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Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 July 1999 Issue No. 437 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 8 - 14 July 1999 Issue No. 437
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Features Focus Books Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Carpe diem
By Salama Ahmed Salama
In a discussion of economic conditions in Egypt and the world held recently at the Mubarak Library, Kamal Darwish, vice-president of the World Bank, brought to the attention of the journalists and intellectuals who were present the problem of ageing societies that currently faces developed industrial countries, and especially Western societies.
Societies age because of an increase in the percentage of elderly people and a decline in the percentage of the working population. The vice-president of the World Bank noted that certain societies had already reached a crisis stage in terms of ageing. But he pointed to Egypt, on the other hand, which he said is distinguished by a young and vibrant population qualified to enter productive life.
The members of the productive age group in Egypt outnumber the population of the dependency group, which consists of those under 15 or over 65. Thanks to the very structure of its population, Egypt has a competitive edge, and is well equipped to address many economic challenges.
Advances in medical and social care, and improved access to better services in wealthy countries, have caused the mortality rate in those societies to drop. Child mortality has diminished, while average life expectancy has increased. As a result, more pressure is placed on the active population in the 20 to 60 age group. If the present trend persists, most Western countries will face a problem. Even the wealthiest countries will find the dependency burden intolerable.
In an article published in Foreign Affairs, the population in the over-65 age group in developed countries is estimated to have increased from two or three per cent to some 14 per cent over the past few decades, and is expected to soar to 25 or 30 per cent by 2030. Last but not least, in 20 years' time, the sharp divisions between countries in the world will not be explicable in terms of north and south, but of whether populations are young and active or ageing.
For societies, as for individuals, youth is but a brief span of time. Egypt has only another 15 years to take the greatest advantage of its youth resources. If it fails to make a leap forward and reach its development goals, it will have missed its once-in-a-lifetime chance -- forever.
