 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 June 1999 Issue No. 432 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 June 1999 Issue No. 432
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Interview Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters A united Arab front?
Dina EzzatIt seems that it is time once again for the re-appearance of inter-Arab disagreements over the management of the Middle East peace process. Egypt, therefore, is going to have a very busy time, attempting to "harmonise" the "separate" plans of the Arab countries involved in the stalled peace negotiations with Israel.
"The fact of the matter is that during the times of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, there was an overall feeling that he was not going to do anything serious on any of the three tracks of negotiations; the Arabs, therefore, stuck together. Now, Ehud Barak is sending messages that he is willing to do business; but the concerned Arab parties cannot yet agree on the formula to be adopted in dealing with Barak; some want to be tougher than the others," said one informed source.
The obvious problem here is the traditional disagreement between Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.
It is no secret that Arafat has asked Egypt to mediate between Gaza and Damascus. Cairo has been trying; but this has not proved to be an easy task, since the government in Damascus keeps expressing apprehensions that the Palestinians tend to be far too mild. This, the Syrians argue, encourages Israel to expect similar concessions from Damascus.
Over the past week, Cairo has been pondering the wisdom of going ahead with the hosting of a five-way summit, to be chaired by President Hosni Mubarak and attended by Assad, Arafat, King Abdullah of Jordan and Lebanese President Emil Lahoud.
In Damascus last Saturday to listen to what the Syrians had to say on this idea -- initially floated by the Palestinians -- and the future of the peace process, Foreign Minister Amr Moussa did not find much enthusiasm for close coordination with the Palestinians.
"It is not a matter of whether or not this five-way summit will be held, or when it will be held. What is really at stake is whether or not the parties who will be involved in negotiations with Ehud Barak are prepared to sit together and properly coordinate. There is a big question mark here. The differences and grudges are simply too many," one official told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Asked if the problems dividing the Palestinians and Syrians run too deep to allow for a meeting bringing together Assad and Arafat, Moussa answered: "It is not that the Palestinians and Syrians are not on speaking terms; it is simply that each has a separate track."
Attempting to play down the inter-Arab differences, Moussa added that "talking about a comprehensive peace settlement is, by definition, talking about all the tracks -- the Palestinian, the Syrian and the Lebanese. But it should be noted that negotiations will have to be conducted separately on each track."
Cairo is well aware that Barak may simply be willing to play for time, implement a little bit of the Wye Plantation agreement, start open-ended negotiations with the Syrians and "actually achieve very little."
"Some people argue that any new [Israeli] government and new [Israeli] prime minister would be better than the outgoing [Israeli government and prime minister]. I think there is a big question mark here," said Moussa. The foreign minister argued that, within a year's time, the Arab side will know for a fact if Barak is ready to work in good faith to realise a comprehensive settlement or will try to do what Netanyahu had tried to do, albeit at a slower pace and maybe in more subtle ways.
Diplomatic sources tell the Weekly that there is a serious concern that Barak will try to get the US to convince the Palestinians not to make too much of a fuss over the implementation of the Wye Memorandum and move ahead with the final status talks. And some negotiators argue that, when it comes to the final status talks, there will be little difference between Barak and Netanyahu. Netanyahu was not willing to give the Palestinians more than 50 per cent of the West Bank, while Barak could go up to 70 per cent, and may be willing to give bits and pieces with regards to a safe passage between Gaza and the West Bank.
The Palestinians might be happy with this. The Jordanians, who want to please the US in the hope of foreign debt relief, will be encouraging the Palestinians to go ahead. The Syrians will feel forced to lower their expectations in order to avoid being left out. The Lebanese will feel cornered because they cannot seek a deal with Israel separate from Syria.
This is where Egypt needs to step in. President Mubarak, Moussa said, will be meeting with his Syrian counterpart this month, probably before a presidential trip to the US capital scheduled for the last week of June. Mubarak has conferred this week with Jordan's King Abdullah and is keeping in constant touch with Arafat.
In the meantime, Egypt will be talking with the Saudis to coordinate the next Arab move.
There is also a possible exchange of visits by Egyptian and Israeli officials.
"We are going to have much work to do this summer," said one Egyptian diplomat.
