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Al-Ahram Weekly 19 - 25 August 1999 Issue No. 443 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 19 - 25 August 1999 Issue No. 443
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Features Profile Travel Living Sports Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Focusing on the Syrian track
By Lamis AndoniSince Ehud Barak came to power in Israel two months ago, peace between Israel and Syria has emerged as a priority item on the American agenda for the Middle East. Washington believes that time is more favourable now than ever for sealing an Israeli-Syrian peace treaty.
Syrian-Israeli reconciliation has become more pressing given the American objective of establishing a regional security order, led by Israel and probably Turkey, that would open markets and ensure America's economic and political influence in the region. To attain this objective, the US believes that opposition to normalisation with Israel has to be marginalised while more Muslim and Arab countries should be brought on board of regional economic cooperation agreements with Israel.
Six years after the Oslo Accords, the US administration regrets that normalisation does not include more countries or, more importantly, the business sectors in the Arab and Muslim World. Meanwhile opposition to normalisation remains vocal and sometimes effective. Iran, despite signs of change under President Mohamed Khatami, has not stopped supporting "radical" groups, while Iraq enjoys relatively broad sympathy in the Arab streets. Consequently, Syria, with its sensitive geopolitical setting and influence, remains the missing link.
Decision-makers in Washington echoed this view repeatedly, albeit in different forms, throughout the year. But perhaps assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, Martin Indyk, has been the most straight-forward. In recent speeches to think-tanks, Indyk explained that a Syrian-Israeli peace treaty was a high priority for the current administration. "This is not only because of our commitment to a comprehensive peace. It is also because an Israel-Syria peace agreement would have important regional benefits: a secure Israeli-Lebanese border, the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict; the isolation of those parties that continue to reject peace and reconciliation; and the easing of pressure against normalisation of relations between the Arab world and Israel," he said.
The statement underscores two crucial perceptions of the Oslo process. First, in American eyes, the Oslo process has made important, but limited steps toward ending the Israeli-Arab conflict and fully integrating Israel into the region.
Secondly, Oslo has on the other hand succeeded in detaching the Syrian track from the Palestinian cause, which allows the US and Israel to address narrower Syrian interests as a basis for negotiations.
The administration now believes that a permanent solution to the Palestinian issue is no longer a prerequisite for ending the Israeli-Arab conflict. Yet American decision-makers are also keenly aware that a resumption of smooth negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians with at least a semblance of progress is crucial to keep the Palestinian issue from obstructing a broader Arab-Israeli peace deal.
And this is partly why US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright not only agreed to postpone her trip, but urged Barak, in accordance with the Wye accords, to start the second phase of Israeli troop redeployments before she sets foot in the region. Albright and Barak reportedly agree that the stage should be set for American mediation with Syria.
Washington, which closely monitors Damascus, has been aware of President Hafez Al-Assad's desire to see his son Bashar succeed him. This would require ending the state of war with Israel in the ailing leader's lifetime. Al-Assad's unexpected presence at the funeral of the late Jordanian monarch Hussein and his subsequent call to Hussein's successor, King Abdullah, for mediation with Washington and perhaps even Israel, underscores Syria's eagerness to fit into the new global order. The US has already resumed contacts with Assad and, according to Indyk, talks were underway for at least six months before King Hussein's death, to accelerate the process of Syria's "rehabilitation."
In addition, the deportation of Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan from Syria last year and reported Syrian calls to Palestinian opposition groups to disarm satisfied the "encouraging signals" that Washington has been awaiting, or might even have specifically demanded.
Syria has also sent clear signals that it is abandoning its pan-Arab commitment to the Palestinian issue. According to Palestinian opposition officials, Abdel-Halim Khaddam, the Syrian vice-president, told them that "from now on Syria would focus exclusively on its interests."
But Syria's weight in possible peace negotiations also stems from the effective resistance that Hizbullah fighters have put up in south Lebanon. Having impressed upon Israel and the US the urgent need to end the Israeli occupation, Hizbullah has foiled attempts to separate the Syrian and Lebanese tracks in the peace process.
According to most observers, the US administration has been working hard to set the stage for a big breakthrough that could crown Clinton's presidency before he steps down next year. But these ambitions will hinge on whether Israel can smooth out its differences with the Palestinians, an effort which the Americans are relying on Barak's velvet glove and official complacency to sustain.
