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Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 June 1999 Issue No. 432 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 3 - 9 June 1999 Issue No. 432
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Interview Travel Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Bolstering Syrian-Russian ties
By Galal NassarFor some time now Arab countries have been hoping that Russia would replace the former Soviet Union as a major player in the Middle East. In the power vacuum created by the disintegration of the USSR the United States has been able to act without restraint and follow policies in the Middle East that serve its own foreign and strategic aims. Syria has felt this more than any other Arab nation. During the Soviet era it depended heavily on Russian arms and enjoyed Soviet political and diplomatic support in Middle East negotiations.
Syria has not dropped its old ally. Attention in Syrian diplomatic and military circles is currently focused on the impending visit of President Hafez Al-Assad to Moscow. Several previous planned visit have been cancelled for one reason or another. One planned for September 1998 was put off, supposedly, because of the political and economic crisis in Russia and the changes being made in the Russian government when President Boris Yeltsin was hospitalised for treatment. A second visit on 12 April was cancelled 24 hours before it was due to happen. The reason given by Damascus was that the Syrian president's visit to Moscow would coincide with a visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon.
According to informed diplomatic sources in Cairo and Damascus, who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, the real reason was that Damascus got wind of a plan by the Likud government to resume peace talks with Syria. Sharon's visit to Moscow was intended as a ploy to use Moscow's influence with the Syrians. Damascus interpreted this as a political manoeuvre by Likud to strengthen its position in the Israeli elections and declined to play ball. Damascus said the visit had not been cancelled but merely postponed and the Russians displayed a full understanding of the reasons behind the postponements and agreed in principle that another date would be agreed upon.
The explanation for this sudden keenness by Russia and Syria to strengthen their bilateral ties is the realisation that military and strategic cooperation will benefit both countries. The new Israeli-Turkish alliance has underlined Damascus's need for closer ties with Russia, particularly because Syria feels trapped, geographically and strategically, between the two US-friendly allies. Syria regards Russia as a welcome partner in a counter alliance to preserve the balance of power in the region.
Syria's other long-time ally in the region is Iran which has historic ties with the old USSR. To Damascus, an alliance of Syria, Iran and Russia would serve more than one purpose. It would act as a useful counter weight to Israeli and Turkish designs in the region and would give Russia the opportunity to refurbish its world power image by playing a more effective political and strategic role in the region.
On the other hand, the eastward expansion of NATO and the current Balkan conflict have impacted negatively on Russia's self image. Reinvigorating its ties with Syria could offer Moscow a chance to reestablish its position as a major player in the Middle East.
Of mutual importance to the Syrians and Russians is the re-equipping of the Syrian armed forces whose armament capability has declined dramatically since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Syria's attempts to rectify this situation has been confined to purchasing limited quantities of ammunition and spare parts as well as making small deals with countries like Slovakia and Belarus for tanks and some secondary equipment.
Syria has concentrated on developing its own ballistic missile capability with help from North Korea and Iran which has meant the development and manufacture of these missiles and their warheads locally. Arms purchases will therefore be given top priority in the Assad talks in Moscow.
In spite of its shortcomings Syria has a formidable military arsenal : 400,000 soldiers, 4,600 tanks, 600 warplanes, thousands of armoured vehicles, artillery pieces, tactical missiles, and hundreds of ground-to-ground ballistic missiles. Most of this is old Soviet equipment dating back to the 1960s and 1970s and sorely lacking in maintenance and spare parts.
As recently as 1995 Moscow and Damascus agreed on a "comprehensive programme" to update the Syrian forces at a cost of $2 billion. But the plan has been hampered by the question of Syria's outstanding military debts to the former Soviet Union which Russia estimates as $12-14 billion. The Syrians regard this figure as grossly exaggerated given that most of the weaponry was bought in the 1970s and 1980s at much reduced prices as part of a special agreement between the two allies.
Syrian sources have told the Weekly that as a result of Iranian mediation the outstanding sum has been agreed on as $2 billion. Tehran has reportedly agreed to guarantee payment of any new arms agreements expected to be signed by Assad during his Moscow visit and Saudi Arabia will also provide financial backing for other military purchases to be agreed by Syria and Russia.
Statements made recently by the Russian defense minister during a visit to Damascus signal Russian readiness "to supply Syria with all its defence needs".
According to the Weekly's own sources Assad's "shopping list" will include 24 Sukhoi-27 fighter planes which are regarded as the equal of the American F-15 Eagle the plane used by the Israeli Air Force. Syria is hoping to purchase S-300 and SAM-10 air defence missile batteries which are Russia's answer to the American Patriot missiles as well as 200 to 300 advanced T-80 tanks and AT-8 anti-tank missiles. In addition Moscow will help Syria upgrade its 48 Mig-29 fighters (Syria's most advanced warplane), Mig-32, Mig-21 and Sukhoi-22 fighters as well as itsT-72 tanks and the various Soviet anti-aircraft missiles currently in use. Syrian defence sources estimate the new deals will cost $3 billion.
