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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 April 1999 Issue No. 426 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 April 1999 Issue No. 426
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Special Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Beyond the Pacific rim
By Mahmoud Abdel-Fadil *The growth spurt of the Southeast Asian economies in the '70s and '80s had a great impact on the entire global economy. It changed the map of international production, altered the mode of international commercial exchange and reoriented capital flows. There was also a proliferation of articles commenting upon and analysing the decline of the US economy relative to the economies of the western Pacific rim. The Japanese technological boom, China's entry as a powerful competitor in the international market, and the return of Hong Kong, one of the Asian Tigers, to the Chinese motherland were among the many factors that prompted analysts to predict that the coming century would be an "Asian century".
Egyptian diplomatic overtures towards the "Asian sphere" were a major strategic move, made in light of changing trends in the global balance of power. The pivotal countries in the rising Asian sphere are Japan, China, South Korea and Malaysia. The unfortunate political circumstances in Indonesia, at the other end of the spectrum, have sapped its energies and capacities as one of the leading Asian nations. President Hosni Mubarak's recent visit to three of the pivotal countries -- Japan, China and South Korea -- was a reaffirmation of Egypt's new eastward orientation.
As a world economic and technological leader, Japan has, above all, attained absolute superiority in electronics, specifically in the production of semi-conductors. These electronic chips are vital to the balance of military and technological power in the world today. Indeed, Japanese economic planners are intent upon maintaining a five- to ten-year technological lead over the US in order to bolster Japan's international political and economic status and secure its superior position for at least the first two decades of the 21st century.
Japan is currently undergoing a transition, from "economic giant" to "fundamental player" in the realm of international politics and economic relations. Slowly and prudently, it is searching for a set of standards that will define the role it should play in the international arena. However much Japanese strategists espouse caution, there is a growing conviction that Japan will not be able to prevail as an economic power if it remains a "political midget". It is becoming increasingly clear that Japan's economic might is incompatible with the political status it gained at the end of World War II.
Japan has also developed a clear vision for reforming the international monetary system to render it more effective and attuned to the needs of both developed and developing worlds. In this respect, Japan is likely to support the initiatives of the G-15, which seeks a more equitable and stable global monetary and commercial order to offset the negative impacts of globalisation on developing countries.
The "Chinese experiment" has unique traits, very different of course from those of Japan. Because of its sheer size and political weight, China is more than just an economic tiger. As a new global bloc in its own right, with its human and historical trajectories and the density of its economic fabric, China is indeed an economic dragon. The vast expanse that is the People's Republic of China now also comprises Hong Kong, the vibrant financial capital. Not only will China's reach soon extend to Taiwan, but there is already a Chinese majority in Singapore and, beyond that, the extensive commercial network operated by Chinese businessmen abroad.
The Chinese leadership is banking on the possibility of exploiting the processes of economic deregulation and calculated assimilation into the global economy to effect a qualitative leap in development. To a considerable extent, the leadership's confidence stems from the fact that it still retains a tight grip on trends in production and savings investment patterns.
Like Japan, China hopes to develop its foreign economic relations in a manner that will enhance its position on the global economic map and, in the long run, serve its strategic objective to gradually develop into a great power. Within this framework, China seeks to explore avenues for economic and technical cooperation with developing countries, notably Egypt and other countries in the Arab world. China also wishes to access new markets in the Third World for Chinese products. At the same time, China is a net importer of petroleum. Faced with an approximately 15 million-ton gap between petroleum supply and demand in 1996, Chinese decision-makers have been seeking secure long-term sources of petroleum supply. This, in turn, should pave the way for the development of mutual economic interests between China and the oil-rich countries of the Arab world.
The Chinese president's visit to Japan in November 1998 opened a new page in the history of Sino-Japanese relations. The president described the joint Chinese-Japanese communiqué issued at the end of that visit as its crowning accomplishment, one which should also help strengthen bilateral relations between the countries. Certainly, closer Chinese-Japanese relations, in spite of outstanding political differences over certain issues, will curtail the ability of the US to exploit these differences in playing each side off against the other.
In spite of the relative weight of the Chinese and Japanese economies, they do not yet pose a challenge to American political preeminence. Still, the first decade of the coming century is certain to bring continued flux in the international balances of economic and political power. During this period, we will find the gradual transition from a US-dominated world order to a more balanced multi-polar order that will most probably consist of the US, the EU (without Russia), China and Japan. It is also possible to conceive that the new "quartet" of great powers could eventually develop into a "quintet", should United Russia awake from its current slumber and impose itself once again on the international arena.
As these major trends and developments play themselves out in the beginning of the next century, Egypt cannot afford to sit and watch. If Egypt is to stake out for itself the most advantageous position possible in tomorrow's global network, it must act now to extend bridges to the rising, dynamic countries of Asia. Asia is, after all, one of the most promising gateways to a more secure economic future.
*The writer is a professor of economics at Cairo University.
