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Al-Ahram Weekly 5 - 11 August 1999 Issue No. 441 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 5 - 11 August 1999 Issue No. 441
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Focus Interview Features Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Decommissioning
By Gavin Bowd
the peace processAfter excruciating negotiations, British Prime Minister Tony Blair agreed early in July to sign the "Way Forward Document", and proceed with devolution in Northern Ireland and set up a timetable for decommissioning weapons of the nationalist Irish Republican Army (IRA). But when pro-British Unionists refused to enter a coalition government with the IRA's political wing, Sinn Fein, Northern Ireland's First Minister David Trimble declared that the peace process had been "parked" so that it would not "crash". However, current developments suggest that it might never hit the road again, and may well be on its way to the scrapyard.
Trimble and the Unionists managed to resist a formidable political front, which united the British and Irish governments and parliaments, the White House, the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Sinn Fein.
In the charged atmosphere of the Protestant marching season, the Unionists refused to enter into a power-sharing arrangement with Sinn Fein, while its armed wing remained intact: a "nod-and-a-wink" understanding on decommissioning weapons did not suffice given the 3,500 people that have been left dead since British forces first beefed up their presence in Northern Ireland in response to civil unrest in 1969.
On the other hand, the IRA was afraid to lose face by making even the most symbolic hand-over of weapons before a Northern Ireland executive could be formed.
These irreconcilable positions feed on partial interpretations of last year's Good Friday Agreement, which foresees devolution for and power-sharing in Northern Ireland's newly created assembly.
Unionists overlook the fact that the IRA was not necessarily required to decommission its weapons before the formation of an Assembly. Sinn Fein, on the other hand, welcomed the early release of political prisoners, but did not show any eagerness to press the IRA to hand over its arms.
Recent events show the depth of distrust and the strength of hardliners in both parties. The IRA has warned the British government that any demand for "surrender" could put an end to its two-year ceasefire.
The Sinn Fein publicity officer, Danny Morrison, has said that the IRA will not decommission "even by the year 3000", while Gerry Adams refuses to commit his party to join the review of peace talks in September under the auspices of former US Senator George Mitchell.
The Unionists doubt the sincerity of paramilitaries, both nationalist Irish Republicans and pro-British Loyalists. Caught in the cross-fire, the SDLP's Seamus Mallon -- who resigned as deputy First Minister after Trimble "parked" the peace process -- attacks the dogmatism of both sides and warns that, if the review fails, politics in Ulster could be dead for years to come.
The dangers to Northern Ireland's fragile peace are very real. The seizure of 32 high-powered guns sent from the USA to Republicans is a worrying development. Whether they were destined for the IRA is not yet known, and difficult to ascertain given the effects of the cease-fire. But if they were, Republicans could use the weapons to join the campaign of "punishment shootings," which IRA members are suspected to have launched against former comrades for alleged collaboration with the British.
On the Loyalist side, the murder of a Catholic man in Belfast shows the ever-present threat of a resurgence of sectarian killing. Unionist politicians, who have repeatedly criticised Dr Marjorie Mowlam, the British secretary for Northern Ireland, for supposed Republican sympathies, have meanwhile decried Tony Blair's refusal to boot her out of office as a "disaster". All of this comes against a backdrop of rioting in nationalist areas and a High Court judgment guaranteeing the anonymity of soldiers implicated in the 1972 Bloody Sunday massacre, in which British soldiers shot 14 Catholics who were protesting detention without trial.
Currently, the decommissioning issue obstructs what could be one of the most important developments in all-Ireland politics in recent years: the normalisation of Sinn Fein. In June's local and European elections, the party of Gerry Adams nearly trebled its support in the Republic, by campaigning effectively on such issues as drugs and poverty. It is estimated that Sinn Fein could win up to four seats in the Dublin parliament in the next elections. In such a situation, John Bruton, the leader of Fine Gael, traditionally a conservative rival of Sinn Fein, has declared that, with the decommissioning issue resolved, this burgeoning party could participate in government in the south as well as in the north.
The stage would then be set for the end of a political system still structured by the Civil War of 1922-24 that led to the partition of Ireland into a southern Catholic state and a Northern British province with a Protestant majority. Bruton's inducements could lead Sinn Fein to reach a compromise drawing on Mitchell's much-vaunted skills.
The end of the marching season also coincides with the possible replacement of Mowlam by former Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Mandelson. Under these circumstances, David Trimble might agree to July's Way Forward Document drafted at Stormont Castle.
Then the parking lot might be abandoned in favour of a peace highway. But the connecting road is strewn with obstacles. The much-awaited report by Hong Kong's last governor, Chris Patten, on reforming the British security forces of the Royal Ulster Constabulary into regular police units, may please no one, and be put in abeyance by a worsening security situation.
Failure of forthcoming talks between Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists may torpedo any process. In September, George Mitchell could find himself in a negotiating room twice as empty as the Stormont chamber a month ago.
