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Al-Ahram Weekly 12 - 18 August 1999 Issue No. 442 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 12 - 18 August 1999 Issue No. 442
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Profile Books Features Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles People Cartoons Letters Changing of the (old) guard
By Salama Ahmed Salama
It is absurd that foreigners should be more interested than we are in matters related to succession or changes in government and the implications of such events for the stability of the region. Foreign observers respond promptly to such changes, studying their impact on relations between the Arab world and the West, both in terms of the peace process and the fate of Israel itself.
The succession to the Moroccan throne is still under intense scrutiny. The fact that King Hassan II died only a few months after King Hussein of Jordan suggests that a new generation of Arab rulers is acceding to power. The new rulers, who are young and more flexible, represent an Arab elite who studied in Europe and the US. Thus groomed, they are believed to be more practically minded and less liable to cling to nationalism and the other ideologies that have defined the region for the past 50 years, impairing relations between the Arabs and the West and, naturally, between the Arabs and Israel. This, however, is not necessarily the case.
Besides Jordan and Morocco, observers are monitoring changes in the Arab Gulf. The present emir of Qatar came to the throne by unseating his father; in Bahrain, the son followed his father. In Algeria, Bouteflika is in power. Western observers remark that this "new generation" is more liberal. Born into a world where Israel already existed, they are more prepared than the previous generation to deal with that state. Modernisation and democratisation will occur through the introduction of certain mechanisms (the holding of general elections, the representation of women on local assemblies, the granting of certain freedoms and access to new means of communication); but it will take far more to satisfy the demands and aspirations of the people.
Foreign observers are continually engaged in an elaborate and unfettered case-by-case discussion of Arab politics. Their interpretations and expectations shape their policies. Thus, they are adequately prepared when change suddenly takes place. People in most Arab countries, on the other hand, wait for things to happen without wondering how to react. Only a few Arab countries have systems of succession enshrined in their constitutions and ensuring a smooth rotation of power. In the majority of cases, long-standing traditions and tribal balances of power are the final determinants for succession -- through a coup d'état, if patience runs out.
With the peace process coming to a head, debate is growing more intense by the day. Western and Israeli observers are banking on the ambiguity of the mechanisms of succession in both Syria and Palestine. They hope the uncertainty involved will turn events to Israel's favour, both in terms of what Barak would like to implement and what he would rather not discuss. This applies to agreements signed with the Palestinians, and President Assad's hard line on withdrawal from the Golan Heights and south Lebanon. Observers believe that time is on Israel's side. This explains Barak's manoeuvring and procrastination, which are serving him well with the Arabs. But how long can Israel or the West depend on a tiny elite of rulers, especially when it is no longer a simple matter to discern the difference between the will of a ruler, regardless of the time of regime he rules over, and that of his people?
It is clear, however, that the modernisation of the systems of government in the Arab world is more responsive to the wishes of the people and more reflective of popular will. It is also clear that the new generation of Arab rulers is showing greater respect for the standards of democracy and fundamental freedoms, at least in matters purporting to the fate of their people.
