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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Apr. - 5 May 1999 Issue No. 427 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Apr. - 5 May 1999 Issue No. 427
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Focus Special Travel Sports People Features Living Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Dodging the 4th of May
By Graham UsherLeaders of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) met in Gaza for a second day of discussions yesterday, apparently prepared to postpone a declaration of independence beyond Israeli general elections, scheduled for 17 May.
Several members of the 124-member Palestinian Central Council (PCC), a mini-parliament, said delegates were moving towards a decision not to go ahead with plans to declare an independent state on 4 May, when the interim arrangements with Israel expire.
In his opening address on Tuesday, Yasser Arafat affirmed the Palestinians' right to independence but, heeding a plea by US President Bill Clinton, said it is wiser not to take action now. Arafat's remarks were the strongest indication yet that he would prod the Council to postpone a unilateral declaration of statehood and extend peace talks with Israel for a year.
"We are going through a very delicate period in the history of our people, a period during which we cannot afford to make any mistakes," Arafat said. "We don't need to ascertain our state because we are actually exercising statehood."
Mahmoud Sobeih, the Council's secretary-general, said he expected the debate to adjourn later in the day. Asked how long the recess would last, he replied: "Until after the Israeli elections."
"The Council will remain in a state of consultations and meet some time after the Israeli elections," a senior PLO official said.
Most observers -- and a large swathe of Palestinian opinion -- believe that the "final decision" has long been taken. "Nothing will be declared on 4 May," commented former PLO executive member, Abdallah Hourani, sourly, "other than perhaps that it is the day that follows the 3rd and precedes the 5th". Hourani had been one of several "independent Palestinian personalities" invited to the PCC in a show of unity. He declined the offer, refusing to "perform in a play scripted by others".
Other members of the Palestinian opposition were more forgiving. Four leaders of the Islamist Hamas movement -- led by its spiritual guide Sheikh Ahmad Yassin -- attended the PCC on Tuesday as "observers". Their purpose, said Hamas spokesman Mahmoud Zahar, was to denounce the Oslo agreements as a "violation of Palestinian rights" and urge the PLO to declare a state "on any part of liberated Palestinian land".
But Zahar knows a declaration of statehood on 4 May is the least probable outcome of the PCC, regardless of how long it stays in session.
In the last three months, Arafat has visited 54 nations to garner diplomatic backing for Palestinian statehood. For these labours, he has been rewarded in six countries with an upgrading of the PLO's status to ambassadorial level and a recognition by the European Union and Japan that the Palestinians have an "unqualified" right to self-determination, "including the option of a state".
But -- from Brussels to Tokyo -- Arafat has also been warned that a unilateral declaration of statehood on 4 May could not only destroy the Oslo process once and for all; it would massively bolster Netanyahu's chances of winning a second term in the Israeli elections, an outcome much of the world seeks to avoid no less than Arafat.
Essentially the same message was conveyed by President Clinton in a letter dispatched to the Palestinian leader on the eve of the PCC session. While endorsing the right of Palestinians to "determine their future as a free people on their land" and berating "the destructive influence of Israel's settlement policy on the peace process", Clinton counselled Arafat to extend Oslo's interim period to allow for "accelerated" final status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians "with the intention of completing them within a year".
The elected Palestinian Legislative Council -- meeting in Ramallah on 26 April -- criticised the US's failure to exert pressure on Israel to honour its commitments under the Oslo and Wye agreements. Arafat described Clinton's letter as "very important and positive".
No one doubts Arafat's ability to marshal a majority at the PCC against a declaration of state on 4 May. The debate in Gaza is rather likely to hinge on whether the PLO should postpone a declaration without setting a new date or extend the interim period (probably for a year) in line with US and EU wishes.
For Palestinian political analyst, Khalil Shikaki, this last scenario would be "the most frightening scenario of all". It would amount to a Palestinian endorsement of "the current situation", he says, in which Palestinian resistance remains shackled by the constraints of Oslo while Netanyahu is free to build settlements in the West Bank, close Palestinian institutions in Jerusalem and ignore agreements he has signed, the Knesset has approved and the Americans have guaranteed.
In these circumstances, Arafat may quietly urge the PCC to remain in permanent session and take no decisions on either statehood or extending the interim period until after the Israeli elections, a prospect mooted by PCC Chairman Salim Zanoun on 26 April and other members during the session in Gaza. This, says Shikaki, would allow Arafat to get off the hook of 4 May while keeping "some cards close to his chest" ahead of the Israeli election results.
But whatever formula is reached, Shikaki -- whose research centre in Nablus conducts regular opinion polls in the Occupied Territories -- is sure how it will be read by an increasingly cynical Palestinian public. "Any deferral of Palestinians' right to declare a state -- whether it is until after the Israeli elections or beyond -- will be viewed as being neither a Palestinian nor even an international decision, but rather an Israeli decision as taken by the Israeli electorate on 17 May and 1 June," he says.
