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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Living Features Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters The last push
By Gamal Nkrumah"Wars pass, but the human soul endures; and with it, the interest, not so much in the war, as in the human experience behind it."
I do not readily quote a Boer, but these words of Jan Smutts come to mind as I watch the plight of the ethnic Albanian refugees who have been forced out of Kosovo. Smutts, of course, was referring to the Boer War, which took place over a century ago. But his words are just as true of the Balkan war being fought today.
Hundreds of thousands of refugees continue to stream out of the war-torn province, whose inhabitants -- mainly ethnic Albanians -- had been seeking independence before the war erupted. Today, according to figures from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), one million ethnic Albanians -- more than half of Kosovo's population -- have fled their homes.
The UN Undersecretary for Humanitarian Affairs Sergio Vieira de Mello disclosed on Monday that his team had seen considerable evidence of an attempt to displace, both internally and externally, a "shocking" number of civilians. And indeed, the situation as it is relayed to us daily on our TV screens can only be described as revolting. Nor is the West's responsibility in the fate of Kosovo a particularly edifying spectacle. For NATO's aerial blitz has undoubtedly driven Milosevic's ethnic cleansing programme into overdrive.
Not only is Belgrade chasing the ethnic Albanians out of Kosovo, but it is also making sure that they never return. One UNHCR official described the latest wave of refugees as "apocalyptic" and "catastrophic". The new arrivals are clear evidence that Serbia has decided to empty Kosovo's capital Pristina of its Albanian population. "You could call it the last push," said a UNHCR spokeswoman.
The Balkan war boasts a rich cast of characters: among those who feature regularly in dispatches are Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, American President Bill Clinton, British Premier Tony Blair, Russian President Boris Yeltsin, former Russian Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin, now Russia's Kosovo envoy, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Italian Premier Massimo D'Alema, Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, the EU's Kosovo envoy -- and, of course, hordes of generals. But the real stars of the gruesome show are Kosovo's ethnic Albanians. They are the war's unsung heroes, sacrificed on the altar of Western economic and strategic interests. Not only have they lost their homes and land, they have also lost their chance to make a bid for independent nationhood.
The forcible evacuation of Kosovo is certainly the single most important effect of the war to date. The massive displacement of ethnic Albanians is a human tragedy of colossal proportions. Many former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) strongholds, such as Orahovac and Suva Reka, are now firmly in Serbian hands. Meanwhile, some 1,000 ethnic Albanian men were freed last week from Kosovo's dreaded Mitrovica prison. Hungry, exhausted and in poor health, they told reporters they had been subjected to torture and deprived of real food, surviving only on stale bread and filthy water.
It will not be an easy task to persuade the one million ethnic Albanians who have fled the province to return. The Albanian authorities have asked the refugees to move away from areas close to the Kosovo borders, and plans are already underway to resettle the refugees in camps deep inside Albanian territory. Moreover, the UN and the aid agencies want to stop the KLA from recruiting in the camps. This deliberate sidelining of the partisan army is itself a partisan act, and constitutes a dangerous precedent. Nor are the refugees permitted to organise politically. It now seems unlikely they could be forcibly repatriated to Kosovo; in the eyes of many, they have only just been "repatriated" to Albania, where three-quarters of a million of them now reside. Most of the rest have either reached Western safe havens, or are patiently awaiting resettlement in the West.
Differences between NATO members over strategy continue to dog attempts to impose a united front. Recently, British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said that NATO might have to intervene with ground troops in Kosovo, even if this move met with Serb resistance. Clinton, too, conceded that ground troops might have to be stationed in the province in order to bring the crisis to a close. But German Defence Minister Rudolf Scharping took a different line on Monday, telling the press, "There's a crucial point [approaching] in the timetable. The G8 summit in Cologne will give us a chance to find a common solution with Russia. Then, we must be able to implement any kind of political settlement." Scharping, who was in Macedonia visiting German troops and meeting with Balkan political leaders, is reluctant to send German troops into Kosovo to do battle with the 40,000 Serb troops still stationed there. His remarks upped the ante once again, as the Germans, French and Italians begin openly to criticise the Anglo-Saxon powers.
Meanwhile, fears that the Balkan crisis might spread to the Adriatic are gathering strength, particularly in the countries on the periphery of the war zone. Macedonia, which has so far received over 70,000 refugees, is now only admitting ethnic Albanians if they sign written agreements that they will only stay in the country for a short period prior to resettlement in Albania. Ethnic Albanians already number 750,000, making up 23 per cent of Macedonia's total population of 2.2 million. Meanwhile, anti-Milosevic, pro-Western Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, visited London this week, where he met not only Blair and Cook, but also British Defence Secretary George Robertson.
Washington, for its part, claims that Belgrade is reinforcing its troops in Kosovo and that fresh troops have been positioned near the border with Albania. Clinton is using this argument to press for the deployment of some 50,000 troops under Alliance command along Kosovo's external borders.
This week, the Yugoslav media claimed that the Serbian army had begun to inflict some damage on the Allies, shooting down an A10 Thunderbolt. Meanwhile, triumphant headlines in the Anglo-Saxon press were claiming a victory of sorts for the NATO forces -- albeit an inconclusive one. Yet perhaps the most ominous sign is that the Serbs still refuse to be brow-beaten. Thus, those American and British generals who first claimed that the air strikes were necessary, now say that ground troops will be essential if the war is to be decisively won.
There are those who believe that the Serbs will eventually give in and lay down their arms. "If you are getting pounded by B-11s and B-2s, and have A-10s chasing you every day, and if you know that every time you move you are liable to get hit, at some point your spirit will break," Lt. Gen. Michael Short philosophised earlier this week.
However, even Lt. Gen. Short -- commander of the allied air forces in southern Europe -- conceded that he cannot tell when the Serbian spirit will actually collapse. "I don't have a good feel for knowing how close they are to breaking, but I'll tell you that if we do this for two more months, we will kill this army in Kosovo or send it on the run," he added. Yet despite all NATO's bluster, "killing" the Serbian army still looks easier said than done.
What the NATO blitz has actually achieved is to kill the cause of Kosovo and extinguish any final hope that the province's right to national self-determination might one day be won. It is highly unlikely now that Kosovo's ethnic Albanians will return to their homes soon, if at all. And in any case, it is not even clear what would they be returning to. Few world leaders are as naive, or as sanctimonious, as Clinton and Blair, to believe that the refugees can be easily lured back to their ruined homeland -- especially those who have been conveniently resettled in Western countries.
Since the strikes began, Clinton and Blair have played right into Milosevic's hands. Whether they did so inadvertently or not is a moot point. Yet whatever their intentions, the one undeniable fact is that Milosevic's strategy -- his final solution -- is now a fait accompli.
