Al-Ahram Weekly 19 - 25 August 1999 Issue No. 443
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

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The times, they are a-changing

By Gamal Nkrumah

Though recent efforts on the part of Egypt and Libya to mediate in the political crisis in Sudan have excited the Sudanese opposition, observers have nevertheless warned that Cairo and Tripoli will need to move fast if they are to guard against losing the current momentum. The Sudanese opposition has long been of the opinion that the best mode of defense is offense. The intriguing question now is whether Cairo and Tripoli can convince the Sudanese opposition to desist from armed struggle and to opt for a negotiated settlement.

In principle this was agreed last month, when the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Eritrea-based umbrella organisation that groups together the Sudanese opposition parties, agreed at a meeting in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, to pursue the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the Sudanese crisis. However though Sayid Al-Mahdi, leader of the 'Umma Party and Othman Al-Mirghani, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, were present, John Garang, the leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) was conspicuous only by his absence. This will have made those seeking a negotiated settlement uneasy, for the SPLA is the leading armed group fighting for the autonomy of southern Sudan and for its secularisation.

The SPLA, which is believed to be unhappy with persistent reports in the Arab media that paint Garang as a separatist leader, over the past few years has made sweeping inroads into various parts of northern Sudan, including the Nuba Mountains region of Kordofan province, and certain areas of the Dar Fur and Blue Nile provinces. The southern garrison town of Yei, together with a string of smaller settlements in the vicinity, have also been retaken by the SPLA from government forces. It has, however, failed to dislodge government troops from the southern Sudanese capital, Juba.

However in addition to the military issue, a no less burning question for Cairo and Tripoli in their mediation efforts is whether they can persuade Khartoum to agree to dialogue on human rights, democratisation and political pluralism with the various opposition groups. The ruling National Islamic Front (NIF) in the Sudan has not shown itself to be in a hurry to abrogate the so-called Tawalie Law, which controls political parties in the country, and neither has it indicated that it will repeal the National Security Law. Many Sudanese opposition figures feel that neither Egypt nor Libya has much leverage with Khartoum in the absence of common ideology, military links or extensive economic or commercial ties with the Sudan. And some NDA leaders are privately concerned about Cairo's and Tripoli's resolve, pointing out that recent pronouncements from Libya suggest that Tripoli might be having second thoughts about putting pressure on Khartoum to introduce democratisation and pluralism.

According to Cairo-based Sudanese observers, who requested anonymity, Khartoum's more recent overtures appear to be aimed at co-opting certain elements of the opposition without losing overall control. Perhaps what Khartoum really sought was the continuation of the status quo, underwritten by Cairo and by Tripoli, which would then effectively neutralize the opposition, they said. Southern opposition figures fear that the present international initiative might even result in the splitting of the NDA, with the northern 'Umma and DUP parties finally succumbing to the combined pressure of Tripoli, Khartoum and Cairo.

However, as Mansour Khalid, former Sudanese foreign minister and now an ambassador for the SPLA, told Al-Ahram Weekly, "The NDA position is very clear -- a permanent and peaceful resolution to the Sudanese political crisis is conditional on the Asmara resolution. There must be a complete separation between religion and the state, decentralisation of power, and an affirmation that the Sudan is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation."

There must be "a transitional period before free and fair elections take place, when the government must relinquish many of its powers and permit pluralistic democracy. The regime must abandon its attempts to impose an Islamist ideology on a multi-religious, multi-cultural nation, and it must signal a clear departure from the religious and cultural hegemony it has systematically upheld," he said.

Khalid, who also said that Sudan must be extensively economically restructured in order to overcome the traditional North-South divide and other inequalities, said that he was optimistic regarding a successful outcome to the talks. "We are optimistic because both the Egyptians and the Libyans listened attentively to us. The ball is now in the [Sudanese] government's court," he said. However he added that those who had committed human rights violations during the crisis would have to be brought to book before any just settlement could be reached.

Khalid affirmed the unity of the NDA, commenting that there was "no question of splits within the NDA. We are united as never before." Recent attempts at a possible peaceful resolution of the Sudanese crisis did not represent a policy shift on the part of the NDA, but, on the contrary, were 'a serious attempt to look into all possible means of resolving the Sudanese political crisis,' he said.

Farouk Abu Eissa, secretary-general of the Cairo-based Arab Lawyers Union and official spokesman for the NDA, concurred with Khalid. "We have several options: an intifada, or popular uprising; the armed struggle to overthrow the regime by force and a peaceful resolution of the Sudanese crisis through a negotiated settlement," he said, expressing his belief that a negotiated settlement represented the best solution.

"However let it be understood that a peace settlement cannot be unconditional," he warned.

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