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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 May 1999 Issue No. 430 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 20 - 26 May 1999 Issue No. 430
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Supplement Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters What is victory?
By Hoda TawfikAs the war in Kosovo drags on without any sign of a negotiated settlement, United States President Bill Clinton is urging the American people to be patient. He insists that the present strategy will, in the end, be successful. Meanwhile, the American airmen who fly the raids against Serb positions are well protected, as they speed across the region some 1,500 feet above the ground. Not that that height can offer much protection to the people below them.
"NATO must win" has become the constant theme here of the present stage of the conflict. More than the fate of the people of Kosovo, what matters most to the White House now is the Alliance's credibility. But the biggest question of all remains unanswered: What is success? And how can we define victory, when the results of the air campaign have so far proved catastrophic for everyone involved?
The US had stated that its aim was to stop the flight of refugees from the province, but this has not happened. It also said that it intended to destabilise Milosevic and his government, but it has not achieved this either. No sooner had the US finally convinced Moscow to stop describing Kosovo as the fuse that could ignite World War Three, then President Clinton had to watch many days' worth of diplomatic headway evaporate in an instant, when US war planes "accidentally" bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade a week past Friday.
When the war began, NATO had initially sought to exclude both Russia and China from any negotiations, so as to prevent them from blocking the offensive through the UN. Yet, ironically, it is Russia that has dominated the diplomatic scene, and in which in the wake of the Chinese Embassy bombing has led the salvage operation. China, too, has been pursuing a diplomatic track, calling for the airstrikes to be lifted and the dispute to be brought before the United Nations Security Council, a position with which Russia agrees. Sergi Lavron, Russia's ambassador to the UN, has said that no resolution on a Kosovo peace plan could be adopted by the UN Security Council as long as NATO continues its bombing campaign against Yugoslavia. "Until the bombing stops, a political settlement is impossible," he told a news conference.
It seems increasingly clear that there can be no negotiated settlement to the crisis without the cooperation of both Moscow and Beijing. The US, however, is deeply averse to letting up the military pressure at this point in time, in the absence of some very significant move by Milosevic. Meanwhile, we are reassured that NATO will prevail and that time is on its side. Those who ask what the cost may be in human life and misery are systematically sidelined. The media reports on all that NATO is doing to help the refugees, and on the West's determination to see them return to their homeland, even as they continue to march out of Kosovo into the wilderness by their thousands.
While Moscow, Belgrade and Beijing unite to try and twist NATO's arm, the US is struggling to keep the Alliance united behind a prolonged air campaign of increasingly dubious merits. During these last few days, diplomats and politicians have been criss-crossing Europe in a desperate search for some way out of the crisis. Their optimism is further dampened by the common belief that Russia cannot deliver Milosevic, and is simply acting tough so as to boost its own prestige. Yet Russia cannot be neglected, as its involvement will be essential to the success of any peace-keeping force that may be sent in when the bombing stops.
As the US and Russian envoys met in Moscow this week, a number of stumbling blocks still stood in the way of an agreement on plans for an international security force. The US is insisting that any such force must have NATO troops at its core and that NATO must play a major role in its command and control. Under-Secretary of State Thomas Pickering was nevertheless optimistic: "The US is proceeding in Kosovo on two tracks -- an intensified air campaign and an intensified diplomatic track. On the diplomatic track, Russia has moved in the direction of NATO," he told reporters, adding: "I believe it is important for us to continue to work closely with Russia to bring it along, in the process of helping to bring peace to Kosovo on the terms and on the principles that NATO has set forward."
Of course, the US holds a major trump card when it comes to cajoling Russia to come onside, for Moscow is presently hoping to obtain the resumption of suspended payments on a major IMF loan.
In the meantime, however, and until the Russians do give in, the US has no alternative but to intensify the air campaign, said administration officials. It was in this context that Defence Minister Cohen denounced what he called Serbian officials' "crocodile tears" over civilians killed by NATO raids.
The US is also trying to mend fences with Beijing. Under-Secretary Pickering said, "World Trade Organisation membership for China is one of those areas of differences that both countries should work on. That ought to be moved on."
Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the principle architect of US-China relations since World War II, explained that China is opposed to what the US is doing in Yugoslavia, not because it is on Serbia's side, but because it sees it as a precedent for outside intervention on behalf of minority populations which might in the fullness of time be used against itself.
