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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 July - 4 August 1999 Issue No. 440 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 July - 4 August 1999 Issue No. 440
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Watching and waiting
By Graham Usher and Dina EzzatPresident Hosni Mubarak is expected to meet today in Alexandria with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The two will discuss the future of the peace process as a whole, with a focus on the Palestinian track. Today's talks come only 48 hours after Barak's meeting with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.
Billed as their "first substantive discussion" since the Israeli elections, the meeting between Barak and Arafat on Tuesday night at Erez Checkpoint left the Palestinians with nothing more than a deepening sense of gloom and disappointment with the new Israeli premier. Despite two hours of talks, the only practical result was the setting up of a joint Israeli-Palestinian committee to address the issues raised at the meeting and report back to the two leaders in "about two weeks".
The dispute at hand remains the two sides' conflicting views over how and when the 1998 Wye River Memorandum should be implemented. On Tuesday, Barak repeated his call for the remaining Israeli troop redeployments stipulated under Wye (involving the transfer of about 10 per cent of West Bank territory to partial Palestinian Authority control) to be "combined" with Oslo's final status negotiations on borders.
Barak's argument appears to be that any further redeployment now would leave 15 Jewish settlements isolated in the West Bank, creating "an explosive situation from the security aspect". While promising to implement Wye "as it stands" if the Palestinians so desire, the Israeli leader warned that both sides would "have to carry the responsibility of the consequences" of such a move.
It is a burden Arafat appears eager to bear. At the press conference following what he described as "a candid exchange of views", the Palestinian leader insisted that his people "must see the precise, accurate implementation of all agreements signed, including Wye". As for the "security aspect", he reaffirmed the PA's "full commitment" to its obligations under the agreements, including "zero tolerance for violence and terror", whether from "Palestinians or Israelis". He also said he would "beef up" security cooperation with the US and Europeans, another part of Wye the Israeli leader would prefer to skip.
Given what is, if anything, a widening gap between the two sides, the joint committee is likely to be less a bridging mechanism than a convenient way for Israel to play for time. Barak will use the two-week hiatus to lobby for his position, first today in Cairo with President Mubarak and then with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright ahead of her trip to the Middle East in August.
Following the talks with Barak, the Palestinian president yesterday delegated his chief negotiator Saeb Ereikat to brief Foreign Minister Amr Moussa at length on the Erez talks. After the meeting, Ereikat told reporters he has asked Moussa to convey a clear message to President Mubarak: "The Palestinian stance is that we are against the combination of the transitional and permanent phases."
But some Arab diplomatic sources have been suggesting that the Palestinians' reluctance to "synchronise" the implementation of the Wye River Memorandum, or at least parts thereof, with some features of the final status talks is not entirely categorical.
The rationale is that, while the PA may feel disconcerted, or even apprehensive, about the reaction from the "Palestinian street" if the leadership accepts the proposed synchronisation, it also fears that, if it does not show Barak what the US describes as "encouragement", Barak may "defect" indefinitely from serious involvement in the Palestinian track and focus more on cutting a deal with the Syrians.
Indeed, informed Arab sources say that Barak convinced even the White House that Israel may need to give priority to the Syrian track. According to this logic, the Lebanese track will follow -- a major political victory for the Israeli premier.
For its part, Cairo is aware of this ominous rivalry. "We should avoid any unhealthy and unwanted clash between the different tracks," warned Foreign Minister Moussa. It seems, however, that this competition has become something of a fait accompli. According to one informed source: "The Syrians have made it clear that they are not going to wait for the Palestinians. Assad says the Palestinians never waited for them."
The Jordanians, too, have come to accept that it is the Syrian track which is likely to witness serious progress in the near future. Amman is now eagerly trying to take the lead in acting as a facilitator on this front.
Egypt, for its part, is quite concerned about developments. A marginalisation of the Palestinian track will rub salt in the wounds of inter-Arab relations. While trying to project as much optimism as possible, Cairo is also reluctant to take Barak's promises at face value. "We like to remain hopeful, but it is wisest to be cautious," said Moussa.
As a way out of potential snarls, Egypt seems to be pondering the wisdom of holding a series of inter-Arab meetings. A Syrian-Palestinian-Egyptian meeting, however, has been described as "very hard to get".
"We will have to listen to Barak first, and see what he has to offer. We will also need to listen to the US Secretary of State [due to visit Egypt in two weeks' time]. We will take it from there," said one Egyptian diplomat.
At any rate, nobody is expecting the coming few weeks to be easy, calm, or conclusive.
