 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 24 - 30 June 1999 Issue No. 435 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 24 - 30 June 1999 Issue No. 435
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
| ||
Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Interview Travel Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Twinkle twinkle little star
By Dominic ColdwellLike a prophet of old, the outgoing president of the European Parliament (EP) turned to the skies for an explanation. "When you look at the stars," said José María Gil-Robles, "what you're really seeing is what they looked like millions of years ago." The Spaniard was not simply dabbling in astronomy, but predicting that Europe's voters were light-years away from discerning and appreciating recent moves towards more democratic transparency in the European Union.
Last March, the EP had successfully forced the resignation of the European Commission amid widespread charges of corruption and nepotism. In May, the Amsterdam Treaty doubled the number of policy areas requiring parliamentary approval, giving the Assembly a right of veto over 80 per cent of EU legislation, including such vital areas as consumer protection and employment. But last week's elections to the EP confirmed Gil-Robles' dire forecast. "Eurothusiasm" was at such a low ebb that participation dipped below a sobering 50 per cent. The low turn-out generally favoured Europe's opposition parties, who mobilised more voters, returning a first-ever conservative majority to the Assembly.
If the real loser of the polls is the EU itself, the problem is largely home-grown. Though the EP unveiled some ugly string-pulling in the Commission, most voters believe that MEPs are also bent on feathering their nests. Absenteeism on parliamentary motions has, for instance, become so frequent that MEPs receive a $250 "attendance allowance" to show up for critical ballots. The $130 million spent every year on the monthly migration of deputies between Brussels and Strasbourg also explains why many Europeans harbour deep reservations about EU spending. What is more, the EP remains in many ways a paper tiger, unable to initiate any legislation of its own, or to do anything to lower Europe's stellar unemployment figures.
Far more troubling, however, is the poor performance of Europe's new single currency, which has raised fears of monetary instability. The euro's continuing slide against the US dollar results largely from a divergence between the German and French economies. Growing discrepancies are likely to complicate economic planning by the European Central Bank, which is already hamstrung by the need to balance interest rates within the single currency area between the fast-growing economies on Europe's periphery -- notably Portugal, Ireland and Greece -- and those at the more stagnant core. When Italy's new finance minister, Guiliano Amato, received permission in May to let his budget deficit inch up slightly, the move only nurtured fears that political fudging could strain the so-called "Stability and Growth Pact", a measure of finance control adopted to safeguard the euro's stability. Though Amato stayed below the pact's stipulated three per cent ceiling on public spending, his move hinted at future pressures should Europe's unemployment continue to balloon. The euro's failure, in turn, could call the desirability of political integration into question.
But political union is precisely what men like British opposition leader William Hague are out to prevent. Riding high on a crest of Euroscepticism, the Tory leader capitalised on fears that British Prime Minister Tony Blair might steer the country into monetary wedlock with the Continent. With British voter participation down to a meagre 23 per cent, the election turned into a referendum on Europe itself, with opinion polls revealing that Blair would still bag a comfortable 50 per cent majority in the event of British parliamentary elections.
While the British vote signals a clear rejection of a supra-national European agenda, Germany, like most other countries, dealt the idea of integration no less heavy a blow by turning the poll into a barometer of national politics, which displayed the gross irrelevance of European issues in a domestic context. Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats thus had to stomach massive gains by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), owing to a failure to make any impact on the country's high unemployment rate.
Schröder's mediocre performance at the helm of the European presidency further reduced his standing. Not only did the chancellor renege on a promise to press for a financial rebate in order to stem the excesses of Germany's cheque-book diplomacy, but he was forced to look on helplessly as his colleagues diluted his proposals for the creation of a European Employment Pact. More flagrantly, Schröder bowed to French pressure to maintain the EU's agricultural subsidies, even though the planned induction of Poland into the EU is expected to blast the Union's budget if current rates are maintained. Finally, Schröder ended his presidency by snubbing traditional ally France, when he joined Blair in calling for a "Third Way" in the left-wing movement -- a euphemism for a rapprochement with centrist liberalism.
France's Lionel Jospin, on the other hand, who has stood firm against this milk-and-water brand of Socialism, benefited from his loyalty to traditional union voters. The French PM defied the general trend in 13 of the EU's 15 member states by actually strengthening his ruling Socialists' hand. The disarray of French President Jacques Chirac's RPR, which splintered into various pro- and anti-European groups, further boosted Jospin. The ecological Green Party also made an unexpectedly strong showing in France, catapulting the European Green movement to the position of fourth-strongest faction in the new EP. Flushed with success, its leader Daniel Cohn-Bendit asserted that his movement was the real "Third Way" of the left.
Voters rejected the idea of a European supra-national body politic in the elections -- either directly, as in Britain and Denmark, or by focusing on national issues, as in Germany. The governing Socialists and Social-Democrats, who lost almost across the board, are now riven with ideological debates. But the first Conservative majority in the new EP is also far from forming a homogeneous club. The European Peoples' Party (EPP), which now occupies 225 seats, includes not only Germany's pro-European CDU, but also Britain's Eurosceptic Tories. Even if the EPP closes ranks and joins forces with the Parliament's 43 Liberals, both groups still fall short of the 314-member majority required to amend decisions by the Council of Foreign Ministers. Realistically, they will have to reach out to the Socialists and the Greens to make use of their newly-won powers and amend proposals from the Council and the Commission.
Europe's governments, on the other hand, will find it more difficult to press for consumer protection or labour legislation. On the other hand, the need for consensus in the EP is also bound to make deputies less combative, which spells good news for Romano Prodi, the newly appointed president of the Commission, who plans to streamline the EU's executive body into something more closely resembling a real cabinet. While Prodi might still face a stand-off with the EP over his bid for the exclusive right to sack commissioners, he also asked member states to supply a politically balanced team. Prodi will need commissioners of all stripes and colours, if he is to co-operate with a conservative Assembly.
With the EP having metamorphosed into something closer to a real parliament, the Commission now looks poised to become more like a real government. Recent signs that the euro's slide toward the dollar might at long last be over might also turn monetary union into a more credible venture. In the long run, the Union's future is perhaps brighter than the oracles of these polls suggest.
