they are going to deal with Iraq," El-Ani told the Weekly.
According to El-Ani, the two poles of American foreign policy, the military option and economic sanctions, have been rejected by the GCC members, particularly by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman.
"This leaves the US administration with only one option: overthrowing the Iraqi regime," argues El-Ani. However, the Gulf countries seem reluctant to approve such a move. "There is a genuine feeling in the Gulf that chaos might result from any mis-managed operation," he says.
"GCC want an Iraqi army general to take over. They do not want a weak civilian or a pro-Iranian government in Iraq. They reached the conclusion that removing the regime is a necessity, but finding a suitable replacement is another question," says El-Ani.
According to Tahboub, there are some differences among the Gulf states although they are all agreed on the need to deal with Iraq. "We can talk about a Saudi and a Kuwaiti position on the one hand (as both countries have adopted a tough position on Iraq) and other varied positions within the other four states on the other hand (who have expressed some readiness to deal with the current Iraqi regime)," Tahboub explains.
What the Gulf states definitely want is a way out of the present quagmire. For them, the Iraqi regime is a troublemaker. "The current situation has disturbed the balance of power in the region in a way that would favour the Iranian option," argues Tahboub.
During the tour Cohen announced that the US would sell Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates advanced "Amraam" air-to-air missiles. In Abu Dhabi, Cohen met UAE officials to discuss details of a $6 billion deal for the sale of 80 F-16 aircraft. Yet Cohen apparently abandoned plans for the establishment of an advanced anti-missile system covering all the Gulf states after leaders of the countries rejected the costly scheme.
Until recently the $386,000 supersonic Amraam missile was considered too advanced to be sold to countries outside of the US-led NATO Alliance. It can be fired from beyond visual range and has an active radar that guides the missile to its target. Israel was the first country in the region allowed to buy the missile.
Iran was also on the agenda of Cohen's Gulf talks. He said that Washington wants a better relationship with Iran but that this would only be possible once Tehran withdraws support for terrorism, gives up trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction and stops undermining the Middle East peace process.
In Saudi Arabia, the Minister of Defence Sheikh Sultan bin Abdel-Aziz told Cohen that he planned to visit Tehran on 17 April for talks with the moderate government of President Mohamed Khatami. Cohen reportedly responded by saying that Washington had no objection to Saudi efforts for dialogue with Tehran.
"If they could find ways to build a better relationship but also consistent with building security in the region, then we don't have any opposition to that," Cohen said.
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