 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 March 1999 Issue No. 421 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
 |
 |
|
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 18 - 24 March 1999 Issue No. 421
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
|
|
|
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Still too early to tell
By James Zogby *A few weeks ago, my brother (a political pollster) and I were in the Arab world. In almost every discussion we had with government or business leaders, we were asked our views on the 2000 presidential elections. One prominent political leader asked directly "who will win in 2000, Bush or Gore?" My brother's response was simple: "If the election were held today, George W Bush would win. But the election is not today."
Although the election is over a year and a half away, it is not too early to begin paying attention. The stakes are high and the competition is already intense. This week, Republican Governor George W Bush of Texas and Republican Elizabeth Dole announced the formation of "exploratory committees" for their expected 2000 candidacies. These committees allow individuals to raise money, hire staff, and in general "act like candidates" while not formally entering the race.
The entry of these two well-known Republicans has increased the Republican list of candidates to 10. At this point there are only two Democrats running -- Vice-President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. The polls, though early, are both revealing and interesting. Bush and Dole are, by far, the leading Republicans. At this point, they are the only two who register in double digits. Bush is in the 30 per cent range; Mrs Dole registers between 15 and 25 per cent. None of the other eight Republicans gets over seven per cent.
On the Democratic side, Gore scores around 50 per cent, with Bill Bradley, his lone competitor, getting about 15 per cent support. In match-ups between the leading Republicans and Vice-President Gore, both Bush and Dole lead. Bush bests Gore by 15- 20 per cent; Dole leads by around 10 per cent.
These early numbers mean that Bush and Dole are leading by such a large margin because they are two of the most prominent names in American politics. In fact, a Bush or a Dole has been on the presidential ballot since 1976. The question, of course, is: will Americans support this Bush and this Dole?
What voters do feel is that Bush and Dole are the preferred candidates of the establishment and they may be moderate enough to lead the Republican Party away from extremism. Both have won broad support from party leaders.
But all this support has been won on perception, since neither Bush nor Dole has competed nationally; nor have they presented position papers on the controversial issues of the day. Once they are tested, we will see how real these numbers are. As of now, the high numbers represent a combination of name recognition and a yearning for the party to become more centrist.
Both Bush and Dole can be hurt by positions they take on controversial issues, revelations about their personal lives, or how they react to pressure in the midst of the campaign. Since their current support is so hollow, it can be deflated rather quickly. At present, Bush will be the target for all of his opponents and he will be under rather significant pressure to maintain his leading role.
Gore's numbers are also quite troubling. For the sitting vice-president to receive only 50 per cent support against virtually no Democratic opposition means that he has not yet won the loyalty of his fellow Democrats. For half of the Democrats to want Gore as their nominee means either that there is some unease about his role or that he has not yet established himself as a strong leader.
The Republican/Democratic match-ups also spell problems for Gore. The fact that the vice-president is seen as losing to two individuals, neither of whom are well known, means that he will have to work hard in the next year. Of course, he may turn this situation around. Gore's advisers are fond of pointing out that in 1987, then Vice-President Bush was losing by similar margins to Michael Dukakis and Gary Hart. Bush, who, like Gore, was not known for his charismatic style, emerged from Reagan's shadow, ran a strong campaign and won easily in 1988.
During the next few months, all the announced candidates will be engaged in a number of common pursuits. First, they will be raising money. It is estimated that, to compete effectively, a candidate will have to raise at least $20 million this year. Gore has already set a $55 million goal. On the Republican side, billionaire Steve Forbes has indicated that he will spend as much of his own money as he must to win. This means that front-runners like George W Bush will have to raise big money, and raise it quickly.
Next, the candidates will need to build organisations in Iowa and New Hampshire, the states where the first contest will take place next February. Some candidates have long-standing, effective organisations in these states. Bush and Dole must start from scratch. A candidacy can rise or fall on the outcome of these first elections. If a campaign does not finish in at least the top three after Iowa and New Hampshire, it will be difficult for that candidate to continue. If Bush, does not do in Iowa or New Hampshire as well as his high poll standings it will be perceived as a weakness and a loss, and may well hurt the perception of his candidacy. The candidates will continue to work to line up endorsements from party leaders and to build up their campaign teams with advisors and professionals. They will also develop positions on issue and seek to define themes for their campaigns. Finally, all the candidates will seek to avoid any blunders or miscues that could create an embarrassing press feeding frenzy and doom their campaigns. In the past, many great candidates were destroyed by such blunders.
So much will happen in the next year. Some candidates may emerge, only to be destroyed by a mistake or press scrutiny. Some new forces may yet appear. It is even possible that a third or fourth party will run, especially if a moderate Republican wins that party's primary and angers its Christian right wing. It is, in the end, too difficult to predict the outcome of this election just now. At this point, therefore, it is simply possible to say: "If the election were held today, George W Bush would win. But the election is not today."
* The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute.
