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Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 July 1999 Issue No. 437 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 July 1999 Issue No. 437
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Focus Books Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Squaring the Irish Circle
By Dominic ColdwellThe nineteenth century English novelist Samuel Butler once wrote that "in old times people [tried] to square the circle; now they devise schemes for satisfying the Irish nation." It is hard to miss the patronising, imperialist disdain in Butler's aphorism. But more than a hundred years later, Ireland's political problems appear no less intractable -- and this although British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern have produced a plan for rescuing implementation of the Good Friday Peace Agreement in Northern Ireland following marathon talks at Stormont Castle.
Last year's Easter treaty not only foresees the devolution of executive and legislative powers from Westminster to Northern Ireland, but also the disarmament of all paramilitary groups by May 2000. Seventy per cent of the province's population endorsed the compromise in a referendum that led to the formation of an Assembly with David Trimble, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), as Northern Ireland's "first minister." Loyalist forces decommissioned their weapons. But so far, Trimble has delayed devolution by barring Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), from entering his cabinet. Trimble's followers have cited the IRA's reluctance to turn over weapons as an obstacle to the planned power-sharing arrangement.
The compromise that has now emerged fixes devolution for 18 July, with decommissioning scheduled to begin shortly thereafter. Sinn Fein and the Unionists have two weeks to sell the package to their rank and file. But Tony Blair, who grandiloquently spoke of seizing "historic" opportunities, might soon discover that the Stormont deal leaves hopes for a better future stillborn.
During the talks, Unionists insisted that they would consider any formula in which devolution precedes decommissioning unacceptable. Trimble had earlier re-appointed the hard-line MP Jeffrey Donaldson to his negotiating team and called on Blair to sack the British Secretary for Northern Ireland, Dr Marjorie Mowlam, for alleged Republican sympathies.
Despite his criticism of the accord, the first minister has much to gain from the Stormont agreement. It is true that the current proposal deprives Trimble of his trump card; Unionists would no longer be able to press for disarmament by keeping Sinn Fein from office. On the other hand, the draft does contain a "failsafe" clause ensuring that Republicans would be slung neck and crop out of government should the IRA refuse to hand over its guns. Unionists have privately acknowledged that they never expected the IRA to decommission its entire arsenal. Because Trimble nonetheless supported the Good Friday Agreement, he has pocketed the dividends of peace, as unemployment rates in his Protestant constituencies dropped from 20 per cent in the 1980s to current levels of around three per cent.
Royal Ulster Constabulary (Police), move around Drumcree Parish Church at Portadown, Northen Ireland (photo: AP)
So where does the sudden resistance to compromise in the interests of peace stem from? On one hand, fears of renewed strife have dimmed Trimble's alacrity to make concessions. Last year's bomb attack in Omagh by Continuity IRA (CIRA), a splinter group of the Republican movement, has raised doubts about the sincerity of the IRA cease-fire. Two weeks ago, police arrested two men carrying 320 lbs. of explosives. Although Sinn Fein has said that the suspects were transporting materiel to prevent arms seizures by CIRA, the two men have asked to be admitted to an IRA section of prison. The recent release from gaol of a number of convicted IRA bombers, including the unrepentant would-be assassin of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, has also worried many Protestants that former terrorists could return to violence. Moreover, Unionists wonder who can actually deliver peace if, as he has repeatedly claimed, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams does not speak for the IRA. Trimble thus said that the Stormont proposal wrongly equates devolution among "democrats" with neutralisation of "terrorists."
On the other hand, Blair's record of leapfrogging over the question of disarmament has eroded British control of the Unionists. In a stinging editorial, the Times recently quipped that "the British and Irish governments, who at first called for prior decommissioning of IRA weapons before an executive was formed, and then recanted, and later sought parallel decommissioning and then relented, are now offering what could be charitably described as postponed decommissioning, but is in reality no decommissioning whatsoever."
Disappointment at Blair's acquiescence in the IRA's prevarication over the arms issue and fears of further violence have thus narrowed Trimble's space for manoeuvre. Only 24 members of the Northern Irish Assembly remain loyal to the Unionist leader. The loss of just four deputies would make it impossible for him to survive as first minister. So far, eight UUP delegates have opposed forming a coalition with Sinn Fein before an actual hand-over of weapons. Should Trimble's government collapse or his party split under British pressure to endorse Stormont, Blair will be left with a poor piece of brinkmanship. Regardless of whether Unionist fears are justified, it is myopic to alienate one of the main parties carrying the cross-party consensus for peace. The possible fall of Trimble's government would not only discredit the search for peace, but could also encourage militant Protestants, such as the "Orange Volunteers," the "Red Hand Defenders," or the "Spirit of Drumcree" to plug the vacuum and resort to paramilitary warfare.
Thus, not only Trimble is a-tremble. The beginning of the Protestant marching season has raised concerns among Catholics that sectarian clashes could spin out of control. Despite heavy security, last year's processions erupted in severe conflagrations. This year, the Parades Commission again banned Protestants from passing through a Catholic neighbourhood in Portadown, but an implicit promise to allow the delayed march to proceed in September still contains a lot of dry tinder. In addition, IRA disarmament will leave many Catholics feeling vulnerable so long as the British Army implicitly beefs up the Unionists.
Yet even if both Sinn Fein and the Unionists accept the current compromise, the Good Friday deal still risks throwing the baby out with the bath water. The power-sharing arrangement may be untested, but it is not difficult to spot flaws. The planned cabinet will not only yoke Sinn Fein to Trimble's UUP, but also to Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). In a well-functioning Parliament, it would already take some imagination to picture a party like Sinn Fein, which calls for the widescale redistribution of wealth, to enter a coalition with such economic ultra-conservatives. But in a region scarred with sectarian violence, it seems almost preposterous to suggest that the long-time champion of Irish unity should cooperate with a party that has rejected the Good Friday Agreements in toto. Even worse, the Peace Treaty actually cements the differences that it is ostensibly meant to overcome. In the interest of establishing full parity of parliamentary blocs, deputies are grouped according to their sectarian affiliations.
In the short run, the peace process could thus flounder either on the Unionist rejection of early devolution or on a possible split of the UUP. In the long run, the equality between Northern Ireland's parliamentary factions will most likely heighten centrifugal sectarian tendencies. But in either case, Northern Ireland looks set to go around in her sad, old circles.
