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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Living Travel Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Democratisation with a martial harness
By Faiza Rady
Following weeks of intense campaigning for Indonesia's first free elections since 1955, none of the major parties contending for parliamentary seats managed to obtain a clear majority last Monday.
A grand total of 48 parties vied for 462 seats in the 500-member parliament, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). "After more than three decades of strongman rule -- in which elections were rigged affairs marked by ballot stuffing, payoffs and intimidation -- Indonesians see this vote as a precious opportunity for their country," commented The New York Times.
Reform of the electoral process forced itself on the political establishment as a necessity in the wake of the wave of demonstrations which rocked the country last May and swept reigning President Suharto from power. At the time, The Jakarta Post quoted prominent Indonesian tycoon Siswono as warning the ruling elite that "reform is a must, because delay could spark demands for drastic change that could turn into a revolution. We must immediately proceed to reform from above, to prevent revolution from below."
The electoral reforms which duly followed seemed to conform to this view, maintaining as they did many of the authoritarian features of the Suharto dictatorship.
One relic of the totalitarian Suharto era are the 38 seats in the MPR's 500-seat upper house that are allotted to non-elected members of Indonesia's powerful military, instead of the 75 they were formerly guaranteed. In addition, a further 200 seats in the lower house are reserved for the non-elected --135 representatives from the provinces and another 65 chosen from different socio-political groups. Of these 200 seats, 10 per cent are reserved for the military.
As well as downsizing the brass in parliament, the reforms also removed military officers from key regional political posts. According to recently issued regulations, military personnel are to be given the option of switching from political to civilian posts, or face compulsory retirement. "Currently almost half of all provincial governors and 40 per cent of district heads are serving officers," reported the BBC.
Yet although the armed forces' representation has thus been somewhat curtailed by the electoral reform package, top officers will still wield formidable power in the assembly. Despite the reforms, the military still potentially constitute the fifth or sixth largest faction in the MPR, according to Inside Indonesia.
Some analysts believe that this somewhat revamped electoral process signifies progress and a greater measure of democracy. Others, however, have been quick to find fault with the new system and point out that President Habibie's electoral reforms serve essentially to maintain the status quo. The percentage of designated MPs has only been reduced from 60 to 34 per cent. "These steps do not in any way satisfy all demands. The system allows the old leadership to remain in place, whereas political representation could have been changed from the bottom up," noted Le Monde Diplomatique.
As things stand, the old leadership will probably be kept in place through a coalition between the officers and Suharto's ruling party. Golkar, which was trailing at some distance behind Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDIP), only gained 20.48 per cent of the vote compared to the PDIP's 36.25 per cent, according to provisional unofficial results available as this paper went to press. Yet Golkar Chairman Akbar Tanjung, seemingly banking on the military's support, was confident that his party would retain a powerful role in the MPR despite the low returns. "I am quite happy with the result," Tanjung told reporters as he conceded defeat to the PDIP.
While the military kept a low profile and officially pledged neutrality, many observers believe that the traditional alliance between the army and Golkar will necessarily reemerge after the elections. "The army remains a major political force, since its 'dual function' [in defence and politics] is still in place," explained Le Monde Diplomatique.
As the count proceeds, albeit at an extremely slow pace -- official results are not expected to be announced before 8 July -- it still remains unclear whether Megawati's PDIP or Golkar will be in the strongest position to form the new government. Although the PDIP is currently leading at the polls, Indonesia's complex system of proportional representation does not necessarily guarantee the largest number of parliamentary seats to the winning party.
However, regardless of who heads the new government -- which will necessarily involve an alliance with one of the more powerful Islamic parties such as the National Mandate Party (PAN), or the National Awakening Party -- the fate of the Indonesian people is unlikely to improve in the near -- or even distant -- future.
Since the disastrous stock market crashes and the ensuing financial crisis that struck the region in 1997, the Indonesian economy has lapsed into a state of virtual insolvency. The country's GDP contracted 14 per cent in 1998, while the stock exchange lost most of its value. The banking system is in shambles: 38 banks have closed down, nine banks have had to be recapitalised by the government and seven banks were nationalised in order to keep them afloat.
Unemployment has soared to unprecedented levels. According to official figures, 10 million workers have lost their jobs in the wake of the crisis and 40 per cent of Indonesians currently fall below the poverty level, as compared with 11 per cent in 1997. "Throughout Java, the incidence of diseases associated with low incomes and poor living conditions -- such as diarrhoea, typhoid, gastritis and tuberculosis -- has increased since 1997," reported the BBC.
However, whether Golkar or the PDIP ultimately wins the day, the new government's economic course will remain hostage to the dictates of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are unlikely to vary from their established norm.
Using their strategy of pumping more money into the economy to keep the system afloat, the international lending institutions will refinance the debt at a tremendous cost -- and one which will ultimately be borne by the Indonesian people. The cost of restructuring the banking sector alone is estimated at a staggering $35 billion. "Foreign capital will not return, until stability returns under some new regime, at the cost of the workers and peasants. This means that the Indonesian people will face a prolonged period of terrible economic hardship, unemployment and poverty," explained political analyst Alan Woods.
Expressing their confidence in the country's stability, whether under Megawati or under a reformed and hence more politically potable Golkar, the IMF have already signaled their approval of the early election results. The stock market in turn responded to the sense of impending stability by leaping 12.2 per cent last Tuesday. In the words of Ron Leven, foreign exchange strategist at J.P. Morgan, "the market is getting a little euphoric in the absence of political risk."
