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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Living Travel Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Indonesia in transition
By Emad ErianThere is nothing "natural" about Indonesia. It was Sukarno, the charismatic hero of Indonesian independence and the architect of the non-aligned movement, who forged the political unity of his country. It was Sukarno who initiated the archipelago-nation's rapid economic growth. And it was Sukarno who annexed East Timor.
It was Sukarno, too, who organised the country's last democratic elections, back in 1955. The hero of independence was toppled by a coup d'état some 10 years later. His successor, Suharto, was appointed president for life. With Suharto's accession to power, Indonesia's autocratic fate was sealed.
Today, it is Sukarno's daughter, Megawati Sukarnoputri, who is leading the call for democratisation. Suharto gave Indonesia a multi-party legislative assembly, but permitted only three political parties to be genuinely active on the ground: the ruling Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP) (an Islamic umbrella party) and the left-leaning Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). Despite the facade, Suharto was always in full control.
The new government that will emerge from the parliamentary elections will inherit a problematic legacy, as will the new president, who will be elected by the 700-member People's Consultative Assembly next November. Whether the current incumbent Habibie, who has been nominated by the Golkar Party, is reelected, or Sukarnoputri takes his place, the huge problems bequeathed by the Asian financial crisis of 1997 will have to be addressed.
Indonesia's annual GDP growth rate dropped from a high of 7-9 per cent to minus 18 per cent last year. Nearly 30 million citizens have lost their jobs since the economy collapsed. Capital outflows are estimated at $24 billion and annual per capita income has fallen from $2000 to $400.
There are, it is true, some signs of recovery. Growth rates are expected to reach one per cent this year. The immediate impact of the elections has also been positive, as witness the growing interest of Japanese investors and companies in starting operations as soon as political stability is established.
With 220 million inhabitants, Indonesia can boast a vast array of ethnic and religious groups. Ninety per cent of the population are Muslim, six per cent Christian and the rest are Hindu, Buddhist, and animists. There are 500 ethnic groups and an equal number of languages and dialects. This mosaic of cultures and religions is reflected, albeit on a smaller scale, in the 48 political parties which participated in last week's elections.
The Indonesian voter is keen to see a democratic regime based on political pluralism replace the current totalitarian system. The general desire to dislodge the reigning Golkar Party was evident in the election results. The opposition parties collectively took over 70 per cent of the votes, and Sukarnoputri now seems to have a good chance of winning the presidential elections in November. Her party won 35 per cent of the votes, while her coalition partner, the National Awakening Party led by Abderrahman Wahid, polled about 20 per cent and could well bring with them an additional five per cent from other parties.
The position of Amin Rais and his National Mandate Party remains ambiguous. Sometimes he seems to be seeking a rapprochement with the other Islamic parties, sometimes he seems to be paying court to the secular parties. This ambivalence may be the reason for his poor showing last week, when his party scored only five to seven per cent.
Diplomatic sources in Jakarta feel that Sukarnoputri may also succeed in the unlikely task of winning the army over, if she appoints General Wiranto as her deputy. This would guarantee her the votes of the military and ensure her of their support both in parliament and outside it.
The other important feature of the elections was the broad support received by those parties which are calling for the maintenance of the secular and nationalist state, and the preservation of ethnic and religious harmony.
Yet although none of the parties contesting the elections was actually calling for the establishment of a theocratic or ethnically-pure state, there has been much talk about the potential "Balkanisation of Indonesia", stoking fears that the country could turn into the "the sick man of Asia". Such statements are themselves highly dangerous, and could well encourage the emergence of separatist movements across the vast Indonesian archipelago.
The agreement between Indonesia and the United Nations to grant East Timor the right to self-determination -- that is, the choice between autonomy and independence, to be decided in a referendum scheduled for next August -- could well in itself be enough to set off a domino effect.
Some analysts believe that this concession to Timorese separatism may encourage the outlying regions of Aceh, Irian Jaya and Riao to pursue their own separatist agendas, with the aim of achieving complete independence from Indonesia. The ousting of Suharto has given those who favour local autonomy an opportunity to put pressure on Jakarta. The government has already decided to pump 25 per cent of state revenues to the provinces, in order to appease the rebellious locals.
Ethnic and religious conflict is also evident in Ambon, Kalimantan and Maluku. What will come of the recent acceleration of these centrifugal forces is far from clear. Sukarnoputri herself has rejected the separatist demands, but has indicated she is ready to grant the provinces more autonomy. General Wiranto has also declared the army's opposition to separatist demands. Other party leaders, however, have said they are ready to grant the provinces some form of self-rule, provided they remain within Indonesia.
Either way, whoever becomes the nation's next leader will need all the charisma -- and the intelligence -- of a Sukarno to succeed.
