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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 17 - 23 June 1999 Issue No. 434
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Living Travel Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Front runner blues
By James Zogby *
This week the year 2000 US presidential race is accelerating dramatically, as both the Democratic and Republican front runners push their campaigns into high gear.
Republican George W. Bush, governor of Texas, makes his long-awaited first campaign trips to both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Democratic Vice-President Al Gore formally launches his campaign with visits to Tennessee, New Hampshire, New York and Iowa.
Of the two, Bush's outing is the one that is drawing the most media attention. In some ways the Texas governor remains an enigma. He is untested as a candidate, and virtually unknown as a political leader: a recent poll showed that almost one-half of Texans couldn't name a single thing he had achieved as governor. Yet despite all of this, Bush remains the choice of over 50 per cent of all Republicans and the candidate favored by the party's establishment. The juggernaut that is driving him appears to be unstoppable. Even before he begins his formal campaign, Bush has received the endorsement of more than one-half of the Republican members of Congress, together with more than one-half of Republican governors and the majority of state senators and representatives across the United States.
Bush is also leading in money raised. In fact, his fund-raising efforts have been so successful that other Republican contenders are reportedly having difficulty finding any of the money they need to fuel their own campaigns. Lamar Alexander, for example, who was once considered a serious candidate, announced last week that he was cutting back his staff and limiting his early campaign to the state of Iowa. The reason for this move was that hundreds of Alexander's 1996 campaign contributors have since switched to the Bush camp.
As a result, there is now such an aura of invincibility -- even inevitability -- surrounding the Bush campaign that some of his Republican challengers have begun complaining of their rival's "coronation" by the establishment.
As the undisputed front runner, Bush can expect to be attacked early and vigorously by both Democrats and his Republican competitors. The national media will also be keeping a close eye on him. Democrats have already begun to focus their attacks on Bush, citing what they call his "flip-flops" over Kosovo (at first he was ambivalent, then later supported sending ground troops) and the "no-tax" pledge (first he declined to sign it, then the next day he put his name to a modified version of the document).
Having established such a substantial lead, Bush's fellow Republican candidates will also be targeting him. Gary Bauer and Pat Buchanan have already attacked him for supporting China's entry into the World Trade Organisation and for his less-than-strident line on abortion. Dan Quayle, Steve Forbes, Elizabeth Dole and Lamar Alexander have all made it clear that Bush will not get a free ride to the nomination out of them. Their hope, as Forbes recently said, is that the Republican contest may ultimately see a successful challenge to the party establishment from "outsiders". They also argue that since Bush has actually articulated his position on only a small number of issues, the establishment is supporting him solely on the basis of his lead in the polls. But this, they claim in turn, simply reflects his name recognition, since most voters still know very little about the Texas governor.
In an effort to stop the Bush train, the social conservative wing of the Republican Party has even issued a pamphlet entitled, "Reasons not to support George Bush", which they have distributed to their activists and supporters across the United States.
But while these challenges will be substantial, the biggest threat to Bush's nomination is likely to come from the national media. With over 200 journalists following his first steps, he can be certain that his every move will be scrutinised intensely. As a result, the least slip is liable to be magnified into a hugely damaging error. For this reason, Bush's first outing has been tightly organised by his advisers, who are restricting press access and controlling Bush's movements in order to avoid any mistakes. While this strategy may work, in that it may succeed in protecting the candidate from negative coverage, it also will inhibit him in his attempt to reach out and establish a personal rapport with voters -- something that his opponents have already spent months working to achieve.
Bush can also be certain that now that he is "out of the box", the media and his opponents will begin to pry into all the controversial aspects of his past personal life. Rumours have long circulated about his "wild youth", and also about his business dealings. While the relevance of these charges may be open to debate, what is crucial is how Bush will respond to the charges, once they are made, and how Republican voters will take his reactions. As Clinton demonstrated in the 1992 election, the ultimate test of a candidate is how he stands up to the onslaught of the media.
The next few months will be of crucial importance for the Bush campaign. If he can get through them without making any major faux pas and maintain his present substantial lead, then he may well carry off the Republican nomination. But, should he falter, his lead could evaporate overnight. Then the Republican race would be a real contest.
In part because of the media hype surrounding the Bush campaign, and also because of criticism that his own campaign was lagging, Al Gore decided to move his announcement from September to mid-June. Gore has long been plagued with the perceptions that he is "boring", "wooden" and "uninspiring". While he is the favoured candidate of the Democratic Party establishment, the media have been singularly unimpressed by his personality and his lack-lustre performance as a campaigner, focusing on the fears of certain Democrats that Gore, who is currently lagging behind Bush in national polls, might well fail to win in 2000.
Even President Clinton became a part of Gore's problem this week when a national newspaper quoted the president at length as he expressed his concerns about the "sluggishness" of his second-in-command's campaign. Compounding Gore's worries, the press also began to pay a deal more attention to his lone Democrat opponent, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. For a few weeks there was even what might have been termed a "media frenzy" around the Bradley campaign. The hype, however, was largely undeserved. Bradley has done little so far to merit it, and has actually yet to take a position on any major issues. Yet his fledgling campaign suddenly found itself in the media spotlight, simply because of the fact that he was "not Al Gore".
In an effort to react to this situation, Gore announced a high-power appointment to head his national campaign. Tony Coehlo, a former Democratic congressional leader, is expected to give focus and direction to the Gore camp. At the same time, Gore has stepped up his schedule, with major launching events this week that will take him across the breadth of the country.
The real test for Gore, however, will be whether or not he can sustain the momentum he seems likely to develop once this "power" week is over and thus finally shake off his "wooden" image -- or even use it to his benefit.
Both Bush and Gore are suffering from what are known as "front runner blues" -- the fate of the early leaders in such races, as they face increasingly intense scrutiny and have to live up to ever higher expectations. With over eight months to go before the first votes will be cast in the 2000 primaries, both candidates will need to find a way to maintain their leads -- and their energy levels -- if they are to emerge victorious from the grueling schedules and bitter battles that still lie ahead.
* The writer is president of the Washington-based Arab American Institute.
