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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Living Features Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Time will tell
By Salama Ahmed Salama
Arab reactions to the changes on the Israeli political scene have varied from joy at Netanyahu's overthrow to a flurry of expectations that the way to peace is now open, based on the belief that the Israeli Labour Party under Barak will surely have learned from Netanyahu's mistakes.
The Arabs, however, cannot congratulate themselves on Netanyahu's defeat just yet. That he predicted the results of the elections early enough and resigned from the leadership of the Likud does not mean that he has disappeared from the Israeli political scene, nor that his school of thought has lost its popularity in Israel.
Shifts in the Israeli right have never ceased; in fact, the right wing's multifaceted nature is what enables it to make so many strong come-backs in a society prone by its very nature to the production of new strains of political and religious extremism. Suffice it to note the increase in Shas members, the hard-line religious party which today boasts the third largest block in the Knesset, and is one of Netanyahu's major allies.
The Likud did not lose the elections because of its failure to take the peace process forward, the proof being that Labour under Barak has also lost a considerable number of Knesset seats. The Likud lost because of Israeli voters' exasperation with the sharp divisions within Israeli society, which Netanyahu fuelled to maintain himself in power, and as a convenient pretext to ignore Oslo and Wye.
It is also safe to say that Netanyahu has not yet taken his final bow. There is a very good possibility that Barak will keep Sharon as foreign minister in order to ensure Likud cooperation and guarantee a wider support base for his coalition government.
While Sharon supported the Wye Memorandum, he did his best, following Netanyahu's example, to sabotage it. He opposed freezing the construction of new settlements, and staunchly implemented policies that led to the collapse of the peace process. The question, however, is how Sharon will back a policy diametrically opposed to the one he was implementing only a few weeks ago.
Barak's statements in the wake of his electoral victory could suggest that he will adopt a less bellicose stance than his predecessors. While he is allegedly determined to pull out of Lebanon and to end the occupation of the Golan Heights, however, he has also made worrying statements regarding Jerusalem, the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, refugees and borders -- in other words all the issues to be discussed in the final-status negotiations.
The new coalition government faces a daunting task: that of overcoming Israel's internal divisions, and of reconciling a wide array of forces and parties. Barak himself has admitted that the diversity of his government may accord him the support he needs in the Knesset, but will render agreement with the Arabs even more difficult.
The real test will begin when Barak's cabinet is established. Will it implement Oslo? In time, Barak may prove to be no better than Netanyahu.
