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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 27 May - 2 June 1999 Issue No. 431
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Living Features Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Offices for Washington's Iraqi friends
Leaders of several dissident groups travelled to Washington this week for a series of discussions with senior administration officials and Congressmen to discuss ways of ousting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein with US help.The leaders of the newly revived Iraqi National Congress clearly enjoyed their celebrity status and being the focus of American media attention. For them it was the culmination of decades of endeavour to get rid of Hussein. However the welcome these opponents of Saddam received in Washington says one thing while their achievements to date say another. One can hardly say that they are any nearer their goals of toppling the dictator.
Following a meeting with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Monday, State Department Spokesman James Rubin said that the Clinton administration will help Iraqi opposition leaders organise themselves but won't provide them with military hardware. Washington's help will take the form of offices in New York and London and possibly a satellite office in the Middle East.
Rubin said the groups would also get computers, training in civil administration and advice on distributing anti-Saddam information.
The opposition groups were not ready for military help according to Rubin. "We are not prepared to take action that is premature or that puts people's lives needlessly at risk," he said. "There are a number of steps that have to be taken before we're in a position to provide weapons assistance."
The visit by the Iraqi opposition groups to Washington was arranged following several meetings held by the same figures in Windsor in April when they unexpectedly agreed to set up a new leadership structure that would organise and execute a US-backed plan to topple Hussein. The plan is based on the Iraq Liberation Act passed by Congress in October last which says the administration will help arm and train Iraqi dissidents who will eventually invade Iraq and topple Hussein. Similar plans by the US in the past have come to nothing and this has adversely affected Iraqi dissident morale. The lack of success has also raised serious doubts about Washington's intentions and its preparedness to help them in their effort to achieve the declared goal of building a free and democratic Iraq after Hussein's downfall.
Even before the Windsor meetings the main Iraqi opposition groups differed on their objectives and proposed strategy for ousting Hussein. Some of these groups, especially the leftists and pan-Arab factions, have rejected the American plan outright, saying it will only portray them as American stooges. The main Shi'ite group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, has been reluctant to support the American plans insisting that changes should come from within Iraq through a joint uprising by the army and the people.
The two main Kurdish groups whose participation in any plan to overthrow Hussein could hardly be ignored have refused to make their territories a springboard for an anti-Hussein campaign. They prefer to hold and even tighten their grip on the northern enclave which has been under their control since the end of the 1991 Gulf War.
Kurdish leaders have expressed dismay at the American plan which they say would allow a bunch of adventurous dissidents in exile to determine the future of nearly four million Kurds who have already suffered tremendously under Hussein's rule. Their conditions for cooperation are full American military and security protection and guarantees from an incoming regime that there would be a federated Kurdish entity in northern Iraq that would enjoy broad autonomy.
This leaves only one small group of ambitious exiled dissidents who seem ready to take American promises at face value. Their journey to Washington this week is meant to prove that the Clinton administration is ready at last to match action with rhetoric. But what exactly are the Americans trying to achieve with this meeting?
American officials involved in the preparations for the visit have been quoted as saying that the discussions the dissidents will have in Washington, including those with Albright and National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, will focus on "efforts to work out an agenda for a post Saddam era". They said "there are high expectations for a change in Iraq soon" which require concerted effort by the opposition groups to capitalise on any developments. These are vaguely worded statements which can hardly be considered a working strategy for getting rid of the Iraqi leader.
So, do the Americans have a hidden agenda for Iraq or are they merely using Hussein's opponents as camouflage? Under the Iraq Liberation Act, the administration should start spending some $97 million to arm and train the opposition groups who will supposedly launch an armed rebellion against Hussein's regime. It would seem that the administration is not willing to go along with Congress plans despite the announcement that the first installments of American aid will be dispersed to the opposition groups in July.
One reason for that assessment is the strong opposition expressed by Gen. Anthony Zinni, the chief of the US Central Command in the Gulf, against any US-led attack on Iraq aimed at removing Saddam. He has described such schemes as dubious and warned that Iraq might explode and end up like Afghanistan or Somalia. Besides, the administration does not see eye to eye with the Congress on how to deal with the Iraqi leader. While the Republican dominated Congress prefers a quick surgical strike to take Hussein out, the administration seems not to be in a hurry.
Another reason for delay is that Iraq's neighbours which are required to provide logistical support and bases for an anti-Hussein operation have been reluctant to do so. Indeed, many of them have dismissed such talk as futile and the Iraqi dissidents as worthless dreamers who sit around hatching plots in foreign capitals.
But it is not just these factors that have prevented credible American action against Saddam. American officials admit that their statements on Iraq have been less than clear and the administration has never avowedly declared that it wants to remove Saddam by force. Some of the Iraqi opposition leaders who met with these officials say that they were told that the administration is only expecting them to play a role in the propaganda war against Hussein and to incite Iraqis against his regime.
In other words the real job of getting rid of Hussein, if that is Washington's intention, will apparently be executed by some other plotters and not those dissidents who went to Washington this week.
If that is the case, the question remains where will Saddam's opponents turn to next time?
