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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 May 1999 Issue No. 428 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 6 - 12 May 1999 Issue No. 428
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Special Focus Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A moment of opportunity?
By Hoda Tawfik
The pressure to find a diplomatic solution to the Kosovo crisis has intensified, even as NATO pilots are testing their fire power in the campaign against Yugoslavia, and the alliance's commanders are preparing their war inventories for future battles.
Civilians point at damaged homes in downtown Belgrade, early Friday, after they were hit during NATO airstrikes, which killed at least three people and wounded dozens -- including two photographers who covered the event
(photo: AP)
As the air armada intensifies, a flurry of diplomatic exchanges and meetings are taking place that signal, albeit vaguely, that a deal may be in the offing.
NATO's hopes of constructive Russian involvement have been revived, while strikes on strategic targets in Yugoslavia would seem to be forcing President Slobodan Milosevic to inch closer to the allied position. However, so far the Yugoslav President has shown no flexibility at all on Washington's key demand, that the international security force sent into Kosovo should have NATO at its core.
Milosevic would seem to have given some ground this week, when the Yugoslav representative to the UN, speaking to American television, said that his country would accept a United Nations force, that could be lightly armed. Administration officials have interpreted this as a concession, referring to the Yugoslav leader's outright rejection of an appeal from the American head of the international monitoring mission, William Walker, back in December, that the monitors be allowed to carry side arms.
Now, with the Russians back in the mediation process, the major stumbling block remaining is the form that will be taken by the proposed international presence in Kosovo. The United States administration insists that Belgrade must accept a strong NATO military force, and they may still get their way, if Russia decides to come on side.
Officials say Russian support for a Security Council resolution under chapter seven of the United Nations Charter would be a clear signal to Belgrade that it could not hold out any longer. Chapter seven allows the United Nations to send peacekeepers into areas of conflict even when the combatants do not consent.
"The moment chapter seven is approved, the situation for Milosevic is completely changed," said NATO chief of staff, General Javier Solana, speaking to the New York Times. "Then there will be the beginning of a negotiation and the deployment of a peace-keeping force."
The allies believe that Yugoslavia is now isolated. According to senior officials, "With all of Yugoslavia's neighbours supporting allied bombing, Russia's support of a Security Council resolution under chapter seven would lead Yugoslavia to submission."
Thus sure of itself, the United States rebuffed Milosevic's latest gesture towards a truce and peace talks. US Secretary of Defence William Cohen opined that "it was bombs, not good will, that had persuaded Mr. Milosevic to make his diplomatic move."
But Clinton is under pressure from Congress and the Republican party to seize the opportunity. They have urged the President to jump-start peace talks with Belgrade following the release of the three captured US service-men.
Senator Trent Lott, majority senate leader, said, "We should not miss this moment of opportunity, but seize this moment to press for a compromise, after six weeks of bombing."
The administration, however, insists that Milosevic must surrender. Officials suggested that US pressure is now concentrated on the Russian position, encouraging Moscow to adopt the NATO demands and to join in a military peace-keeping force, whose mandate can be worked out through the Security Council, but which would have NATO forces at its core.
US military strategists meanwhile are working for more time to continue the air campaign which Defence Minister Cohen suggests could continue till the end of September. As NATO continues to bomb, the US wants Russia to use its own powerful leverage with Belgrade to get Milosevic to surrender.
It remains to be seen how Congress will react to the peace plan Victor Chernomyrdin has been discussing with President Clinton and US officials. Right now, it fits with the American strategy to continue to cooperate with Russian efforts to find a diplomatic solution, in the hope that with time Russia will find it more congenial to walk in the shadow of NATO and the United States. Yet whatever the dosage of diplomacy and bombs that is finally effective, working out a solution to this conflict is going to take time.
