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Al-Ahram Weekly 5 - 11 August 1999 Issue No. 441 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 5 - 11 August 1999 Issue No. 441
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Focus Interview Features Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters All my children
By Fatemah FaragEgypt's ills -- crowds, noise, lack of housing and employment opportunities -- are blamed on the fact that "there are too many people".
The population explosion is the topic of the day, and now it has gained even greater prominence with the release of the results of a new census prepared by the Central Authority for Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). Leafing through the weighty tome, one can crunch a few interesting digits: there were 60,705,839 citizens inside Egypt on 1/1/1998; the natural increase for 1998 was 1,287,480; 20,000 citizens returned from temporary migration in 1998. All these indicators resulted in a total number of inhabitants set at 62,013,319 on 1 January this year. The number of temporary migrants still abroad on 1/1/1999 was 1,902,000, bringing the grand total number of citizens both inside and outside the country to 63,915,319. In stark terms, Egypt's population increases by one inhabitant every 24.5 seconds.
Official discourse emphasises two aspects in its reading of these sobering figures: first, the ills that accompany rampant population growth; second, the fact that the new figures illustrate the success of family planning programmes. The average rate of population growth and the natural increase are now both around three per cent, which represents a concrete decrease in the rate of growth, explains Hisham Makhlouf, head of the Cairo Demographic Centre. "This reflects the success of the national population policy in limiting the danger of rapid population growth," he adds.
Population control became a national concern in 1965. That year, the Higher Council for Family Planning was established. The measure was followed in 1966 by the establishment of the Executive Authority for Family Planning. The latter initiated comprehensive government activity in the area of population control. At the time, 1,991 medical units under the supervision of the Ministry of Health were used as outlets for family planning activities. In the '70s, the strategy underwent a new development with the declaration of the National Policy for Population and Family Planning. Since then, propaganda in favour of limiting the number of children per family has become a part of daily life. Today, it would seem that the national project revolves solely around family planning.
To illustrate the success of the drive, officials point to statistical studies prepared in the '70s forecasting that Egypt's population would reach 74 to 77 million inhabitants by 2000. As things stand today, it is expected that Egypt's population will hit only 64 million by mid-2000. Extrapolating from the new figures, the World Bank has estimated that Egypt's population will reach 78 million in 2010, 84 million in 2015 and 89 million in 2020. Hence the official jubilation at the family planning programme, which is hailed as sparing Egypt the birth of 12 million babies.
The fact that the use of contraceptives increased by seven per cent between 1992 and 1997, while total fertility rates levelled off at 3.3 per cent, is also highlighted. "The national census undertaken on fertility, family planning, and family health indicates that rates of childbirth have decreased from 5.3 children per woman of childbearing age in 1980 to 3.3 children per woman in 1997. Furthermore, the use of contraceptives has increased among married women, from 24 per cent in 1980 to about 55 per cent in 1997," elaborates Makhlouf.
photo: Khaled El-Fiqi
Nader Fergany, director of the Almishkat Centre for Research, points out, however, that "the decrease in birth rates in Egypt was achieved primarily among the more affluent and educated strata of society, especially in urban areas where these social groups were exposed to decreases in economic standards." Fergany explains that these changes resulted in a decrease in the rate of marriage and an increase in the average age of marriage, both of which affect the number of children each family has, as well as the use of contraceptives.
He adds, "These [social] strata are inclined to adopt non-traditional values and behaviour patterns. Besides, children do not represent a source of income to these families, as is the case among poorer social strata. We know that the use of contraceptives increases in urban areas and decreases to the lowest levels among the rural poor." In other words, the poor continue to have more children, basically because children are a vital source of income and are the most reliable support mechanism for parents when they grow older. The irony is that those who suffer the most from the ills allegedly resulting from population growth are most responsible for the phenomenon.
Population increase is, simply put, a function of the discrepancy between births and deaths. In Egypt, the mortality rate ranged around 26 per 1,000 until the end of World War II. Since then, this rate has steadily decreased, ranging around six to seven per 1,000 today. At the same time, there has been no decrease in the number of births -- until recently, that is. This could explain the rapidity of population growth over the past 200 years. The first available population figures for Egypt indicate that in 1800, Egypt's total population was 2.5 million, a figure that doubled by 1900. It took another 50 years for the population to double once again, from five to 10 million, and only 28 years for it to double yet again.
It is easy, however, to get caught up in all these figures and to forget that they are not necessarily objective truths. Fergany offers an alternative view of the new census's relevance. "The more predominant [formulation], in view of the support of funding within the international arena, is one which is more blatant and aims at decreasing the rates of population growth. The simple, but naive, argument used is: population growth 'eats up' the achievements of development and hence we must decrease population growth. But in reality if there was development there wouldn't have been a problem to start with. The 'population problem' is a false problem on which to pin [our inability to develop]."
The official position, however, claims to take developmental concerns into consideration. A popular example used to illustrate the detrimental effects of population growth is the fact that the quota of land per person has decreased by one half in past years, which in turn makes it necessary that a greater portion of the GNP be spent on importing food. Another problem is that approximately 98 per cent of the population inhabits only five per cent of the country's total area.
"The national population policy has specified three dimensions to the population problem: rapid growth, the decrease in the quality of life and poor geographic distribution. So the success in bringing rapid growth rates down must be paralleled with [improvements] in population indicators in education, health, mother and child care, and the development of human resources... in addition to serious efforts in achieving balanced geographic distribution," adds Makhlouf.
Fergany, however, emphasises another point: just as the success of population control efforts is announced, "the results of meticulous studies show the halt in the spread of education, the prevalence of illiteracy and the decrease in the achievement of basic skills through education. The increase in unemployment, especially among educated youths, is also a waste of human resources, the most important resource in a country like Egypt." Finally, Fergany points to increasing poverty and the maldistribution of resources, concluding that money spent on family planning is best spent elsewhere. "In the final analysis, population growth is only a marginal issue. Concentrating on it without concern for the basics is a waste of time and effort... Building sophisticated human capital... is the core of human development in a country like Egypt."
This is exactly what the government argues it is doing. "We must point out the positive efforts exerted in these areas: giant projects in all areas of social and economic development. For example, the Decade for the Eradication of Illiteracy and the Decade of the Egyptian Child in addition to the development project south of the Delta... all these are positive efforts that will bear fruit in the near future," notes Makhlouf.
Still, every minute a few more babies join the population. "My children are my support," said Madiha Abduh as she hugged her newborn boy. "Maybe we should have fewer children, but they are the best thing in our lives."
