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Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 September 1999 Issue No. 448 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 23 - 29 September 1999 Issue No. 448
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Egypt Region International Economy Opinion Culture Comment Focus Special Features Profile Travel Living Sports People Time Out Chronicles Cartoons Letters Calling it quits
By Gihan Shahine
Here is a puzzle: although the absolute number of those getting divorced jumped from 71,000 in 1997 to 90,000 in 1998, marking a sharp increase of 20,000 divorce cases over one year, some experts still view this as a decrease in divorce rates.
These figures are among the findings of a recent census released by the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS). The census, however, does not provide any analysis of the figures provided; nor will CAPMAS officials comment on their findings. "We cannot say whether divorce is on the increase, because this would necessitate a study of divorce that takes into account population census and marriage rates," explains Mustafa Gaafar, CAPMAS deputy chairman. "Our job is only to provide figures; it's up to sociologists to analyse them."
Gaafar will cite relevant statistics that may help complete the picture, however. The recent census reveals an increase in the absolute number of those getting married: 526,000 marriages were recorded in 1998, compared to 493,000 in 1997. The number of unmarried people is 8,982,868 -- 26.4 per cent of those of marriageable age (which starts at 16 for females and 18 for males).
Where do these figures come from? "We mainly depended on the official records of the Ministry of Justice in collecting divorce rates for the years 1997-'98," Gaafar explains. CAPMAS collects data in two ways: a massive undertaking, once every decade, aimed at counting the entire population; and a once-yearly count based on official records. "There is no doubt that the first method is more accurate, since census researchers actually visit almost every single household nationwide to collect data. But the second type of data collection is also at least 95 per cent reliable," Gaafar maintains.
But is a rise of 20,000 divorce cases in one year possible? The answer remains debatable. The figures, at any rate, have been making newspaper headlines since their release almost two weeks ago; a chorus of public alarm over the fate of family life in Egypt can be heard.
Many experts would agree that divorce rates have skyrocketed in the past few years. Ahmed El-Magdoub, a sociologist and researcher at the National Centre for Sociological and Criminological Studies (NCSCS), even suggests that actual figures are sometimes higher than official records. According to El-Magdoub, a third of the 90,000 marriages contracted every year end in divorce. Islamic scholar Abdallah Shehata concurred on a recent television programme, remarking that a couple is divorced every six minutes in Egypt. According to Ali Sahaba, president of the Personal Status Court of Appeal, the court has recently been "inundated with claims of divorce filed by people from all social strata".
But Barbara Ibrahim, Population Council regional director for West Asia and North Africa (WANA -- an international NGO providing research and information on population-relevant issues), asserts that the new divorce census should not cause too much alarm. She confidently produces a CAPMAS table recording divorce and marriage rates since the turn of the century in Egypt and smiles. "As we, in WANA, were looking at the trends in divorce for the entire century in Egypt, it was really striking to us that, in fact, divorce has decreased," Ibrahim explains.
Ibrahim points to some figures in support of her statement: in the 1907 census, the rate of divorce was 3.3 per cent of people of marriageable age. By 1960, it was down to 2.5 per cent, and in 1970 it was 2.0 per cent. The 1986 census reveals a further drop of divorce rates to 1.4; in 1996, the last fully reliable census, it went down again, to 1.2 per cent. "I do not really have specific information about the past two years, but it's really hard to believe that a century-long trend is suddenly showing a reversal over a single year," Ibrahim maintains. "But now if we overlook absolute figures and consider the divorce rates, we will find them in line with the century-long decrease in divorce."
The 1998 divorce rate is estimated at 0.78 per cent of people of marriageable age -- a decrease from the 1.2 per cent recorded in 1996. "You see, what really matters here is the rate," Ibrahim explains. The absolute number of divorces has increased, Ibrahim adds, because the population is mushrooming. Egypt also has an increasingly young population due to high birth rates. So as the absolute number of people increases, the absolute number of people getting divorced must also increase. "If people don't understand how statistics work they can get very worried," Ibrahim explains. "This new census alarms everyone. But if we put it into a historical perspective we can all sleep tonight -- although, of course, even one divorce is considered a tragedy."
Mahmoud Ghoneim, of the Ministry of Justice, concurs. "The number of divorces has increased simply because of the recent growth in population, but it has never reached the level of a phenomenon," he maintains. For Ghoneim, figures are not always an accurate indication. "CAPMAS officials only transcribe numbers of divorce cases without analysing the figures," he notes. "These figures, however, are not an accurate indication of divorce rates in Egypt. Many of those who file for divorce, for example, may change their minds, or see their claims rejected. There are also men who take advantage of their right to repeal a divorce within three months of obtaining it. If figures are to be taken as an indication, they have to be carefully analysed and studied, taking marriage and birth rates into consideration."
So why does everyone insist divorce is on the rise? "I think it's people's perception," Ibrahim suggests. "People hear more about divorce because it's more discussed than it was in the past." The reason may be that divorce is becoming increasingly problematic. The costs of divorce are now much higher.
In the past, high rates of divorce did not necessarily imply social disruption. Today, however, divorced people may face difficulties finding the means to remarry, especially given the housing crisis. Economically, it is far harder to survive as a single woman, in the absence of an extended family. If a man divorces his wife, he will still have to pay child support; it is becoming increasingly difficult for men to maintain two or three households. All these factors, Ibrahim believes, have made divorce the talk of the day.
"Again, you should also consider the possibility that when something affects the middle class, it becomes widely talked about in Egypt," she adds. "So it's possible that all over the country the rates of divorce are not going up, but they may be rising in a certain class that makes the headlines, does the research and writes the articles."
Azza Kurayyem, a sociologist at the NCSCS, disagrees. "No matter what figures may indicate, many social factors indicate a significant increase in divorce rates, which I expect will continue to rise if society does not change its attitude towards marriage," she maintains. Materialism, Kurayyem feels, conditions many marital choices. Emotions and mutual understanding are largely overlooked. "This results in fragile marriages that flounder once a problem pops up," Kurayyem warns. "It also conflicts with the major change in women's expectations. Today, women get married later in their lives and are mostly employed. They are no longer seeking a breadwinner, but rather a loving and understanding husband -- a wish that cannot be fulfilled given the way marriages are being handled."
Ibrahim agrees that a materialistic view of marriage has become a main factor in divorce. "It would make a big difference if young couples put less emphasis on material success, for my guess is that most divorces today are due to dissatisfaction," she maintains. "I believe the biggest single factor that would decrease rates of divorce would be if couples had realistic expectations going into marriage, if they were mature enough to know what marriage means."
Many sociologists agree that young people need better education on issues pertaining to marriage and the many religious and legal issues involved. The findings of a recent survey carried out on a sample of adolescents aged between 16 and 19 are a case in point.
The "Adolescence and Social Change in Egypt" (ASCE) survey, launched by WANA, reveals that when 730 adolescents were asked about the meaning of 'isma (the legitimate right to divorce), correct answers were given by 26 per cent of girls, 13 per cent of boys, 29 per cent of those with no schooling, and 11 per cent of those with a university education. Boys and girls were also asked whether they approve of a husband or wife initiating divorce in a number of situations, ranging from everyday household management issues to more serious issues such as domestic violence. Boys were generally more approving of divorce overall, while both adolescent girls and boys were more likely to approve of a husband initiating divorce than a wife, even in similar situations.
More important, however, is the conclusion that although the transition to marriage and reproductive roles carries adolescents through physical and social changes, many adolescents do not have the necessary basic information. They refrain from speaking to parents and other adults, but at the same time they would like more information and guidance.
"People need someone to talk to and perhaps they feel their parents cannot understand them," Ibrahim notes. "It would be a great idea for an NGO to handle programmes that help parents open channels of communication with their children."
Until then, Kurayyem suggests, the media and educationalists should educate both parents and young people on what to expect in marriage and how to handle marital problems. "After all, family life is the cornerstone of society. Anything that endangers it endangers society at large," Kurayyem concludes.
