 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Apr. - 5 May 1999 Issue No. 427 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
 |
 |
|
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Apr. - 5 May 1999 Issue No. 427
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
|
|
|
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Focus Special Travel Sports People Features Living Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The Kremlin's
By Abdel-Malek Khalil
war of words with NATOA flurry of diplomatic activity dominated the Moscow political scene as a number of foreign officials arrived here to discuss Russia's role as peace-negotiator between NATO and the Yugoslavian leadership. After emerging from a long meeting with American Deputy Secretary of State and special Kosovo envoy Strobe Talbott, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said that the meeting had been "important, substantial and useful", but warned the Americans in no uncertain terms about Russian opposition to the continued assault on Yugoslavia. "Nobody should take decisions which could aggravate the situation," declared Ivanov.
Russian President Boris Yeltsin stressed that Russia was seriously concerned about NATO's air offensive. In a message of solidarity addressed to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, Yeltsin said that Russia's priority was to "support Yugoslavia's sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Republic".
As a result of the US government's leading position as the major warmonger within the military alliance, popular expressions of anti-American feelings are on the rise in Russia. According to recent Russian opinion polls, more than one third of those interviewed singled out the US as an enemy state, while only a minority focused on the NATO alliance as the main culprit in the Northern assault against Yugoslavia.
Although the Russians have historically considered the Serbs as political allies, the opinion polls also show that the Russian people appear to be more anti-NATO than pro-Serb in the context of the present conflict.
The recent bombings have indeed taken a heavy human toll and destroyed much of the embattled country's infrastructure. Besides killing and injuring scores of civilians and hitting a multitude of "soft" targets, including the Serbian Television and Radio Station, three television relays and a number of factories, the bombings have also destroyed all of Yugoslavia's oil refineries, one quarter of the country's oil/fuel storage capacity and half of the airforce's MIG-29 planes.
Another poll, which focused on the effects of NATO's air raids on Kosovo's ethnic Albanian population, found that more than half of the Russians questioned believed the Albanians were fleeing Kosovo to escape NATO bombs. While the majority of the Russian people condemn the bombardment, 86 per cent also believe that Russia should play the diplomatic card only, and not get involved in the armed conflict.
The military, however, have been on red alert, with armed forces' leaders announcing that Russia would be forced to intervene should NATO launch a ground offensive against Yugoslavia.
Despite this muscle-flexing by the top brass, the Kremlin's position has remained ambiguously cautious. Criticising the people's anti-American stand, former Foreign Minister Andrey Kozyrev denounced "the growing anti-American hysteria" as a "dangerous game". "It's like Russian roulette, and the gun is smoking -- with nuclear weapons," said Kozyrev.
Yet when NATO announced it would enforce an international oil embargo against Yugoslavia -- "visiting and searching ships" to prevent oil, arms and other vital supplies from reaching Serbia through ports in neighbouring Montenegro -- the Russian government's response was quick and to the point. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov asserted that his country would ignore the NATO-imposed embargo and continue supplying the Yugoslavian government with oil. "We cannot do anything to worsen the suffering of the people in Yugoslavia and we will continue delivering oil in keeping with our international commitments," he declared.
Former Russian Prime Minister and special envoy to Belgrade Viktor Chernomyrdin concurred. "The blockade is bad. The strikes are bad. When people die, it's bad," he declared on his return from Belgrade Thursday, where he had negotiated a peace plan with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, according to which unarmed UN peace-keeping missions would be allowed to monitor the situation in Kosovo.
Already strained relations between the NATO alliance and the Russian government further deteriorated when NATO bigwigs dismissed Chernomyrdin's plan as insignificant. Western leaders, however, tried to bring the Russians round to their side by assuaging the Kremlin and paying lip service to its peace-keeping efforts. Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy declared he would go to Russia for talks this week, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Moscow had a role to play in ending the crisis.
Many political analysts believe that Russian President Boris Yeltsin is highly conscious of this role. Excluded from the NATO alliance and apprehensive that the West will further extend its military and political hegemony over the Balkans by bombing Yugoslavia into submission, the Kremlin is anxious to play a part in containing the conflict and maintain, at the very least, the stature of a regional power player.
While Yeltsin has defiantly confronted NATO over such issues as the bombardment and the oil embargo, he has also been very careful not to overstep the boundaries and risk seriously antagonising his American creditors. Anxious to extend his credit with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to bail out the bankrupt Russian economy, but also intent on marking out his zone of influence in the Balkans, Yeltsin has skillfully orchestrated an uneasy balancing act between open defiance and low-key cooperation with the NATO powers.
