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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 May 1999 Issue No. 430 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 May 1999 Issue No. 430
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Supplement Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters In quest of stability
By Dina EzzatEgypt is forging ahead with a mediation effort between the Sudanese government and the opposition. In the meantime, it is carefully testing the waters for a parallel mediation attempt between Ethiopia and Eritrea. It has also opened a new chapter of mediation endeavours between the warring Somali factions. But the question remains whether these diplomatic exercises will bear fruit. After all, these are dossiers that Egypt has been working on for some time; and real breakthroughs have not yet been reported.
"These are some of the most complicated files," said one diplomatic source. "The volume of disputes is huge; we know that concrete and good results are not necessarily imminent, but they are certainly possible."
The inter-Sudanese mediation is most likely to progress in the foreseeable future. For one thing, Egypt is exerting greater efforts in this area than the other two. "This is only to be expected, Sudan is of vital importance to Egypt," explained the same source. "We may be uncomfortable to see the situation in Somalia drag on but, for us, Sudan is a different story. Its unity, which is at stake now, is of paramount importance to Egypt's strategic interests."
Another reason the Sudan mediation effort appears to be poised for take-off is the fact that the parties to the dispute themselves are showing signs of readiness to "sooner rather than later" sit together and find a way out. A scheduled three-way meeting between Foreign Minister Amr Moussa and the two Sudanese leading opposition figures, Sadek Al-Mahdi and Osman Al-Merghani, focusing on Sudanese national reconciliation, was cancelled on the latter's request. Instead, Moussa held separate meetings with the two Sudanese politicians. And yet, both Al-Merghani and Al-Mahdi ruled out the possibility of a serious split within the opposition over the nature of the proposed dialogue between the Sudanese opposition and government. And Egyptian diplomats played down any indications of a disagreement between Al-Mahdi and Al-Merghani, following a meeting in Geneva between the former and Hassan Al-Torabi, speaker of the Sudanese Parliament.
A source close to the Egyptian-Sudanese meetings said, "Al-Merghani was just being reserved. He doesn't want to demonstrate unconditional support for the moves made by Al-Mahdi, especially that he himself might be meeting soon with a representative of the Sudanese government." The source added that "this doesn't mean that Al-Merghani is opposed to dialogue or reconciliation."
And John Garang, leader of the southern rebels, could be arriving in Cairo within the coming few weeks for additional talks about the terms of dialogue with the Sudanese government.
"As we get more and more into the thorny aspects of the conflict between the Sudanese government and opposition, we will be seeing press criticism and the cancellation of meetings; but these are the result of the parties becoming more involved in serious give-and-take," an informed diplomat said.
This kind of engagement is certainly lacking in the case of the warring factions in Somalia. "They are not really serious about a national reconciliation, not yet anyway," a high ranking Egyptian official said. But over the past four months, Egypt -- which in late in 1997 sponsored an agreement of reconciliation among many of the warring Somali factions -- is again working on the Somali affair. It has been talking to all of the parties involved in the dispute, including those of the separatist self-declared state of Somaliland which had not previously been on Cairo's diplomatic agenda.
Also, in the case of Ethiopia and Eritrea, a common consent on mending the broken fences is not evident -- at least on the part of Addis Ababa, the stronger side in the dispute.
"The Eritreans are much more willing to go ahead with any serious and committed mediation effort. They frankly told us that they are willing to sit and talk with the Ethiopians," said an informed Egyptian source. It is the Ethiopians who are still holding back. This week, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and the Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki were in Cairo for talks. But the action of Egyptian diplomacy along this front has not been easy. The Ethiopians say that for negotiations to take place, Eritrea will have to pull out its forces from what Addis Ababa says are occupied Ethiopian territories. Addis Ababa, however, is not being very specific about exactly which territories it is referring to. For its part, the regime in Asmara says it does not know which territories the Ethiopians want.
Furthermore, Ethiopian-Egyptian relations have not been particularly warm as a result of Ethiopian allegations of Egyptian support for Eritrea, as well as Ethiopia's displeasure with what it views as a large share of Nile water resources going to Egypt. The Ethiopian press has been criticising Egypt almost on a daily basis.
However, Cairo seems to be willing to put aside any misgivings. "Egypt does not interfere in the internal affairs of Ethiopia, or any other country," said Foreign Minister Moussa. "We [feel confident that we can] ignore the Ethiopian press criticism because we do not think that it [necessarily] reflects the point of view of the Ethiopian government. Moreover, it is inaccurate."
Asked why Egypt thinks it can succeed where other mediation efforts, including those of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), have failed, and whether other African countries, such as Libya, are involved, Moussa responded: "First of all, we are working under the umbrella of the OAU and we are in touch with Libya on this matter. Second, the personal involvement of President Mubarak has often proved to be quite rewarding".
And yet, Moussa warned that for Egypt to get deeply involved in a mediation effort between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the two countries have to show a committed readiness to accept a cease-fire and negotiate in good faith. Ethiopian and Eritrean diplomatic sources have confirmed Cairo's fears: Eritrea is ready, while Ethiopia is not yet.
Egypt is unhappy with the almost non-stop disputes and conflicts that are taking place to its south. Despite the political differences that Cairo may have with the ruling regimes in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and fragmented Somalia, officials say Egypt is genuinely keen to see an end to these conflicts. Cairo is worried that if they continue unchecked, they could lead to foreign intervention, causing greater instability.
