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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 April 1999 Issue No. 426 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 22 - 28 April 1999 Issue No. 426
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Special Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Now the money is on Mordechai
By Graham UsherBilled as merely a warm-up to the main event, the televised debate on 13 April between Israeli premier Binyamin Netanyahu and Centre Party leader Yitzak Mordechai has dramatically refocused attention on the main issue of the Israeli elections: which challenger has the best chance of unseating Netanyahu either in the first prime ministerial poll on 17 May or in the second on 1 June.
Until last week, the safe money had been on Labour Party leader, Ehud Barak, now heading a coalition bloc named "One Israel". Not any more. Against all expectations, the consensus of virtually every Israeli commentator after the hour-long show was that Mordechai had defeated Netanyahu on a turf where the latter has long been seen as unbeatable -- the TV studio. As Israeli columnist Sima Kadmon put it in Israel's largest selling Yediot Aharonot newspaper on 14 April: "Yitzak Mordechai was born again yesterday. The grey, official, restrained and humourless man [Mordechai], who was wont to employ the most worn out clichés in the Israeli lexicon, brandished a magic wand [in the TV debate] and turned the fabulous magician [Netanyahu] into a bunny rabbit".
Mordechai did not succeed by outlining any policy disagreements with his former Likud boss. During the debate, he and Netanyahu barely mentioned their respective visions of a final status deal with the Palestinians, largely because on this score there is precious little difference between them. Netanyahu has ruled out a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza and insists that Jerusalem will remain Israel's "undivided and eternal capital".
As the Likud coalition's defence minister since 1996, Mordechai presided over massive settlement expansion in the Occupied Territories and has long been associated with a "national security map" which returns no more than 40-50 per cent of West Bank territory to any future Palestinian entity. Rather, Mordechai won by focusing on Netanyahu's character.
"The elections are about you," said Mordechai in the debate, and Netanyahu was a leader with "neither truth nor honesty nor integrity". Mordechai accused Netanyahu of being mendacious with his colleagues (which explained why such erstwhile Likud figures as Benny Begin, Dan Meridor and David Levy had left the party under Netanyahu's leadership), and adventurist in foreign policy.
Although never spelled out clearly in the debate, Mordechai alluded several times to "events" in the last three years where, had it not been for his "restraining" influence, Netanyahu's decisions could have pitched Israel into a war in the Occupied Territories and possibly beyond. One such -- discreetly leaked by Centre Party officials to the Israeli press on 15 April -- was Netanyahu's preference for reconquering Nablus following the Palestinian Authority's siege of Joseph's Tomb during the military and popular confrontations between the Israeli army and PA police in September 1996.
As defence minister -- the officials allege -- it was Mordechai who stepped in and negotiated with Yasser Arafat for the besieged Israeli soldiers to be taken out of Nablus under a PA escort.
The question Israeli analysts and public are now pondering is whether Mordechai can perform as well in the elections as he did in the debate. Prior to 13 April, the conventional wisdom was for Mordechai to stand down in favour of Barak prior to the 17 May poll, the better to muster an absolute majority against Netanyahu. Since the debate, the Centre Party has argued precisely the reverse -- that Barak should stand down in favour of Mordechai.
The Centrists base this strategy not simply on Mordechai's TV performance, but on a careful reading of polls showing which Israeli sectors are likely to vote for which prime ministerial challenger. Thus while Barak enjoys solid support among Israel's Ashkenazi (i.e. Israeli Jews of European and American descent) and Arab populations, he fares badly with Israel's orthodox and Sephardi (Israeli Jews of Asian and African descent) populations. Mordechai, on the other hand, not only scores more or less the same rating among the Ashkenazim and Arabs as Barak in any run-off against Netanyahu, but scores higher than the Labour leader among the Sephardim and religious.
For veteran Israeli analyst, Israel Shahak, the conclusion is therefore obvious. "If the priority is to get rid of Netanyahu, then there is only one challenger and that is Mordechai." Barak's dilemma with Israel's orthodox and Sephardi communities was graphically illustrated less than 48 hours after the TV debate. On 15 April, Aryeh Deri -- political leader of Israel's premier Sephardi orthodox movement, Shas -- was sentenced to four years imprisonment and a $63,000 fine after being found guilty last month of accepting bribes during his tenure as Israel's interior minister between 1989-1993. The three judges agreed to stay execution of the sentence until after Israel's Supreme Court had heard Deri's appeal. Shas, meanwhile, announced that Deri would remain its political leader "before, during and after" the Israeli elections.
Most polls show that Shas will at least preserve its current representation in the Knesset of ten seats. This means that whoever is Israel's next prime minister he may find himself negotiating a future coalition government with a political party whose leader is also "a convicted felon". Netanyahu and Mordechai have so far kept a discreet silence on this "problem", preferring to wait until after Deri's appeal is heard. But Barak on 18 April announced that he "will not conduct coalition negotiations with" Deri since "Israel is a country of the law and a ruling has been made". Shas's response was as predictable as it was swift. "If there was any chance that someone in Shas would have voted for Barak, he has now erased it," said Shas Knesset member, Shlomo Benizri, on 18 April.
As the leading party among Israel's Sephardi and orthodox sectors, Shas held the balance of power in Yitzak Rabin's coalition government of 1992 as well as Netanyahu's in 1996. It may do so again in 1999.
