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Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 May 1999 Issue No. 429 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 13 - 19 May 1999 Issue No. 429
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Books Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The Arab vote
Interview by Graham Usher
Asad Ghanem is a Palestinian political scientist at Haifa University and co-director of the Jerusalem-based Association for Equal Opportunities in Israel. Together with Israeli sociologist, Sami Sootha, Ghanem last month conducted a survey of 920 Palestinians in Israel to assess the Arab vote in the Israeli elections on 17 May and, should there be a second round, on 1 June.
In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Ghanem describes the main findings of his survey and analyses what he sees are now the principal ideological differences among the Palestinians in Israel.
Could you summarise the main findings of your survey?
The main findings are a little contradictory. On the one hand, our survey predicts a higher Arab turnout than usual for elections, with 87 per cent of the 450,000 Arab electorate in Israel saying they will vote on 17 May compared to an actual turnout of 77 per cent in the 1996 elections.
This reflects the general Arab view that they must do everything they can to change the present Israeli government. Most Palestinians now view the former Labour governments of Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin as "positive" compared to the Netanyahu-led coalition, both in terms of domestic policies and in terms of the peace process with the Palestinians in the Occupied Territories.
On the other hand, our survey predicts that only 62 per cent of the Arab sector expressed a determination to vote should there be a second round of elections for prime minister on 1 June. This, I think, reflects the fact that the three main Arab lists will concentrate their efforts for the Knesset elections on 17 May.
Now that Hadash or communist-led list and the Islamist-backed United Arab List (UAL) led by Abdel-Wahab Darawsha are supporting One Israel's Ehud Barak for prime minister, I expect the majority of Palestinians will vote for Barak in the first round. But our survey shows that 24 per cent of the Arab sector will vote Azmi Bishara for prime minister, which, given the opposition to his candidature from Hadash and the UAL, is a real victory for him.
Do you expect Bishara to withdraw before the 17 May poll in order to help Barak defeat Netanyahu in the first round?
Bishara has laid down two conditions for his withdrawal from the prime ministerial race, which I expect he will adhere to.
The first is that the Centre Party's Yitzhak Mordechai also withdraw, since, without this, there will almost certainly be a second round. The second condition is that Barak and One Israel agree to implement those demands common to all three Arab lists i.e. that a Barak-led government stop the confiscations of the IDs of Palestinians in East Jerusalem as well as end all house demolitions in East Jerusalem; that it give municipal status to the 40 or so "unrecognised" Palestinian villages in Israel and that it address land issues of Palestinians in Israel.
Should One Israel agree to these demands, it would not only mean Bishara's withdrawal and so help Barak's election prospects, but would also signal a real change for the Arab sector in Israel.
But if the priority is to get rid of Netanyahu, how do you account for the predicted low turn-out among Palestinians in the second round?
Most Palestinians are aware that any run-off will be between Netanyahu and Barak. But it is very difficult for Palestinians to vote for Barak alone, even if Hadash and the UAL leadership urge them to do so.
Throughout his election campaign, Barak has emphasised his military record in the Israeli army -- a record he achieved in wars against Palestinians both in the diaspora and in the Occupied Territories. He has barely said a word about the rights of the million or so Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Given these emphases, it is going to be very difficult for Palestinians to vote for him after the Knesset elections on 17 May.
What do you see as the main significance of the campaigns of the three main Arab lists in these elections?
I think the main significance is that the three lists are divided less over policy issues than over matters to do with Palestinian identity in Israel.
All three lists agree that Palestinians must strive for equal rights with Jews in Israel. The differences between them is that the three lists conceive of equality in terms of identity. Thus the communists believe that the Arab minority must forge alliance with progressive Jews to transform Israel from being an ethnic state to being a democratic state. The Islamists, who are the main force in the UAL, conceive of identity in religious terms, which pits them not only against Israel's Jewish majority but also against Palestinian Christians, as the recent clashes in Nazareth attest.
Azmi Bishara and his Tajammu list also wants a democratic state or, as he would put it, a state for all its citizens rather than an exclusively Jewish state. But he believes that Palestinians can only progress to this end by recovering their Arab national identity. Hence he lays less emphasis on forging alliances with progressive Jews than on demanding cultural autonomy for Palestinians inside Israel as the means to recover their Arab identity.
Thus the differences between the lists is less over what Palestinians want as citizens of Israel -- they want equality. It is over who we are as Palestinians or Arabs in a Jewish state.
